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FEBRUARY 18,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:46 P.M. ET: 

BON VOYAGE, FOR THE 485TH TIME – Just when we thought the first family was settling down for an extended stay – maybe two weeks – in the White House, we learn that Michele as taken the two girls on a skiing vacation in exclusive Aspen, Colorado, playground of the rich and infamous.  This is barely a month after returning from a holiday break in Hawaii.  And yet, there is no cry of "insensitive."  That is reserved for Republicans.

GREAT MOMENTS IN MORALITY – Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has endorsed the re-election of Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. of Chicago.  Jackson is in a primary battle with former Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson.  He's also under several of ethical clouds, including a probe by the House Ethics Committee about whether he tried to buy a Senate seat.  Nonetheless, the Democratic establishment is going all out for Jackson.  Why should a few minor ethical matters interfere with the old boys and girls club?

IRAN TO SYRIA, WITH LOVE? – The Chinese press is reporting that Syrian President Assad expects 15,000 elite Iranian troops to soon arrive in Syria to keep order in the provinces.  There have been numerous reports of Iranian assistance to the Syrian regime, its most important ally in the Arab world.  Tehran refuses to confirm the accuracy of the report.  Iran is stuck between two bad outcomes in the Syrian conflict.  On the one hand, it doesn't want to see its Syrian ally, Assad, brought down.  On the other hand, direct Iranian involvement would give the West another reason to tighten the screws on Iran, and possibly even attack.

February 18, 2012       Permalink

EXCITEMENT AHEAD, AND SALVATION? – AT 11:51 A.M. ET:  Apropos of the post just below, there is increasing, and increasingly serious, talk about a possible brokered convention in the GOP.  (The term itself, though widely used, is wrong.  The correct term should be "contested convention.")  It is still unlikely, but if Romney is badly damaged in the primaries of the next three weeks, it could become a very live possibility:

(Reuters) - Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney's struggles in Michigan are fueling speculation that Republicans might have to resort to a doomsday scenario and launch a frantic search for a 2012 savior at their nominating convention in late August.

Rare in the modern age of U.S. politics, a "brokered convention" could result in Republicans ditching their current crop of candidates and turning to someone else who they feel would have a better chance of defeating Democratic President Barack Obama in the November 6 election.

How did Republicans get to this point? Romney's failure to get conservatives fully behind him and put down yet another challenger in the party - this time it's Rick Santorum - is causing angst in the party.

Many senior Republicans do not think Santorum, a social conservative caught up in the U.S. culture wars over issues like abortion and contraception, has a chance to beat Obama if he wins the party's presidential nomination.

When he ran for re-election as a U.S. senator from Pennsylvania in 2006, Santorum lost by 18 percentage points. But, nevertheless, he is exposing Romney's weaknesses in Michigan, where Santorum leads polls ahead of the big Midwestern state's February 28 primary.

A Romney loss to Santorum in Michigan, the state where he was born and where his father was governor, would only intensify the talk about a weak Republican field and feed demands for someone else as the party's candidate to challenge Obama.

"It's hard for me to see how Romney rights the ship if he loses Michigan," said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. "There is no level of spin that can overcome that disaster."

COMMENT:  The Romney attack machine is now up to full speed, savaging Santorum in ads in Michigan.  Negative advertising works, and Romney might still pull Michigan out.  But his very tactics, the viciousness of his campaigns against fellow Republicans, are leading to revulsion and backlash within the party.

Getting to a contested convention is difficult enough.  The question then becomes:  Who?

There is no Eisenhower waiting in the wings, the father figure, above politics, who can come in and save the GOP.  There had been talk of David Petraeus, but Obama neutralized him politically by sending him to the CIA, where he's out of the news.  No victory parade for Dave.

