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APRIL 21,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:15 P.M. ET:

CALIFORNIA DREAMIN' – Ah, there was a time when California was a red state.  Not anymore.  Latest registration figures from our largest state show 43.5% Dem registration to 30.3% Republican.  California is now a safe Democratic state, with little prospect of changing anytime soon.  This was the state that produced Ronald Reagan. 

HATCH – Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, who is in his sixth six-year term, will have to win a primary in his state to receive the nomination for a seventh.   He failed to hit the required 60%-mark at a state convention, which was dominated by those who believe Hatch to be insufficiently conservative.  He is, though, considered the heavy favorite to win the June 26th primary, in part because he has so much seniority and clout in the Senate.

DEGRADING – President Obama will make an appearance April 24th on the late-night Jimmy Fallon Show on NBC, a network whose news division increasingly appears to be an adjunct to the Obama White House.  At the start of his term, Obama appeared on the Tonight Show, with Jay Leno, also on NBC.  It's pretty clear that the purpose of appearing on the Fallon show is to go after the youth vote, which is less enthusiastic about Obama this year.  Look, this isn't the biggest story of the year, but I think Obama demeans the presidency by appearing on talk shows.  I can't imagine any past president doing it.  It symbolizes the lack of style of this administration.

April 21, 2012       Permalink 

FROM THE WONDERFUL GUYS WHO GAVE YOU THE KOREAN WAR – AT 10:36 A.M. ET:  We noted in our first post this morning that the American negotiators dealing with Iran and its nuclear program are headed by Wendy Sherman, who, during the Clinton years, was in charge of our negotiations with North Korea.  Not a good reference.

Where did those negotiations with North Korea go?  Right into the dumper.  North Korea, despite all agreements, goes its own way, and that way is chilling.  Consider a report just out from AFP:

SEOUL — North Korea has apparently completed preparations for a third nuclear test, possibly within two weeks, after firing a long-range rocket this month, according to a newspaper report.

South Korea's Chosun Ilbo said the information came from a government source. It relates to preparations for a test in the northeastern town of Punggye-ri, where the North carried out two previous nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009.

A defence ministry spokesman declined to comment on the report.

A South Korean government official told AFP on April 8 on condition of anonymity that satellite images showed a new underground tunnel built at the nuclear test site besides two others where the previous tests were conducted.

"Heaps of earth and sand which had been piled up outside the new tunnel have disappeared," a government source was quoted as saying by Chosun.

"It is highly likely that the North has installed a nuclear device inside the tunnel and sealed it (with the piles of earth and sand)," the source said.

Since last year, US and South Korean intelligence authorities have been monitoring the excavation by measuring the amount of soil and rocks dumped from the tunnel, it said.

But it has not yet been confirmed whether the North has installed cables for detonation, the source said.

"It is technically feasible for the North to carry out a nuclear test within two weeks," the source added.

COMMENT:  And what will be our response if the north does carry out a new nuclear test?  Well, I guess it will be some sanctions, which the north will then ignore.

North Korea has exported its technology to other rogue states, like Syria and Iran.  It has paid virtually no price, at least no price that its leaders care about.  And there seem to be plenty of people in the West, including much of the Western left, that just can't be bothered about any of this.

April 21, 2012       Permalink

MITT ON THE PIPELINE – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  Mitt Romney does know a good issue when he sees it.  He's piling on Obama, properly, because of Obama's rejection of the Keystone pipeline.  From The Hill:

Mitt Romney drew a line in the oil sands on Friday, focusing on the controversial Keystone pipeline project opposed by the White House and saying, “I will build that pipeline if I have to myself.”

Romney blasted Obama on a range of policies during a speech to the Republican National Committee’s State Chairmen’s National Meeting in Arizona, but singled out the controversial project that would route Canadian oil sands south to Gulf Coast refineries.

The White House earlier this year rejected making a decision on the pipeline until the project had been reviewed, a process expected to take at least until after the November elections. But House Republicans this week, when pushing through legislation to extend needed federal transportation program funding, included a mandate to approve the pipeline.

Romney pledged that he would expand drilling for gas and oil as president and would buy oil from Canada.

COMMENT:  Well done.  But Mitt must be on guard.  As we wrote at Urgent Agenda, Obama might well find some magic reason to reverse himself and approve the pipeline before the election, taking credit for it.  Mitt must then insist that it was his, Romney's, pressure that forced the decision and say that this is the kind of action America will get when he is president.

So far I'm impressed by the way Romney's daily operation has been run.  He has a sharp staff that watches everything that happens, and responds immediately.  Keep it up.

