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JANUARY 31,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:36 P.M. ET: 

CALIFORNIA NOT DREAMIN' – The California state controller warns that the state will run out of cash by early March if the legislature does not take immediate action.  Nothing like a well-planned state government.  The controller recommends borrowing and delaying some payments.  In the absence of action, residents might find delays in income tax refunds.  California used to be a glowing place, the destination for millions of Americans seeking the better life and a better climate.  The climate remains.  The better life is going up in flames.  The state is in serious economic trouble, and seems to go out of its way to drive out industry rather than attract it.

"GAME CHANGE" IS NO CHANGE – Hollywood can't get enough of hating Sarah Palin.  HBO's new film on the 2008 campaign, "Game Change," is reportedly very rough on Governor Palin, with a McCain adviser saying at one point about her selection, "Oh my God, what have we done?"  It's not a surprise.  All Sarah Palin had to do was utter four words – "I am pro choice" – and all would have been different.  But Hollywood liberals could not stand the idea that the first female vice president of the United States could possibly be a pro-life conservative.  It's a real hatred, a blindness.  As for HBO, that outfit used to make good movies some time ago, but I haven't heard anyone outside the film business refer to an HBO movie in years. 

KERRY'S NOSE – John Kerry, once a presidential candidate, showed up at the White House Monday with two black eyes and a broken nose.  It is reported that he suffered the injuries in a pick-up ice hockey game.  We actually hear from the best sources that Kerry beat himself with his own fists in frustration over the fact that a former Republican governor of his own state might become president of the United States.  The fire never dies.

GRIM TAX PROSPECT – The amount taken out of the national economy by the federal government, in the form of taxes, will rise by more than 30% between this year and 2014, according to a report issued by the Congressional Budget Office.  And the economy, according to this report, will remain sluggish in part because of higher taxes.  The U.S. economy will, the report projects, perform below its potential for six years, and unemployment will remain above seven percent for three more years.

January 31, 2012       Permalink

ROMNEY ROMPS – AT 9:01 P.M. ET:  Mitt Romney has won a decisive victory in the Florida primary.  The last-minute surge for Gingrich that some pollsters thought they saw never materialized. 

As it stands now, Romney is at 47%, Gingrich at 32%, with the others far behind.

Romney's victory speech was very strong.  He is getting better, and sounded like a president.  He spoke with the confidence of a nominee.  Wisely, he addressed his political attack toward President Obama, not the other candidates.

This did not turn out to be a close contest.  That will make it all the more difficult for Gingrich to raise funds and move forward.  His momentum has gotten a severe punch.  As for Rick Santorum, that fine man is truly struggling.  It's pretty clear that the anti-Romney voters have coalesced around Newt Gingrich. 

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, one of the true shining stars among the young Republicans, refused to endorse any candidate in the primary.  However, he said today, before the votes were counted, that whoever won Florida would win the nomination.  Since all signs pointed to Romney, that was a kind of political push, if not an endorsement.  It may have also been a signal to Romney that Rubio would be available as a vice presidential choice, and he'd be a good one.

The race is not over.  Remember that Gingrich came from behind in South Carolina to win that state's primary by about 13%, and no Republican has ever won the nomination without first winning South Carolina.  (This year may mark the exception.)  The states voting in the month ahead are not as friendly to Gingrich as is South Carolina – Nevada, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri, Arizona, Michigan and Washington.  Romney can have a reasonable expectation of doing very well in this period, especially in Michigan, where his father, George Romney, served as governor.

But the World Series, so to speak, occurs on March 6th, "Super Tuesday."  On that day the following states vote:  Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.  Gingrich may well win Georgia, his native state.  But Romney was governor of Massachusetts.  Virginia would have been the most interesting contest, but only Romney and Ron Paul are on the ballot because of Virginia's difficult ballot requirements.

If the outcome of the nomination battle is not clear by March 7th, we're in for a long, bitter fight.  My hunch, though, is that it will be clear. 

January 31, 2012       Permalink

WHILE WE VOTE – AT 9:15 A.M. ET:  While America's attention is on voting, and on the economy, events in the Mideast are heading in an ominous direction.  This will affect us down the line.  It always does.