There are the usual suspects:  Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and Jeb Bush.  Any of them would tower over Barack Obama as president.  But could any of them win?  Mitch Daniels has been a wonderful governor of Indiana, but Mr. Excitement he ain't.  He could cure any case of insomnia.  Chris Christie is aces in New Jersey, but his belligerence, great on a local level, may be problematical in a presidential race.  Marco Rubio, as readers know, is a favorite of mine, and could cut into Obama's lead among Hispanic-Americans.  But Rubio is unknown nationally, and untested.  Jeb Bush would be an outstanding president, the best of the Bushes.  But that is the problem...the name Bush.  We don't do dynasties, and there is something almost comical about Republicans going to the first contested convention in modern history and emerging with...another Bush.

And yet, on balance, I believe any of them could win against Obama.  It would be tough, but the emergence of a fresh new face at the convention, a Sarah Palin who is prepared for a national campaign, could ignite the political landscape. 

The current Republican candidates are becoming damaged goods.  Yes, they could rebuild, but there is a certain entertainment quotient in politics, and that is driven partly by media.  Who in the media wouldn't want to cover a good, hard-fought, old-time convention?

February 18, 2012       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  The fact is, he stands pretty well, much to our regret.  Obama's standing in the polls continues to improve, as the Republicans falter badly.  The Republican race for the presidential nomination is increasingly seen as something of a bad joke.  Congressional Republicans fare poorly in the polls.  From Rasmussen:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 28% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12.

That is actually not bad for this president, whose "minus" ratings have been in the low 20s. 

Overall, 50% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) at least somewhat disapprove.

And...

Most voters still think Republicans and Democrats in Congress are out of touch with their respective party bases but now believe it’s more important for the GOP to work with President Obama than to fight him. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters now feel that, looking to the future, it’s more important for the Republican Party to work with the president rather than stand for what it believes in. Forty-four percent (44%) disagree and think standing for what the party believes in is more important.

Most polls now show the president hovering at 50%, whereas he was in the low 40s not long ago.  There are three reasons for Obama's improvement:  First, there is the perception that the economy is improving.  Second, the Republicans look embarrassing.  When you realize that the hottest presidential candidate in the GOP is a former senator who lost his last race for reelection by 18 points and is ideologically rigid, with little appeal to independents, you can see the problem. And third, the bias of the media is starting to kick in again.  In the months ahead we will see the return of the 2008 coverage.  If anything, the press may be more biased, as more of the "new" generation of journalists fill the ranks.  For them, Obama is mainstream and the Republicans are extremists.   It is what they were taught in college and in journalism schools.

We now must ask if the GOP is heading for a disaster.  Well, not yet.  There are still eight and a half months to go before the election.  That is ten lifetimes in politics.

But, so far, the superb Obama political machine, deceptive as it is, is showing its strength once again.  And Republicans, as usual, are working hard to lose the election.  Indeed, the GOP nightmare is now that the party will fail to win the White House and Senate, and will turn back control of the House to the Dems.  If that happens (and I don't think all three will happen) you can imagine America four years from now.

Second Amendment?  What Second Amendment?  First Amendment?  Well, it has to be interpreted...

February 18, 2012       Permalink 

YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS UP – AT 10:27 A.M. ET:  We quote from the Newark Star-Ledger:

NEWARK — Whitney Houston's funeral has inspired several of Newark's gang leaders to call for a day of calm today to honor the Brick City-born pop queen.

The push started after Hykine Johnson — a former high-ranking member of the Sex, Money, Murder Bloods who is better known around Newark by his street handle “HAK” — published a Facebook post Wednesday night, calling for citywide peace on the day of Houston's services at the New Hope Baptist Church.

"If anyone out there is gang banging lets show Whitney Houston respect by commiting no crimes on saturday ......No shootings No robbing No car jacking basically no crazy (stuff) let us show some respect she helped alot of people in Nj lets show lov," wrote Johnson, who now works as an author and filmmaker, publishing works intended to show young people the perils of gang life in the city.

Johnson’s message quickly circulated throughout the street community, largely among city and gang leaders connected to the Bloods. While Newark is home to a wide array of street gangs, the Bloods make up the majority of the city's gang populace.

