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APRIL 20,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:04 P.M. ET:

SIGN OF THE TIMES – The Congressional Budget Office said today that 45 million Americans received food stamps in 2011, a 70% increase since 2007.  The Office said that the program would continue growing until 2014, when the economy, at least according to today's statement, is expected to improve.

THE MARCH OF SCIENCE – Writing in Forbes, climage-change militant Steve Zwick argued that those who deny global warning should be tracked, hunted, and their homes burned to the ground.  This comes a month after an Oregon professor said that climage-change skeptics should be regarded as racists, and treated for mental illness.  In 2006 an environmental magazine said that deniers should face war-crimes tribunals.  Thus the march of "science" continues.  Don't you dare ask questions.

WARNING – MADNESS AHEAD – An upcoming UN conference, supported by the Obama administration, will propose the transfer of billions of dollars from "wealthy" countries to poor ones to build a "green infrastructure," "climate adaptation," and other "green economy" measures.  It looks like another get-rich-quick scheme for third-world dictators, climate hustlers and the UN itself.  I don't think it will have much chance of getting through the U.S. Congress, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Obamans support at least part of the gimmick, if they're around after the election.

CAUGHT – Massachusetts high moralizer and Dem Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, has been caught in high hypocrisy by the fightin' campaign of Republican Senator Scott Brown.  Seems that Massachusetts has a basic tax rate, but you can pay a set higher rate if you wish to.  Warren had rapped Brown for voting against the "Buffett rule," which would increase taxes for millionaires.  It now turns out that Warren, who is loaded, pays only the basic tax rate in her own state.  “The problem with running a campaign based on self-righteousness and moral superiority is that you had better live up to the same standard you would impose on everyone else,” Brown's campaign manager said. “Millionaire Warren lectures others about their obligation and responsibility to pay higher taxes, but she refuses to pay the optional higher rate available in Massachusetts.”  Still, Warren is expected to give Brown a very tough fight in blue Massachusetts, and has a reasonable chance of winning.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

ZIMMERMAN BAILED – AT 11:27 A.M. ET:   From Fox:

A Florida judge has set bail for at $150,000 for George Zimmerman, who is charged with second degree murder in the shooting death of Trayvon Martin.

The bail was announced at a hearing Friday, shortly after Zimmerman took the witness stand, telling the parents of Martin, "I am sorry for the loss of your son," but standing by his claim that he killed the teen in self-defense.

COMMENT:  There are no signs of disturbances in the community in response to the bail ruling, but we'll wait.

April 20, 2012        Permalink

JEB ENDORSES MARCO FOR V.P. – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:   Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is pushing Senator Marco Rubio for vice president, even though Rubio has repeatedly said he doesn't want to be on the ticket:

“I think Mitt needs to stay above the fray a bit, and to offer a hopeful message that can lift people’s spirits up because after the end of this four or five months of really negative campaigning,” Bush added. “ I think people are going to be motivated by a more positive message.”

Bush called Rubio “probably the best” candidate for vice president on a list that likely includes himself — the son of former President George H.W. Bush, and the brother of former President George W. Bush.

“Well I can’t speak for Gov. Romney, and I can’t speak for Sen. Rubio, but if I was on both sides of that conversation I would ask — and I would hope that Marco would accept,” Bush said. “There’s a lot of things in between that may not make that happen, but I am a great admirer of Mitt Romney’s and I’m a huge fan of Marco Rubio’s, and I think the combination would be extraordinary.”

So do I. 

There are two new Fox News polls out that show what a tough fight this will be.  Ohio and Florida are two swing states that the Republicans are determined to carry this year.  I can't see Romney winning without at least one of them.  I can't see Obama winning if he loses both.

Yet, both states are tipping toward Obama.  In Ohio Obama leads 45-39%, a reverse from the 44-38% lead that Romney enjoyed in February.  In Florida Obama leads  45-43%.  Both polls were taken among registered voters.  Polls among likely voters generally show stronger numbers for the Republican candidate. 