April 21, 2012       Permalink

SOME TRUTH TELLING – AT 10:05 A.M. ET:  In a brilliant piece in the Weekly Standard, Mideast authority Elliott Abrams lays down some truths, based not on his opinions, but on easily accessible facts.

First, Abrams quotes a discerning cable sent by political counselor Victor Tomseth at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran on August 13, 1979, a few months before the embassy was seized in what became known as the Iranian hostage crisis.  The cable reads like so many of those sent by some American diplomats in Berlin in the early 1930s, warning of what was to come.  Their warnings were ignored.  Are we ignoring warnings about Iran today?

From the cable:

“Perhaps the single dominant aspect of the Persian psyche is an overriding egoism … that leaves little room for understanding points of view other than one’s own.” There is also a “pervasive unease about the nature of the world in which … nothing is permanent and … hostile forces abound.” Persians therefore see themselves as “obviously justified in using almost any means available to exploit such opportunities” to protect themselves. Tomseth then adds that Persians have a poor understanding of causality, “an aversion to accepting responsibility for one’s actions,” and resist “the idea that Iranian behavior has consequences” on American policy.

And...

From these analyses, explained at greater length, the cable draws lessons. First, “one should never assume that his side of the issue will be recognized, let alone that it will be conceded to have merits. … A negotiator must force recognition of his position upon his Persian opposite number.” Second, the Iranian negotiator will not seek cooperation or a long-term relationship of trust; instead, he “will assume that his opposite number is his adversary” and will “seek to maximize the benefits to himself that are immediately available.” Third, “linkages will be neither readily comprehended nor accepted.” Fourth, and especially relevant now, “one should insist on performance as the sine qua non at each stage of the negotiations. Statements of intention count for almost nothing.” Fifth, “cultivation of good will for good will’s sake is a waste of effort.” And finally, “one should be prepared for the threat of breakdown in negotiations at any given moment and not be cowed by this possibility.”

Abrams then goes on to reveal stunning information about the European Union's Catherine Ashton, who essentially is leading the current nuclear talks with Iran:

Prior to 2008, Ashton’s only involvement in world affairs was six years (1977-1983) as a high official of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). CND is a leftist organization that, while Ashton was one of its leaders and the Soviet Union was an expansionist power, called for unilateral nuclear disarmament by the United Kingdom and the prevention of any deployment of nuclear weapons there. CND has a long history of denouncing U.S. policy just about everywhere—from the Vietnam War to today’s Middle East.

And, on the American delegate, Wendy Sherman:

Sherman, who leads the U.S. delegation, is now under secretary of state for political affairs. In the Clinton administration, Sherman was counselor to Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and “policy coordinator” on North Korea. At the end of her tenure, she wrote in the New York Times that North Korea is “a country of immense pride.” She added that after the Albright trip to Pyongyang in October 2000, where Albright happily exchanged friendly toasts with her hosts, “North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Il, appears ready to make landmark commitments about the missile program. To ensure the survival of his regime, he has to improve the country's disastrous economy by reducing the burden of a vast missile program and opening the doors to trade.”

There is no record of Sherman acknowledging that her judgment on North Korea was wrong or suggesting that from the experience of failed Clinton and Bush policies toward North Korea she has taken any lessons at all. While talks continued for years, North Korea continued the development of nuclear weapons and of missiles—a somber thought in the context of the Iran negotiations.

COMMENT:  Be alarmed.  Be very alarmed.  There may well be a deal with Iran, a deal shaped by the same mentality that made agreements with North Korea.  I don't think Obama would have any problem with that, although I hope I'm wrong.

Look for signs of stalling...by Obama, saying that talks are going well and need more time.  Then look for an agreement to be announced after the election, when Obama has nothing to lose.  That is speculation, I emphasize, and again I say that I hope I'm wrong.

But why would anyone put Wendy Sherman in charge of the American negotiators anyway?

April 21,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 20,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:04 P.M. ET:

SIGN OF THE TIMES – The Congressional Budget Office said today that 45 million Americans received food stamps in 2011, a 70% increase since 2007.  The Office said that the program would continue growing until 2014, when the economy, at least according to today's statement, is expected to improve.

THE MARCH OF SCIENCE – Writing in Forbes, climage-change militant Steve Zwick argued that those who deny global warning should be tracked, hunted, and their homes burned to the ground.  This comes a month after an Oregon professor said that climage-change skeptics should be regarded as racists, and treated for mental illness.  In 2006 an environmental magazine said that deniers should face war-crimes tribunals.  Thus the march of "science" continues.  Don't you dare ask questions.