It is reported that almost 100 people were killed in Syria yesterday, with approximately 80 killed the day before.  The Syrian bloodbath is ongoing.  The United States and some of its allies, especially France, are trying to get the UN to take action, but Russia, an ally of the Syrian regime, is resisting.  Syria, one of the most important of Arab countries, seems to be descending into a civil war. 

Syria also has a large stockpile of chemical weapons. 

Notice, by the way, the absence of any real concern by the Western left over the Syrian killings.  What a deep interest in human rights.

And over in Egypt we find another tragedy.  As the Muslim Brotherhood starts taking power, Egyptian Coptic Christians are living in increasing fear.  They are getting very little help from the outside.  From USA Today:

Once crowded with Christians, Cairo's Coptic quarter...is home to fewer than 50 Christian families.

"We know many Christians have left," says Mounir Ramsis, speaking not only about this quarter but about all of Egypt. "But we love this country and will stay until death."

The Arab Spring uprisings that have toppled secular dictatorships in the Middle East and North Africa have unleashed long-suppressed freedoms that have allowed Islamic parties to gain a share of political power they have been denied for decades. Their rise is creating near-panic among ancient Christian communities that dot the Muslim world and predate Islam by centuries.

•In Tunisia, where the regime of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was ousted last year after 32 years in power, the dominant political party, Ennahda, has worried some of Tunis' 22,000 Catholics by vowing to tilt the country's yet-to-be-written constitution toward sharia, or the detailed and often harsh system of Muslim theocratic laws.

•In Libya, Christians are uneasy as the powerful head of the Tripoli Military Council, Abdul Hakim Belhaj, who once led an Islamic militia with links to al-Qaeda, has said he plans to run for office in elections scheduled for April.

•In Afghanistan, no new building permits have been issued for churches, and the last church open to the public was demolished over the summer. In Iraq, the Christian community has decreased by two-thirds since 2003 amid bombings of churches and assassinations of priests.

COMMENT:   The plight of Christians in the Muslim world is a largely unreported story, but it is indicative of hard and destructive trends in many Muslim countries. 

But so little is being said in the West.  I wonder why.  Perhaps it's because the Western media is often so anti-religious that it just doesn't care.  Or maybe it's because the trendies, including some in church groups, fear being called "Islamophobic," which is the new catch phrase being used to suppress examination of what political Islam is doing.

The trends are not good.  Radical Islam seems to be the fastest-growing force in the world today.  Anybody listening?

January 31, 2012       Permalink

HIM AGAIN? – AT 8:52 A.M. ET:  A Mr. Donald Trump of New York is making new and serious noises about running for president as a third-party entry.   From ABC:

Donald Trump’s top political adviser told ABC News he’s speaking to “high-level political operatives” to explore a third-party presidential bid on behalf of the real estate mogul, in a sign that Trump may not quite be done with the 2012 presidential race just yet.

“I can confirm that over the past two weeks I have spoken with many high-level political operatives, campaign managers, finance directors — some of whom I have spoken to in the past. Most are new people from all over the country,” said Michael Cohen, executive vice president at the Trump Organization and special counsel to the reality-TV star.

“Until the time Mr. Trump decides to either endorse a candidate or run himself, I am exploring on his behalf the possibilities of ensuring Mr. Trump appears on the ballot in all states, and to develop a team of professionals who could ensure a potential victory,” Cohen added.

Back in March, Cohen met with Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn and 18 political operatives, activists and fundraisers in Iowa, but Trump decided not to run.

Trump, 65, himself indicated this weekend that he might pursue a third-party run.

“It’s a very sad situation what’s happening to the country,” he said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “I hope I don’t have to, but I may absolutely.”

COMMENT:  Trump is not known to be lacking in ego.  I doubt if he'd run unless he actually thinks, delusionally or not, that he can win.

And therein lies the danger.  A Trump candidacy, or one by Ron Paul, can easily siphon off enough votes to insure the re-election of Barack Obama.  It happened in 1992 when super-egotist Ross Perot ran as a third-party candidate and insured the election of Bill Clinton and the defeat of President George H.W. Bush.

Barack Obama has been remarkably lucky throughout his political career.  It's possible he will be very lucky again this year.