The fact that both polls show Obama at a high of 45% is actually good news for Romney.  If an incumbent president can't hit 50%, he's usually considered by political experts to be in some trouble.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

THERE GOES FRANCE – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:   French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been the most pro-American leader France has had in many years.  We've been lucky, and Obama, whether he realizes it or not, has been lucky. 

But it looks like our luck is about to end.  Americans haven't followed the French election campaign very closely, and yet it will impact us and our foreign policy.  It appears that Sarkozy will soon be out of power:

(Reuters) - Voters look set to turn their backs on conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's first round of an election that could give France its first left-wing president in 17 years just as fears resurface over Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

A sickly economy and a deep dislike of Sarkozy's flashy style have dominated the campaign, but the outside world's doubts about France's commitment to balance its public finances are also at stake as feeble growth threatens deficit-cutting targets in Europe's No. 2 economy.

The centre-right president, an impulsive showman, and his bland Socialist challenger, Francois Hollande, are neck-and-neck in opinion polls for the first round on about 27-28 percent. But Hollande has a wide lead in voting intentions for a May 6 runoff between the top two candidates.

And...

Hollande, 57, promises to tread a fiscally responsible path, but his focus on tax rises over spending cuts and his call to renegotiate a European budget discipline pact has some analysts concerned that he would create a new euro zone stress point.

COMMENT:  From what I've read, Hollande has no particular desire to go back to the confrontational attitude toward America of some past French governments.  But he is a socialist, and his economic policies can profoundly affect Europe, and, by extension, us. 

Stand by for the vote.  We will miss Sarkozy, even if the French won't.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

OBAMA FACING DEM REVOLT? – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:   Byron York, in the Washington Examiner, says yes, that some Democrats in Congress are now in open revolt against President Obama's stalling of the Keystone Pipeline from Canada. 

While much of the political world obsesses over Twitter fights and Seamus the dog, Barack Obama has set himself up for a high-profile defeat on one of the most important issues of the campaign.

The president has put his feet in cement in opposition to the Keystone oil pipeline. But on Capitol Hill, more and more Democrats are joining Republicans to force approval of the pipeline, whether Obama wants it or not.

The latest action happened Wednesday, when the House passed a measure to move the pipeline forward. Before the vote, Obama issued a veto threat. The House approved the pipeline anyway -- by a veto-proof majority, 293 to 127. Sixty-nine Democrats abandoned the president to vote with Republicans. That's a lot of defections.

When the House voted on the pipeline in July of last year, 47 Democrats broke with the president. Now that it's an election year and the number is up to 69, look for Republicans to hold more pipeline votes before November. GOP leaders expect even more Democrats to join them.

Then there is the Senate. Democrats are using the filibuster to stop the pipeline, which means 60 votes are required to pass it. (Some Democrats who bitterly opposed the filibuster when Republicans used it against Obama initiatives are notably silent these days.) In a vote last month, 11 Senate Democrats stood up against Obama to vote in favor of the pipeline. Add those 11 to the Republicans' 47 votes, and the pro-pipeline forces are just a couple of votes away from breaking Harry Reid's filibuster.

"We're right around the corner from actually passing it," says a well-informed Senate source. "Two-hundred-ninety-three votes in the House is a gigantic number. People want this thing."

COMMENT:  That's incredible.  But wait.  We have Chicago politicians running the country, and they can count.  Don't be shocked if Obama suddenly gets a pre-election "report" from some mysterious office of government saying the pipeline no longer poses an environmental threat.  And, poof, Obama signs an approval statement.  He then goes to the people and says, "I approved the pipeline.  I love the pipeline.  I want to marry the pipeline.  I want to start a family with the pipeline.  But I did it right."

Coming to a TV screen near you.

April 20, 2012        Permalink 

THE TRAYVON MARTIN CASE – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  This will be a big day in the Martin case, which has now become a national event, and, to a degree, a national farce of the O.J. Simpson type.

A judge will decide today whether to grant bail to the shooter, George Zimmerman.  According to most of the analyses I've read, Zimmerman is an excellent candidate for bail.  He has no criminal record and he has ties to his community.  He turned himself in, negating the notion that he'd be a flight risk. 