WARNING – MADNESS AHEAD – An upcoming UN conference, supported by the Obama administration, will propose the transfer of billions of dollars from "wealthy" countries to poor ones to build a "green infrastructure," "climate adaptation," and other "green economy" measures.  It looks like another get-rich-quick scheme for third-world dictators, climate hustlers and the UN itself.  I don't think it will have much chance of getting through the U.S. Congress, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Obamans support at least part of the gimmick, if they're around after the election.

CAUGHT – Massachusetts high moralizer and Dem Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, has been caught in high hypocrisy by the fightin' campaign of Republican Senator Scott Brown.  Seems that Massachusetts has a basic tax rate, but you can pay a set higher rate if you wish to.  Warren had rapped Brown for voting against the "Buffett rule," which would increase taxes for millionaires.  It now turns out that Warren, who is loaded, pays only the basic tax rate in her own state.  “The problem with running a campaign based on self-righteousness and moral superiority is that you had better live up to the same standard you would impose on everyone else,” Brown's campaign manager said. “Millionaire Warren lectures others about their obligation and responsibility to pay higher taxes, but she refuses to pay the optional higher rate available in Massachusetts.”  Still, Warren is expected to give Brown a very tough fight in blue Massachusetts, and has a reasonable chance of winning.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

ZIMMERMAN BAILED – AT 11:27 A.M. ET:   From Fox:

A Florida judge has set bail for at $150,000 for George Zimmerman, who is charged with second degree murder in the shooting death of Trayvon Martin.

The bail was announced at a hearing Friday, shortly after Zimmerman took the witness stand, telling the parents of Martin, "I am sorry for the loss of your son," but standing by his claim that he killed the teen in self-defense.

COMMENT:  There are no signs of disturbances in the community in response to the bail ruling, but we'll wait.

April 20, 2012        Permalink

JEB ENDORSES MARCO FOR V.P. – AT 10:16 A.M. ET:   Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is pushing Senator Marco Rubio for vice president, even though Rubio has repeatedly said he doesn't want to be on the ticket:

“I think Mitt needs to stay above the fray a bit, and to offer a hopeful message that can lift people’s spirits up because after the end of this four or five months of really negative campaigning,” Bush added. “ I think people are going to be motivated by a more positive message.”

Bush called Rubio “probably the best” candidate for vice president on a list that likely includes himself — the son of former President George H.W. Bush, and the brother of former President George W. Bush.

“Well I can’t speak for Gov. Romney, and I can’t speak for Sen. Rubio, but if I was on both sides of that conversation I would ask — and I would hope that Marco would accept,” Bush said. “There’s a lot of things in between that may not make that happen, but I am a great admirer of Mitt Romney’s and I’m a huge fan of Marco Rubio’s, and I think the combination would be extraordinary.”

So do I. 

There are two new Fox News polls out that show what a tough fight this will be.  Ohio and Florida are two swing states that the Republicans are determined to carry this year.  I can't see Romney winning without at least one of them.  I can't see Obama winning if he loses both.

Yet, both states are tipping toward Obama.  In Ohio Obama leads 45-39%, a reverse from the 44-38% lead that Romney enjoyed in February.  In Florida Obama leads  45-43%.  Both polls were taken among registered voters.  Polls among likely voters generally show stronger numbers for the Republican candidate. 

The fact that both polls show Obama at a high of 45% is actually good news for Romney.  If an incumbent president can't hit 50%, he's usually considered by political experts to be in some trouble.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

THERE GOES FRANCE – AT 9:27 A.M. ET:   French President Nicolas Sarkozy has been the most pro-American leader France has had in many years.  We've been lucky, and Obama, whether he realizes it or not, has been lucky. 

But it looks like our luck is about to end.  Americans haven't followed the French election campaign very closely, and yet it will impact us and our foreign policy.  It appears that Sarkozy will soon be out of power:

(Reuters) - Voters look set to turn their backs on conservative Nicolas Sarkozy in Sunday's first round of an election that could give France its first left-wing president in 17 years just as fears resurface over Europe's sovereign debt crisis.

A sickly economy and a deep dislike of Sarkozy's flashy style have dominated the campaign, but the outside world's doubts about France's commitment to balance its public finances are also at stake as feeble growth threatens deficit-cutting targets in Europe's No. 2 economy.

The centre-right president, an impulsive showman, and his bland Socialist challenger, Francois Hollande, are neck-and-neck in opinion polls for the first round on about 27-28 percent. But Hollande has a wide lead in voting intentions for a May 6 runoff between the top two candidates.

And...

Hollande, 57, promises to tread a fiscally responsible path, but his focus on tax rises over spending cuts and his call to renegotiate a European budget discipline pact has some analysts concerned that he would create a new euro zone stress point.

