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APRIL 23,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:35 P.M. ET:

OH SO SHY – More on Marco Rubio.  He's now announced that he will deliver what is billed as a major foreign-policy speech this Wednesday.  The speech will focus on American global leadership.  This man is not interested in being on the Republican ticket.  We insist on that.  Start laughing.  And get out your Romney/Rubio buttons.

UH, A LITTLE MISTAKE – One of the legendary scaremongers of the global-warming religion, one James Lovelock, is writing a new book, at age 92, admitting that he was an alarmist, and that all of his predictions were wrong.  He says, “The problem is we don’t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago. That led to some alarmist books – mine included – because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn’t happened."  He points to Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" as another example of alarmism.

"WAR ON WOMEN" CHARGE AGAINST GOP BACKFIRES – The Dems tried to portray Republicans as anti-woman, but most women aren't buying it.  A poll by The Hill reports that 46% of women voters feels Romney better understands their concerns, whereas 41% feel Obama is better.  The poll revealed, not a gender gap, but a marriage gap.  Obama does much better among single women, and Romney much better among married women.

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT AT THE UN – The UN has decided to investigate the condition of native Americans.  Of course, we have great confidence in the UN and know that it will issue a fair and balanced report.  (Choke.)  Oh, by the way, the guy leading the "research" is a University of Arizona professor of "human rights" who has expressed deep support for native Americans before.  That's fine with me.  We should all support native Americans.  But we know what UN reports are like. 

April 23, 2012       Permalink

SNIPPET OF THE DAY – AT 3:30 P.M. ET:

From The Politico:   John Edwards’s favorability rating stands at a dismal 3 percent, according to a new poll released as the criminal trial of the former presidential candidate is set to begin on Monday.

Wouldn't you love to have a conversation with some of those three percent? 

DEMOCRATS MANNING THE LIFEBOATS – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  We've reported on the growing list of congressional Dems who are abandoning Obama on the Keystone pipeline issue. 

Now there's another list being written – Dems defecting on Obamacare.  What will this cost the president?  From Investor's Business Daily:

Perhaps Democrats know something the rest of us don't about Barack Obama's political fortunes. What else explains the increasing numbers who are openly defying the president on two key election issues?

The notoriously thin-skinned Obama could not have been happy with the news last week that, as the Hill newspaper put it, "an increasing number of Democrats are taking potshots at President Obama's health care law."

North Carolina's Brad Miller, who voted for the law, now laments that "we would all have been better off" if Congress had dealt with more pressing issues "and then came back to health care."

Barney Frank complained that the Democrats "paid a terrible price for health care." And Virginia's outgoing Sen. Jim Webb said the law would be Obama's "biggest downside" in the election and had cost him "a lot of credibility as a leader."

Meanwhile, stalwart Massachusetts liberal Elizabeth Warren is now calling to repeal a piece of ObamaCare — the 2.3% tax on medical devices — because, she says, it "disproportionately impacts the small companies with the narrowest financial margins."

There are many of those companies in Massachusetts.

Warren, by the way, is running for the Senate seat occupied by Republican Scott Brown, whose victory in 2010 was a result of the public's intense opposition to ObamaCare.

Former Alabama Rep. Artur Davis went furthest. "I think the Affordable Care Act is the single least popular piece of major domestic legislation in the last 70 years," he said. "It was not popular when it passed; it's less popular now." Ouch.

COMMENT:  Republicans can make hay on Obamacare, but only if they come up with a credible alternative that has popular support.  They cannot simply be against something, especially a health-care plan.

Obamacare, Keystone, a stalled economy – there's a laundry list of policies on which Obama is vulnerable.  But you may be sure that his team is working hard on ways to use these issues against Romney.  And the attacks on Romney will be relentless.  My sense is that he's ready.  He's organized an excellent campaign.  This can be won.

April 23, 2012       Permalink

THE MARCO WATCH – AT 9:31 A.M. ET:  We've run a number of items about Marco Rubio because he seems awfully active for a guy who says he's not interested in being vice president.  Clearly, he's on Romney's very short list.  The two, as we reported, will soon campaign together.

Now Rubio is making a daring move.  He's proposing a conservative alternative to the Democratic Dream Act, designed to address the problem of illegal immigration.  He knows it's a risk because there is a militant faction within the GOP that will accept nothing less than deportation of illegals.  But it's absurd to think this country will deport 12 million people, and Rubio knows it.  His proposal is getting scrutiny.  If it gains traction, and pacifies the right, it can put him on the ticket as a great asset on a difficult issue.  From The Politico:

Marco Rubio's version of the DREAM Act has spawned a lot of chatter in Spanish-language media, which is playing up the possibility that some children of illegal immigrants could eventually become citizens under his emerging proposal.

But when asked at a briefing Thursday with English-language reporters if his plan would create a pathway to citizenship, Rubio insisted it wouldn't.

"I think the key difference is it doesn't create a special pathway for citizenship and thereby leads to illegal chain migration," he said of the distinctions between his plan and the Democratic DREAM Act. "What it does it only puts them in the same position as any other holder of a non-immigrant visa, which is the opportunity to avail themselves of the existing legal immigration system whatever that system is at that time when they access it."