Indeed, it seems the only reason a judge could deny jail in this explosive case is for political reasons – to once again placate those calling for Zimmerman's scalp.  This case is way overcharged.   Zimmerman is charged with second-degree murder, and I've not seen one credible legal authority, commenting on the case, who believes that charge can be sustained.  Indeed, Alan Dershowitz of Harvard calls it unethical.

Reports out of Florida say that law enforcement is preparing for the possibility that Zimmerman will be released on bail, and that violence could follow.  Barriers are already up at the courthouse.  How disgraceful this has become.

At the same time, in a major development, ABC News has obtained a photo of George Zimmerman taken only minutes after he did shoot and kill Trayvon Martin.  The story and photo are here.  (The photo is linked within the story.)  From the story:

A new photograph obtained exclusively by ABC News showing the bloodied back of George Zimmerman's head, which was apparently taken three minutes after he shot and killed Trayvon Martin, gives possible credence to his claim that Martin had bashed his head against the concrete as Zimmerman fought for his life.

The revelation comes as his attorney and prosecutors prepare for Zimmerman's bail hearing today, which could result in his being released from a Florida jail. Zimmerman, 28, is being held on charges of second-degree murder for the Feb. 26 shooting of Martin, 17, which could carry a life sentence if he is convicted.

The exclusive image shows blood trickling down the back of Zimmerman's head from two cuts. It also shows a possible contusion forming on the crown of his head. The original police report that night notes that the back of Zimmerman's head was wet, and that he was bleeding from the nose and head.

COMMENT:  If the photo can be authenticated, it's hard to believe any jury will convict this man of second-degree murder.  Indeed, it's hard to believe a judge would even permit the charge to be continued.  But I am not a lawyer, or an expert in the Florida legal process.  We have readers with better credentials.  Please write us your views.

April 20,  2012      Permalink

APRIL 19,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:22 P.M. ET: 

NOT THIS FORD IN MY FUTURE – Ford's CEO tells us that the cost of a battery pack for an electric Ford Focus is $12,000 to $15,000.  By contrast, a complete, comparable gasoline-powered car costs about $22,000.  Do you get the feeling that some of this technology isn't quite ready for prime time?  I have the sense that the automotive battery business is still the equivalent of 8-track tapes.

CALLING AL GORE – There is a great deal of rough weather in Britain.  After a bitter winter, the exact opposite of what we had here, some forecasters are saying that part of Britain is in store for the coldest or near-coldest May in 100 years.   Of course, this is all due to global warming, as was our unnaturally warm winter.  And if icebergs form off the coast of Florida, that's global warming, too.  Igloos in France?   Global warming.  The moral of the story is that, each day, more and more questions arise about the "science" of climate change.  We need a Challenger-like commission to look into all the contradictory claims.

YES, CRY FOR ME, ARGENTINA –  We noted this morning that President Obama refuses to side with our closest ally, Great Britain, in its dispute with Argentina over the Falkland Islands.  Obama's appeasement of the Argentinians has, as appeasement usually does, produced no useful benefit for the U.S.  This week the militantly left-wing government in Buenos Aires nationalized the biggest oil firm in the country, Hugo Chavez-style.  The firm was Spanish-owned.  This resulted in major international condemnation.  But, apparently believing there was no downside, the government has now nationalized a major gas company and declared it a public utility.  Argentina is drifting further and further toward the Cuba/Venezuela model.

YOUTH FOR ROMNEY? – Obama owned the youth vote in 2008, getting 68% of the 18-24-year-olds, to John McCain's 30%.  But a new poll shows a very different picture for this year, with Obama up only 7% over a "generic" Republican candidate.  It also shows that 45% of these young voters are independents, 13% greater than the general population.  Obama cannot afford to do poorly among the young, but if the numbers in this poll hold up, he will face a major political meltdown.

April 19, 2012        Permalink

VEEPSTAKES – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  A new poll gives an entertaining, if only that, view of who Republicans favor for the vice presidential slot on their fall ticket.  From The Politico:

Republicans are increasingly falling in behind Mitt Romney’s White House run, but they haven’t got a clue who he should add to the ticket, a CNN/ORC International survey says.