COMMENT:  From what I've read, Hollande has no particular desire to go back to the confrontational attitude toward America of some past French governments.  But he is a socialist, and his economic policies can profoundly affect Europe, and, by extension, us. 

Stand by for the vote.  We will miss Sarkozy, even if the French won't.

April 20, 2012       Permalink

OBAMA FACING DEM REVOLT? – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:   Byron York, in the Washington Examiner, says yes, that some Democrats in Congress are now in open revolt against President Obama's stalling of the Keystone Pipeline from Canada. 

While much of the political world obsesses over Twitter fights and Seamus the dog, Barack Obama has set himself up for a high-profile defeat on one of the most important issues of the campaign.

The president has put his feet in cement in opposition to the Keystone oil pipeline. But on Capitol Hill, more and more Democrats are joining Republicans to force approval of the pipeline, whether Obama wants it or not.

The latest action happened Wednesday, when the House passed a measure to move the pipeline forward. Before the vote, Obama issued a veto threat. The House approved the pipeline anyway -- by a veto-proof majority, 293 to 127. Sixty-nine Democrats abandoned the president to vote with Republicans. That's a lot of defections.

When the House voted on the pipeline in July of last year, 47 Democrats broke with the president. Now that it's an election year and the number is up to 69, look for Republicans to hold more pipeline votes before November. GOP leaders expect even more Democrats to join them.

Then there is the Senate. Democrats are using the filibuster to stop the pipeline, which means 60 votes are required to pass it. (Some Democrats who bitterly opposed the filibuster when Republicans used it against Obama initiatives are notably silent these days.) In a vote last month, 11 Senate Democrats stood up against Obama to vote in favor of the pipeline. Add those 11 to the Republicans' 47 votes, and the pro-pipeline forces are just a couple of votes away from breaking Harry Reid's filibuster.

"We're right around the corner from actually passing it," says a well-informed Senate source. "Two-hundred-ninety-three votes in the House is a gigantic number. People want this thing."

COMMENT:  That's incredible.  But wait.  We have Chicago politicians running the country, and they can count.  Don't be shocked if Obama suddenly gets a pre-election "report" from some mysterious office of government saying the pipeline no longer poses an environmental threat.  And, poof, Obama signs an approval statement.  He then goes to the people and says, "I approved the pipeline.  I love the pipeline.  I want to marry the pipeline.  I want to start a family with the pipeline.  But I did it right."

Coming to a TV screen near you.

April 20, 2012        Permalink 

THE TRAYVON MARTIN CASE – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  This will be a big day in the Martin case, which has now become a national event, and, to a degree, a national farce of the O.J. Simpson type.

A judge will decide today whether to grant bail to the shooter, George Zimmerman.  According to most of the analyses I've read, Zimmerman is an excellent candidate for bail.  He has no criminal record and he has ties to his community.  He turned himself in, negating the notion that he'd be a flight risk. 

Indeed, it seems the only reason a judge could deny jail in this explosive case is for political reasons – to once again placate those calling for Zimmerman's scalp.  This case is way overcharged.   Zimmerman is charged with second-degree murder, and I've not seen one credible legal authority, commenting on the case, who believes that charge can be sustained.  Indeed, Alan Dershowitz of Harvard calls it unethical.

Reports out of Florida say that law enforcement is preparing for the possibility that Zimmerman will be released on bail, and that violence could follow.  Barriers are already up at the courthouse.  How disgraceful this has become.

At the same time, in a major development, ABC News has obtained a photo of George Zimmerman taken only minutes after he did shoot and kill Trayvon Martin.  The story and photo are here.  (The photo is linked within the story.)  From the story:

A new photograph obtained exclusively by ABC News showing the bloodied back of George Zimmerman's head, which was apparently taken three minutes after he shot and killed Trayvon Martin, gives possible credence to his claim that Martin had bashed his head against the concrete as Zimmerman fought for his life.

The revelation comes as his attorney and prosecutors prepare for Zimmerman's bail hearing today, which could result in his being released from a Florida jail. Zimmerman, 28, is being held on charges of second-degree murder for the Feb. 26 shooting of Martin, 17, which could carry a life sentence if he is convicted.

The exclusive image shows blood trickling down the back of Zimmerman's head from two cuts. It also shows a possible contusion forming on the crown of his head. The original police report that night notes that the back of Zimmerman's head was wet, and that he was bleeding from the nose and head.

COMMENT:  If the photo can be authenticated, it's hard to believe any jury will convict this man of second-degree murder.  Indeed, it's hard to believe a judge would even permit the charge to be continued.  But I am not a lawyer, or an expert in the Florida legal process.  We have readers with better credentials.  Please write us your views.

April 20,  2012      Permalink