January 31, 2012       Permalink

A SEASON OF DISCONTENT – AT 8:26 A.M. ET:   There has, over the months, been a sense of frustration within the Republican Party.  Republicans just seem unhappy, uninspired by the slate of candidates they've been given for the presidency.

They know that 2012 presents a golden opportunity for their party.  With the right candidates, and a bit of luck, they know they can take the White House and the Senate, and retain the House.

With the right candidates.

Now a Pew Research poll confirms what we've been feeling, that this is the season of Republican discontent:

(CNN) - Republicans evaluating the field of potential GOP presidential nominees are increasingly negative about the current slate of candidates, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center.

Fifty-two percent of Republican and Republican-leaning registered voters said the GOP field was "fair or poor," an eight percentage-point increase since the question was asked in early January.

Likewise, the number of Republicans who had positive feelings about the candidates dropped. Forty-six percent rated the current field of four candidates "excellent or good," a drop from the 51% who had that response in January. The GOP field has undergone substantial change since then, with former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry dropping out of the contest.

Monday's poll from Pew, which was conducted in partnership with the Washington Post, is the first time since this election cycle the negative response from voters outweighed the positive. Pew began asking the question in May 2011.

COMMENT:  There is no Reagan.  That is the problem.  And once again we raise the question of someone coming in late to unify the party and become its nominee.  It will be difficult.  There is no Republican who is such a giant that he (or she) could enter late and command total respect. 

Eisenhower became the Republican nominee in 1952, even though no one seriously thought of him as a committed Republican.  But he was Eisenhower.  Name someone of that stature today. 

I can't deny that this is getting more interesting.

January 31, 2012        Permalink

FLORIDA VOTES – AT 7:58 P.M. ET:  The Florida primary is today, for those voters who chose not to vote in advance, which is permitted in Florida.

All polls point to a Romney victory, although the margin of victory predicted by the polls differs dramatically.  It could be a Romney blowout, but it could also be a close win.

We will be providing results and brilliant commentary tonight.  

In the aftermath of the primary, the key questions will be:  1)  If Newt loses big, can he make still one more comeback?  2)  Can Santorum afford to stay in at any realistic level?  3)  Will Ron Paul, seeing he really has no large base of support in the Republican Party, aim for a third-party bid instead?  4)  Will a dark horse, or even a light horse, emerge as the new anti-Romney?  5)  What will Jeb Bush's role be?

It's that last question that may turn out to be the most intriguing.  There have been a number of articles in the last few days about Jeb Bush, each asking what he's up to.  He didn't endorse any candidate in the Florida primary, although he's a former governor of that state.  He is being increasingly mentioned as a compromise candidate for president if the party is deadlocked later this year.  At minimum, his refusal to endorse keeps his options open.

Florida is the largest of the four states to vote thus far – Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina being the others.  It will be a major swing state in the election.  This is an important primary.

January 31,  2012     Permalink

JANUARY 30,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 8:24 P.M. ET:

IRAN DECEPTION – According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Iran has renamed 90 ships within the last year as part of a shell game to avoid international inspection.  The ships are being shuffled around "like a deck of cards in a Las Vegas casino" said one expert.  It is part of an active Iranian program to defy the sanctions placed on Tehran.  At the same time, India announces that it will not stop buying oil from Iran, rejecting international pressure to end the purchases.  President Bush was instrumental in bringing India into a more pro-Western stance, but there's been no progress under Barack "reach out" Obama.

FLORIDA LATEST – Florida votes within hours, but please note that thousands of Florida residents have already voted in the advance voting system that the state uses.  That fact is expected to help Romney.   All last-minute polls show Romney ahead, but his lead varies widely.  As we noted this morning, at least one poll has picked up what it claims is a last-minute surge for Gingrich.  We should know the whole story by late tomorrow night

JUSTICE TRIUMPHS – In a case that received widespread international attention, a Canadian jury has found an Afghan father, his wife, and their son guilty of killing the son's three teen-aged sisters and a woman called a "co-wife," in a crime the judge called "cold-blooded shameful murders" derived from a "twisted concept of honor."  The sisters apparently "dishonored" the family by defying its rules on dress and social conduct.  We have had these "honor" killings in the United States, but please note the indifference of so-called "feminist" groups to the plight of the women involved.  The left's worship of "multiculturalism" has muted criticism of these unspeakable outrages.