Condoleezza Rice tops the vice presidential wish list among Republicans and right-leaning independents, according to the poll Wednesday. Twenty-six percent of those polled backed the former national security adviser and secretary of state under George W. Bush as Romney’s No. 2. (Rice has repeatedly said she’s not interested in the job.)

Romney’s former nomination rival, Rick Santorum, garnered 21 percent for the VP spot, while Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie tied for third with 14 percent.

Sen. Rob Portman, whose name has been topping the VP list among some political insiders, registered less than one-half of 1 percent in the poll – mainly because he’s a mystery.

Sixty-seven percent — the highest in the poll — had simply “never heard of” Portman, an Ohio Republican.

And...

Tea party supporters found Rubio, at 22 percent, their favorite as Romney’s running mate, while Christie, at 18 percent, came in second. Rice tied with Santorum for third.

Among Republicans who say they aren’t avid tea party backers, however, 36 percent picked Rice as their top choice. Rubio trailed in the single digits in part because 55 percent of those outside of tea party circles said they’d never heard of him.

COMMENT:  As I said, it's an entertaining view, but meaningless.  In most primary campaigns most voters have never heard of a number of potential vice-presidential candidates.  That changes, of course, as soon as one of them is named by the presidential choice.  The buildup begins.

So these early polls often test fame rather than quality.  People want who they know.  The choice of Rice is a good demonstration of that.  Putting her on the ticket would link Romney to Bush 43, and that is something he doesn't want.  And it probably wouldn't do a thing to increase Romney's meager support among African Americans.  They will go for Obama.

I have a hunch it will be Portman, a very solid guy who may help with Ohio, but it's only a hunch. 

April 19, 2012       Permalink

HYPOCRISY IN THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  As readers know, we love to roast the mainstream media here, and there's plenty of raw meat for a delicious roast.

The leftward march of the media during the past four or five decades has been obvious, except to the media, which always denies what others plainly see.  The media was instrumental in electing Barack Obama in 2008, partly by refusing to examine his background or hold him to the same standard required of other candidates.

The latest offender is the Los Angeles Times, which has made some effort to improve in recent years, but still is nostalgic for the old-time left-wing religion.  It was the Times that published, a few days back, those pictures of American soldiers with dead Afghans.  Even the White House was disturbed, in part because the photos were two years old and not exactly news.  Michael Rubin, in Contentions, looks at the paper's hypocritical explanation for the inflammatory publication:

In explaining their decision to publish photos of American troops posing with the bodies of alleged Taliban terrorists, despite the fact that the photos are two years old and guaranteed to inflame violence, the editors of the Los Angeles Times explained, “At the end of the day, our job is to publish information that our readers need to make informed decisions.”

Perhaps the editors would then like to explain why they continue to sit on a videotape of Barack Obama reportedly toasting former PLO Beirut spokesman and University of Chicago buddy Rashid Khalidi? Isn’t that necessary for readers to make informed decisions? I’m not sure whether the editors could provide a more glaring example of their own hypocrisy.

COMMENT:  That's a bulls-eye.  There have been many requests for the L.A. Times to release the tape, but the paper continues to refuse.  The media is very big on "the people's right to know," except when the people knowing something would hurt the "correct" political stance on some issue.

Thus, even Tom Brokaw, at the time of the 2008 election, lamented that Americans were electing a president about whom they knew so little.  We don't know much more these four years later.  We still have no satisfactory explanation of the president's background; his association with radicals; the fact that no one at Columbia University, his undergraduate school, seems to remember him; the financing of his education, which one respected black leader said was provided by a Saudi prince; the fact that his two published books have different writing styles; possible travel to Pakistan in the 1980s; some strangeness about his Social Security numbers; and the fact that he, a man who had never written an article on Constitutional law, or argued a Con law case, was given a job as a Constitutional law teacher at the University of Chicago Law School. 

And we're not going to know much about these elements because the press, once again, isn't asking too many questions. 