Early Friday morning, an influential member of the large Mob PIRU Bloods set promised her crew's members would fall in line with the call for peace.

"We can guarantee there won’t be any violence from our end, and we just wanted to let him know we’re supporting this," said Jada, a "Big Sis" with MOB PIRU and founder of the non-profit group Nine Women Strong. "I intend on speaking to a couple of the other brothers from the other sets this evening. I believe that it’s gonna be a real quiet day in Newark.”

COMMENT:  Are we supposed to be grateful for one day of peace in Newark?  Is that some great accomplishment?  When are we finally going to have an honest discussion about culture, and its impact on young people, in Newark, and, say, in Egypt? 

We will not have that discussion, for it will not be allowed in the media or the universities.  You have the right to remain silent, and silence is killing the future of this country.

February 18,  2012     Permalink

FEBRUARY 17,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:27 P.M. ET:

NOTHING TO SEE, NOTHING TO SEE – Authorities have arrested a man on his way to the Capitol, in Washington, to carry out a suicide attack.  The Moroccan immigrant, who was given fake "explosives" in a sting operation, thought the explosives he was carrying were genuine.  He was seized by the FBI and the Capitol Police.  Law enforcement began monitoring him in December.  Now repeat after me, class:  The war on terror is over.  There is no danger.

PROFESSIONAL SUICIDE – The American book publishing industry is in deep trouble, and one reason is excess and extravagance.  Publishing executives in Manhattan are often out of touch with the people down the hall, let alone the citizens of the United States.  Now we learn that Harper&Collins has made (or "inked" as they say in the trade) a $4-million deal with Amanda Knox, recently acquitted of murder in Italy.  Are these boys serious?  Does anyone really care?  Can't you wait for Amanda's true story?  I would be willing to bet that this book will never earn back its $4-million advance, but other, better books, will be denied publication because of the costs associated with this one.

THE DISGRACE, THE HORROR – We are very critical of President Obama here, however the man is entitled to a meal out occasionally.  But he has apparently sinned.  While visiting San Francisco he went into a Chinese restaurant, and left environmentalists stunned.  The restaurant serves shark fin soup, which the enviros say threatens the existence of sharks.  The president should make amends, pledging that, if the soup wipes out sharks in the ocean, he will replace them with sharks from Washington.  The Washington sharks would, of course, have to be brought up to the ocean sharks' ethical standards.

ANOTHER BLOW TO ROMNEY – Former Senator and current Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine has switched his endorsement from Mitt Romney to Rick Santorum.  This could have an impact on the critical Ohio primary, scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 6th.  DeWine was extremely critical of Romney, accusing him of running a negative campaign that only tears down opponents and doesn't offer any positive vision for the future of America. 

February 17, 2011       Permalink

THEY'RE WAKING UP! – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  It is always heartening to report when the Republican Party shows signs of life.  It is a rare event, noted by historians and physicians as well.  But we applaud it, just as we applaud any recognition by conservatives that they have a magnificent opportunity this year, if only they would seize it.

Republicans are discovering, hold your breath, the rise in gasoline prices and how that might impact this year's elections.  From The Politico:

Gasoline prices are on the rise, and Republicans are licking their chops.

It’s a familiar refrain: Once again, GOP lawmakers and conservative commentators are on the attack, blaming President Barack Obama for higher prices at the pump. And they’re promoting a “drill, baby drill” agenda as the answer.

“This debate is a debate we want to have,” House Speaker John Boehner told fellow Republican lawmakers in a closed-door session Wednesday morning.  “ABC News reported last night that we will soon see $4 a gallon gas prices. Maybe higher. Certainly, this summer will see the highest gas prices in years.

“Your constituents saw that report, and they’ll be talking about it,” Boehner added. “When they do, tell them about this bill that we’re working on.”

Boehner’s pitch was aimed at GOP members skittish about the massive transportation and energy plan currently on the floor, but the message was a familiar one: If gas prices rise, Obama falls.

The Washington Examiner columnist Paul Bedard used gas prices to attack Obama’s push to extend the payroll tax cut.