Democratic leadership aides said Friday that Rubio seemed to be playing up the citizenship piece with Spanish-language press and downplaying it with English-language media.

But Rubio's office on Friday strongly denied that was the case.

Alex Conant, a Rubio spokesman, said Friday that "there is nothing in his proposal that would prevent these kids from eventually becoming citizens. But unlike the current DREAM Act, it does not create special pathway to citizenship. If these kids want to become citizens, they would have to go through the same process as anyone else and wait in line."

COMMENT:  I think Rubio is on to something here.  His plan looks fair, and, very important, practical.   I also think Rubio would add excitement to the ticket.  And proposing an immigration plan that can attract widespread backing adds substance.  Take the emotional issue of illegal immigration away from Democrats, and the GOP gains considerably.

April 23, 2012       Permalink

ZIMMERMAN FREED – AT 9:06 A.M. ET:  George Zimmerman, the shooter in the Trayvon Martin case, has now been released on $150,000 bail.  There were no violent incidents accompanying his release.

There are also reports from Florida that things have calmed down considerably, now that the legal system has pursued the case and the race hustlers have gone home to hustle someone else.

There may also be a recognition by cooler heads in the African-American community that this case is very complex, and that the charge that the killing of Trayvon Martin was racially motivated doesn't hold up under scrutiny.  Indeed, the charge of second-degree murder against Zimmerman appears to most legal observers to be way over the top. 

What is feared most now is another O.J. Simpson farce, where a jury might be intimidated to vote one way or the other, depending on community pressure.   We'll follow the story closely, in part because any major story involving race can affect the political process.

April 23, 2012        Permalink

SYRIA ALERT – AT 8:40 A.M. ET:  The UN-brokered "ceasefire" in Syria has failed to cease anything, which is fairly typical for UN-brokered agreements.  The violence continues, with high daily death tolls.  Now we're seeing what many observers feared the most, an influx of jihadists who are trying to infiltrate and take over the opposition.  If they succeed, we'll have two bad forces against each other in that critical country.  From the Washington Post:

BEIRUT — As Syria’s revolution drags into its second year amid few signs that a U.N.-mandated cease-fire plan will end the violence, evidence is mounting that Islamist extremists are seeking to commandeer what began as a non-ideological uprising aimed at securing greater political freedom.

Activists and rebel soldiers based inside Syria say a small but growing number of Islamist radicals affiliated with global jihadi movements have been arriving in opposition strongholds in recent weeks and attempting to rally support among disaffected residents.

Western diplomats say they have tracked a steady trickle of jihadists flowing into Syria from Iraq, and Jordan’s government last week detained at least four alleged Jordanian militants accused of trying to sneak into Syria to join the revolutionaries.

And, an interesting take on why the West might want to intervene:

...if the United Nations’ peace plan fails to end the government’s bloody crackdown and promises of Western and Arab help for the rebel Free Syrian Army do not materialize, activists and analysts say, there is a real risk that frustrated members of the opposition will be driven toward extremism, adding a dangerous dimension to a revolt that is threatening to destabilize a wide arc of territory across the Middle East.

“The world doing nothing opens the door for jihadis,” said Lt. Abdullah al-Awdi, a Free Syrian Army commander who defected from the regular army in the summer and was interviewed during a visit he made to Turkey. He says that he has rebuffed several offers of help from militant groups in the form of arms and money and that he fears the extremists’ influence will grow.

COMMENT:  Some members of the U.S. Senate, like John McCain, Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham – a heroic trio on foreign policy – have met with elements of the Syrian opposition and are convinced that they are sincere and non-radical.  McCain has argued for military intervention, but has gotten indifference from the administration.

This is coming to a head.  If Assad stays in power in Syria, Iran, Syria's ally, will have won a great victory.  But if the opposition is indeed radicalized because of the West's failure to help it, we lose that way, too. 

Decisions are difficult because the Mideast is a mess, there is deception everywhere, and the United States is weakened under Obama.  But some kind of intervention is going to be necessary soon to prevent an absolute disaster in which we lose no matter who wins.

April 23,  2012     Permalink

APRIL 22,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:53 P.M. ET:

FRENCH RESULTS – Socialist Francois Hollande has edged out incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round of French voting.  There will be a runoff on May 6th, with Hollande heavily favored to win.  This is a major setback for the United States, as Sarkozy has been the best friend America has had in the French president's office in decades.  Also, the Sarkozy alliance with generally conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany has helped to stabilize Europe at a time of financial crisis.  A socialist government in France will do little to assure the international financial community of France's seriousness in ending Europe's money woes.

PROBE TO SPREAD? – Senators Charles Grassley of Iowa and Joe Lieberman of Connecticut have united to demand a wider investigation of the Secret Service scandal, to include a probe of White House personnel assigned to presidential travel.  It is stressed that no evidence has come to light involving regular members of the White House staff, but Grassley and Lieberman say they want to be sure the White House itself was not compromised.  My gut feeling is that these two senators know something, but don't want to go public in advance of any investigation.  Could get juicy.