CHRISTIE SNAPS BACK – One reason conservatives love Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is the way he fights back against moonbat attacks from the political left.  His latest – describing as "numb-nuts" a pro-gay-marriage state legislator, Reed Gusciora, who'd said that Christie would have supported segregationist leaders in the old days.   “You have numb nuts like Reed Gusciora who put out a statement comparing me to George Wallace and Lester Maddox. Now, come on guys, at some point, you’ve got to able to call BS on those kind of press releases,” Christie said.  Christie is right on, of course, but the attacks will not stop.  The left has a vocabulary of about 30 words, with "racist" at the top.  It doesn't have much else.

January 30, 2012       Permalink

THE GREAT UNIFIER – NOT – AT 10:06 A.M. ET:   Even the liberal Washington Post is now conceding that President Obama, who came to office expecting to reach out his hands and unify a sinful America, is the most polarizing president in memory.  The numbers show it:

President Obama ran — and won — in 2008 on the idea of uniting the country. But, each of his first three years in office have marked historic highs in political polarization, with Democrats largely approving of him and Republicans deeply disapproving.

For 2011, Obama’s third year in office, an average of 80 percent of Democrats approved of the job he was doing in Gallup tracking polls, as compared to 12 percent of Republicans who felt the same way. That’s a 68-point partisan gap, the highest for any president’s third year in office — ever. (The previous high was George W. Bush in 2007, when he had a 59 percent difference in job approval ratings.)

In 2010, the partisan gap between how Obama was viewed by Democrats versus Republicans stood at 68 percent; in 2009, it was 65 percent. Both were the highest marks ever for a president’s second and first years in office, respectively.

What do those numbers tell us? Put simply: that the country is hardening along more and more strict partisan lines.

COMMENT:  I think that's true, and, although I'd like to, I can't blame it all on Obama.  Our parties are becoming increasingly ideological, and increasingly run by their most rigid elements.  It is a danger.  The genius of American politics lies in its practicality, not its ideology.  Americans tend to be idealistic, but not ideological.  Historically, at least during the greater part of the Cold War, there was a general consensus on foreign policy, a consensus that's been eroding since the late 1960s. 

The only thing that can get the parties back on track is strong, popular leadership.  I believe the public is yearning for that right now, and is not getting it from either party.

January 30, 2012       Permalink

THE GLOBAL WARMING FOLLIES – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  This quote was sent to me by the Science and Environmental Policy Project:

"...we redistribute de facto the world's wealth by climate policy...One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore..." IPCC co-chair of Working Group 3, Dr. Ottmar Endenhofer, November 13, 2010 interview [H/t Dr. Charles Battig]

The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, part of the UN, is the highly controversial "central body" for evaluating climate information.  Some believe it is more interested in political science than real science, as evidenced by the quote above.  And there is reasonable suspicion that the group exists more to promote itself and its employment opportunities than to advance an understanding of climate.

I've sensed that there is more and more skepticism about the climate-change agenda.  We seem to hear fewer and fewer claims about "settled science," an absurd notion, as science is never settled.   We see "green energy" companies getting huge federal grants, and then going into bankruptcy, leading to the suspicion that "climate change" is more about money than about temperature. 

As is often the case, aggressive British reporters seem to be leading the charge to open the climate industry's can of worms.   From the Daily Mail:

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

What?  Global cooling?  And you may be sure that the same people who financially benefit from the "global warming" craze will benefit from cooling as well. 

I wish we had in the U.S. the kind of vigorous reporting on this issue that British readers are getting.  But political correctness and a blind worship of "science" still grip the mainstream media.  And the Obama administration, being trendy and thoughtless, is still committed to the warming "narrative."

What we need is a Challenger-style commission of eminent, neutral scientists to examine the whole field to determine what's true and what's not.  I fear we'll never get that commission.  Who'll want to be on it?