“Forget all the happy talk about how Americans, flush with their $1,000 payroll tax cut set to be extended by Congress, will be hitting the mall to spend, spend, spend. That cool grand won’t even cover the surge in gas prices under President Obama and will have to be nearly doubled if summer predictions of $5 regular come true,” Bedard wrote.

The average price of regular unleaded gasoline was $1.89 a gallon the week Barack Obama took office in January 2009, according to the Energy Information Administration. That was in the middle of the recession.

On Monday, it was $3.52, according to EIA.

COMMENT:  I paid $4.06 a gallon last night in White Plains, New York.  And I even had to go inside to the little food mart to get my receipt, as the printer on the gas pump was broken.

As we noted yesterday, Larry Sabato has shown that a president's approval more or less corresponds to rises in the price of gasoline.  The Republicans should play this issue to the hilt, pointing out the Obaman surrender to environmental extremists in stalling the Keystone Pipeline and other critical projects.

The price of energy is an issue that cuts across ideological lines, and Republicans must start concentrating on attracting the votes of independents, who will decide the election. 

February 17, 2011       Permalink

DESTROYING RUBIO – AT 8:33 A.M. ET:  There is now underway a concerted effort by the Democratic Party and its amen corner in the press to destroy Senator Marco Rubio, the rising Republican star from Florida.  Dems are particularly concerned that Rubio, who is from a family of anti-Castro Cuban immigrants, can cut into the Hispanic vote if he's placed on a national ticket.  From Fox: 

A conservative Hispanic group is coming to the defense of Republican Sen. Marco Rubio after Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid questioned the Cuban-American lawmaker's commitment to "Hispanic issues" given his early opposition to an ambassadorial nominee who is Puerto Rican.

Reid made the remark in an interview with The Politico. Reid criticized Rubio for initially opposing President Obama's nomination of Mari Carmen Aponte as ambassador to El Salvador.

"In Nevada, this woman is seen by the Puerto Rican community, the Hispanic community, as really somebody who is an up-and-rising star. ... I just think it's a mistake for someone who is supposedly representing Hispanic issues to do what (Rubio) has done," Reid said.

But Alfonso Aguilar, executive director of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, called the criticism by Reid and others "appalling."

"This blatant attempt at racial identity politics is offensive and condescending to all Latinos," he said in a statement Thursday.

"It's insulting for Reid and Obama's minions to imply that all Latinos support a person's nomination to federal office just because he or she is a fellow Latino. Many Latinos and Puerto Ricans opposed the nominations of Mari Carmen Aponte and (Supreme Court Justice) Sonia Sotomayor," Aguilar said.

COMMENT:  Ah, but Mr. Aguilar doesn't understand the way the Democratic Party, and the left generally, operate.  The first rule is that you don't question them...especially if you're a minority.  You're expected to go along with the party line, no matter how irrational that line is.  You don't cross certain leaders.  You don't think for yourself.  You don't think, period.  You just go along, or you'll be treated worse than any bigot ever treated you.

The Susan G. Komen for the Cure foundation, which has done more to raise awareness of breast cancer than any group in the world, recently learned its lesson when it tried to cut off its funding to Planned Parenthood, a liberal icon that is not to be questioned.  The resulting onslaught almost destroyed the Komen group, and has probably done it permanent damage. 

Marco Rubio will be the target of more sustained attacks.  He is a Hispanic who dares to question the accepted liberal orthodoxy.  He must therefore, in the minds of some on the left, be destroyed. 

February 17, 2011       Permalink 

BUT HOW WILL THEY DO IN OHIO? – AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  We're looking forward to Super Tuesday, March 6th, but there's another election that will probably impact us just as much.  Americans are not really aware of it:

(Reuters) - Loyalists of Iran's supreme leader, who is implacably hostile to the West and its drive to curb Tehran's nuclear work, look set to triumph in Iran's parliamentary poll at the expense of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in a contest among hardliners.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei turned against the man he backed in a disputed presidential vote in 2009 after Ahmadinejad challenged his authority over top government posts.