NO, WE'RE NOT DUMB – A new Pew survey confirms what other studies have found, that Republican partisans are generally better informed and more knowledgeable about politics and political history than are Democrats.  On 8 of 13 questions, those who lean Republican outscored Democrats.  This is not surprising to many of us who've known Dems and Republicans over the years, but it will likely be a shock to mainstream media and the journalism schools that feed the major news organizations.  There will be heavy fretting.

April 22, 2012       Permalink

THE CONGRESSIONAL RACE – AT 11:36 A.M. ET:  With so much attention focused on the presidential race, we tend to put aside the equally critical congressional races.  If Obama is re-elected, perish the thought, the only thing standing between us and ruination would be a Republican Congress.

Scott Rasmussen tells us where things now stand:

Republicans, as they have for nearly three years now, continue to lead Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot, this time for the week ending Sunday, April 15.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 36% would choose the Democrat instead. This is the largest gap between the two parties since the beginning of 2011. It also doubles the gap found a week ago when the Republican led by five points, 45% to 40%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from April 9-15, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence.

COMMENT:  The numbers will fluctuate, as Rasmussen indicates, especially at this stage of the campaign, before voters are focused on individual candidates.  But if Republicans can hold the House and take the Senate, that would be a major step forward in bringing Washington under some control, even if Obama is back.  If Romney is elected, with a Republican Congress, we can get things done.

We'll follow the congressional races as carefully as we follow the presidential contest.

April 22, 2012       Permalink

MARCO MOVING? – AT 11:06 A.M. ET:  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, clearly one of the most attractive political figures on the scene today, has repeatedly said he's not interested in the vice presidency. 

Ah, but what a little political buzz about a guy can do.  Rubio appears to have opened the door just a little.  And a little in politics can soon turn into a wave.  From The Hill:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) didn't fully close the door on accepting the vice presidential slot if Mitt Romney asked him.

Rubio, who has repeatedly denied any interest in the slot, said that he wanted to "respect the process" Romney has put in place to make a selection and would no longer address it.

"I'm not going to even discuss the process anymore. I'm going to be respectful of the process he's put in place," said Rubio on CNN'S "State of the Union" on Sunday morning.

Translated into basic English:  If Marco gets the call, hey, he's got to respect the process, and the candidate, and the country, and public service, and...you get the picture.  It may be Romney-Rubio.

When host Candy Crowley said Rubio must know that will trigger speculation that he's open to accepting the slot after all, Rubio disagreed but didn't push hard against her comments.

"No, I think it's fair. I think the fairness in it is he has a real process in place... the last thing he needs is those of us in the peanut gallery to be saying what we would or would not do," he said.

"What I would characterize it is I'm not going to discuss it anymore because now there's a real process in place... he has a process and we should respect that process," he said with a smile.

COMMENT:  Romney's schedule shows that he will soon be campaigning with Rubio.  I guess it's a tryout.  Paul Ryan got the tryout a few weeks ago.  And Romney was in Ohio with Senator Rob Portman, another guy on the short v.p. list.

Rubio would bring much to the ticket, including a winning manner and a background as a Cuban-American.  He is very conservative, which will give him credibility with the right even as he proposes, as he is doing, a Republican version of the Dream Act, which will deal with the issue of illegal immigration.

Some will say that Rubio isn't "ready."  But who can say that?  The Obama team?  Obama has been president for three and a half years, and he still isn't ready.

April 22, 2012       Permalink

MORE GOOD NEWS FROM THE MISUNDERSTOOD CULTURE – AT 10:42 A.M. ET:  The claim cannot be verified, but this is what happens when we lose an intelligence asset.  From Fox:

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran claimed Sunday that it had reverse-engineered an American spy drone captured by its armed forces last year and has begun building a copy.

Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, chief of the aerospace division of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, related what he said were details of the aircraft's operational history to prove his claim that Tehran's military experts had extracted data from the U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel captured in December in eastern Iran, state television reported.

Among the drone's past missions, he said, was surveillance of the compound in northwest Pakistan in which Usama Bin Laden lived and was killed.

Tehran has flaunted the capture of the Sentinel, a top-secret surveillance drone with stealth technology, as a victory for Iran and a defeat for the United States in a complicated intelligence and technological battle.

U.S. officials have acknowledged losing the drone. They have said Iran will find it hard to exploit any data and technology aboard it because of measures taken to limit the intelligence value of drones operating over hostile territory.

COMMENT:  There are some very disturbing reports, and commentaries, from knowledgeable sources, suggesting that the United States is about to strike a "grand bargain" with Iran, essentially caving in on critical "red lines," undercutting our allies, even undercutting UN resolutions, and, bottom line, "trusting" Iran.  We cannot verify that this is in store, but we have been hearing of a mood of apprehension in the more mature wing of the foreign-policy establishment.

We'll know soon...but will we know in time for the election?  Don't count on it.

April 22,  2012     Permalink