January 30, 2012       Permalink

WHILE AMERICA SLEEPS – AT 8:18 A.M. ET:   While we sleep, and, under Obama, America cuts its defenses, others plan.   You'll recall the Times Square bomber, who was able to plant a massive bomb in New York's Times Square.  The only thing that saved lives was his incompetence in constructing and triggering the bomb.

Now we find out from a fine piece of exclusive journalism in the New York Post, that the jihadists are learning from that bomber's mistakes, and will likely try again:

That’s no way to blow up infidels. This is how you blow up infidels.

Since an Islamist’s botched attempt to detonate a bomb in Times Square in 2010, the feds have been monitoring other would-be jihadists, who have been meticulously dissecting his failure on the Internet to improve the chances of a future attack, according to government records obtained by The Post.

The terrorist teachers said they pored over news reports of failed bomber Faisal Shahzad’s actions and his capture two days later at Kennedy Airport. In offering “critiques,” they displayed admiration for Shahzad’s willingness to act but also noted some sloppiness — and, in a few cases, even offered bulleted points of instruction for the future.

And...

The strategic advice for would-be bombers was written in a combination of English and Arabic and riddled with typos and grammatical mistakes. But the meaning is clear.

Their suggestions touched on everything from cellphone use to transportation to and from the scene to hiding one’s identity.

“There are both good things that Brother Faisal Shahzad did and other things that he should have been careful about,” one commenter wrote. “The intention here is not to criticize his mistakes. Rather, it is to serve as a warning for other brothers to be careful and pay attention to little details in upcoming operations . . . Don’t be a victim of convenience.”

COMMENT:  Democracies tend to fall asleep unless there is an immediate threat presented to them.  Americans see Obama withdrawing from Iraq and planning to withdraw from Afghanistan.  They're told by the administration that "a decade of war" is coming to an end.  How can we expect them to be alert, to recognize the coming dangers?

Sadly, it will take another attack on American soil to wake us from our slumber.  We hope an attack never succeeds, but we should be anything but complacent.

January 30, 2012       Permalink

FLORIDA LATEST – AT 8:01 A.M. ET:  Wht is this, something new?  Just as we were preparing for a Romney romp in Florida tomorrow, a new, very late poll from a firm with a solid history this year, says it is picking up a Gingrich surge.  From Newsmax:

A new InsiderAdvantage poll conducted Sunday night of likely Republican voters in the state of Florida shows a significant surge for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

The poll has former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney leading with 36 percent of voters, followed by Gingrich at 31 percent.

The Sunday results of 646 likely GOP voters are as follows:
Romney 36 percent
Gingrich 31 percent
Santorum 12 percent
Paul 12 percent
Other/Undecided 9 percent

"The race will be tighter than expected," Matt Towery, chief pollster of InsiderAdvantage told Newsmax.

Towery noted that his poll showed a surge for Romney on Wednesday, with him leading Gingrich by 8 points. The InsiderAdvantage poll was among the first to show Romney's resurgence after his dismal showing in the S. Carolina primary.

The InsiderAdvantage poll was also the first to show Gingrich's rise in S. Carolina and accurately forecast his win there.

"The trend is favoring Gingrich," Towery said, noting that while Romney's lead was still outside the margin of error of 3.8 percent, "It's not by much."

Towery said Gingrich is doing "substantially better" with men than Romney, 38 to 28, but the former House Speaker still faces a "gender gap," as women are still favoring Romney.

"Men are moving in droves to Gingrich and away from Romney," Towery said.

As for Florida's important Latino vote, InsiderAdvantage has Gingrich beating Romney by a large margin, leading 42 percent to 29 percent.

COMMENT:  We stress that this is a poll, a snapshot.  Past accuracy is no guarantee that this survey will prove correct, but it certainly is intriguing.  It's also part of the fun of politics. 

We'll know tomorrow night.  But if there's a last-minute Gingrich surge, and we note that Insider Advantage is the only poll that is reporting this, the post-primary thinking and commenting will be drastically different from what we'd come to expect.  Romney had presumably put this one away.

This poll appears to be the latest one taken, which is why we even mention it.  We saw a late Romney collapse in Sputh Carolina.  If it happens again we could be in for a very long and politically bloody campaign.

January 30,  2012     Permalink