Ahmadinejad, first elected in 2005, had shown signs of seeking real power for the presidency, which in the Islamic Republic has always played second fiddle to the supreme leader in all state matters such as nuclear and foreign policy.

But Khamenei remains in the driving seat and the outcome of the March 2 election is unlikely to alter Iran's defiance of the West over its nuclear program, despite ever harsher sanctions and the possibility of an eventual military confrontation.

An alliance of clerics, elite Revolutionary Guards and influential bazaar merchants has made sure many pro-Ahmadinejad politicians cannot register to run for the assembly.

COMMENT:  In other words, we lose no matter who wins.  But will the American intelligence community finally understand the overpowering ideology of Iran's leaders, or will some intelligence "specialists" continue their delusional assumptions that Iran will always act rationally?

We are weak in this country in understanding ideology.  As we've noted here before, our Navy was utterly baffled by the Japanese kamikaze in World War II.  Our ambassador in Berlin before that war could not convince our own State Department that Hitler meant what he said.

This week the Polish government moved to honor the wonderful Jan Karski, the World War II Polish diplomat who first warned President Roosevelt of the Holocaust.  Many in the American government didn't believe him.  They could not conceive that anyone, especially the leaders of a "cultured" nation like Germany, could do any such thing.  Or, they just chose to avert their eyes.

Our confrontation with Iran is coming, and, given the mentality of our current leaders, victory, which includes continued American influence in the Mideast, is by no means assured.

February 17, 2011       Permalink

TARGET:  OLYMPICS? – AT 7:53 A.M. ET:  Britain's Sky News is reporting on a possible major plot by Al Qaeda and Iran, targeting this summer's London Olympics.  From Newsmax:

Iran has established an “operational relationship” with al-Qaida’s core leadership amid fears the terror organization is planning a spectacular attack against the West, according to a troubling new report.

Sky News reports that the attack could come in retaliation for the killing of Osama bin-Laden last year, or as retaliation for any strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. And a likely target of the terrorist attack would be the Olympic Games to be held this summer in London.

Iran has been supplying al-Qaida with training in the use of advanced explosives, funding, and a safe haven “as part of a deal first worked out in 2009 which has now led to ‘operational capacity,’” the Sky News website disclosed.

Some Western intelligence agencies have been skeptical of an alliance between Iran and al-Qaida. But last year the Obama administration directly accused Iran of supporting the terrorist group, a report by the intelligence analysis organization LIGNET revealed in August.

At that time, the United States sanctioned six alleged al-Qaida operatives and accused Iran of allowing them to operate in Iran to conduct operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

One of those six was a Syrian known as Yasin al-Sura, leader of al-Qaida in Iran, LIGNET reported.

The Obama administration last year offered a $10 million reward for information leading to al-Sura’s whereabouts, and Iran responded by placing him in protective custody, sources told Sky News.

The website reported that top al-Qaida leader Ayman al Zawahiri is now “believed to be planning a ‘classic’ al-Qaida attack, simultaneously on multiple locations.”

One source told Sky News: “We do know that an operation is underway. We assess that the most likely target is to be European. And the most obvious target in Europe for an attack that would attract a lot of attention would be the Olympic Games.”

COMMENT:  We cannot independently verify this report, of course, but it sounds entirely logical, and is consistent with the kind of things the named parties do.  The new head of Al Qaeda has not yet won his spurs, and an attack on the Olympics, reminiscent of the 1972 attack on the Munich Olympics, would be entirely logical.

I would imagine that this would be launched as an Al Qaeda operation only, with Iran doing everything to remove its fingerprints.  If proof could be presented of Iran's involvement, that would provide a perfect reason for a Western attack on the Iranian nuclear program.

The Olympics occur just before the American presidential election, which would obviously influence any response to a major terrorist act.  But how it would influence it cannot be predicted.  Obama is, well, kinda funny that way.

February 17,  2011    Permalink