But publish something that may inflame a foreign population and place Americans at risk?  Hey, no problem.

April 19, 2012       Permalink

UNDER THE BUS – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  Barack Obama's willingness to throw old friends, allies, and even family members under the bus, especially during election campaigns, is well known.  Indeed, it's been reported that a bigger bus, with room for more casualties toward the rear axle, has been ordered.

But the tendency is serious, and often the throwees have been America's best foreign friends, like Britain, Canada and Israel.  Nile Gardiner, in London's Telegraph, reflects on the latest episode, this one involving the Brits:

As I noted in a piece earlier this week, Barack Obama has no interest in standing with Britain over the Falklands, declaring in a press conference in Colombia at the Summit of the Americas:

And in terms of the Maldives [sic] or the Falklands, whatever your preferred term, our position on this is that we are going to remain neutral. We have good relations with both Argentina and Great Britain, and we are looking forward to them being able to continue to dialogue on this issue. But this is not something that we typically intervene in.

Please note that Obama even gets the name of the islands wrong.  The Spanish name is Malvinas. 

The Obama presidency has made it clear that it views Britain and Argentina as equal allies. This, despite the fact that Great Britain is a world power that has fought alongside the Americans in almost every major US-involved war over the past 70 years (with the notable exception of Vietnam). In contrast, Argentina is an insignificant international actor, currently led by a kleptocrat anti-Western government, which has barely lifted a finger to help the Americans in the past.

Barack Obama's latest knife in the back for Britain – and there have been many - should be a wake-up call for David Cameron, whose recent trip to Washington was an undignified exercise in hero-worship toward a Left-wing president who doesn't even like the British. The prime minister should understand that Barack Obama is no friend of Britain and never will be. And nor is his Secretary of State, who has actively backed Argentina's calls for UN-brokered negotiations between London and Buenos Aires over the sovereignty of the islands.

COMMENT:  We get the sense that this is a growing feeling internationally – that Obama has no loyalty to America's closest friends, is ignorant of history, and contemptuous of the alliances that have aided our foreign policy.   Not a way to make and keep friends.

Obama snubbed Canada in rejecting the Keystone Pipeline, essentially sending pro-American Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper off to China to find another market for Canadian oil.

One can only think of what's in store for Israel, and even for America's Arab allies, like Jordan, in a second Obama administration.  The Arabs look at what Obama did to ally Hosni Mubarak of Egypt...who not only was shoved under the bus, but under the wheels of the bus.  Compare please to Obama's indifference to pro-democracy demonstrators in Iran in 2009, and his curious lack of passion about the horror in Syria, which has claimed more than 9,000 lives so far.

Add to this the weakness that Obama radiates as president and you have what we plainly see, a foreign policy in disarray. 

Can we afford a second term?

April 19, 2012        Permalink

BULLETIN – WORRYING NEW JOBLESS FIGURES – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  Each Thursday morning the Labor Department releases figures on the number of new claims for unemployment benefits for the week before.  These are the most frequently released economic numbers we have.

Figures released just minutes ago tell a story of a stalling recovery.  From Bloomberg:

More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, a sign the improvement in labor-market conditions may be stalling.

Jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from a revised 388,000 the prior period that was higher than initially estimated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a drop to 370,000. Revisions to previous data have been larger than normal and the government is trying to determine the cause, a Labor Department spokesman said as the figures were released to the press.

COMMENT:  That's a lot of lingo to say that the jobs market did not perform up to expectations last week, nor did it the week before, or the week before that.  After a period of progress, the progress suddenly stopped several weeks ago.

The magic number for unemployment claims is 400,000.  If the figure is over 400,000, the economy is in trouble.  It was over that number for many months, then slipped back, and some observers thought the jobs picture was improving.  Now, clearly, over the most recent weeks, the number has been creeping back toward 400,000.  If it reaches that number again, a psychological watershed will have been crossed.

Nor is job creation going well.  We need to create 150,000 new jobs every month just to keep pace with population growth.  Last month's figure was below even that. 

Obama doesn't want to take these trends into November.  But he apparently will have no choice.

April 19,  2012     Permalink