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MAY 3,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:25 P.M. ET:  

BRITAIN VOTES – Britain voted in municipal elections today, and early returns match the predictions – a major victory for Labour.   Of course, these elections are not for the House of Commons, but for local offices, but they do indicate dissatisfaction with the odd conservative/liberal coalition government of David Cameron.  The most important election is for mayor of London, pitting conservative incumbent Boris Johnson against the former mayor, Ken Livingstone, known as "Red Ken" for his leftist leanings.  Livingstone is also a committed Islamist.  Johnson is expected to be re-elected, making him a major national conservative figure.

RUSSIA THREATENS – Obama was caught on an open microphone recently, projecting weakness, when he told Russian President Medvedev that he could be more "flexible" in policies toward Moscow when (if) re-elected.  That didn't seem to impress Russia's top military guy, Chief of General Staff Nikolai Makarov, who is now threatening to strike NATO missile-defense sites in Eastern Europe before they are ready if the U.S. goes ahead with plans to deploy defensive missiles.  Another famous Obama foreign-policy moment.

SERVICE INDUSTRIES SLOWING – A new economic report just released by the Institute for Supply Management says the modest growth in America's service sector is slowing, and that consumer confidence is weakening.  Both trends signal a cooling economy.  As we noted earlier today, financial observers are awaiting, with some apprehension, tomorrow's report on job creation in April.

WHOOPS – A bit of bother, as the Brits say.  NATO will be holding a major meeting in the president's home city of Chicago later this month, but apparently some of our European friends haven't hit the reference books.  A NATO video about the meeting informs us that Chicago is the capital of Illinois.  As Lincoln might have reminded the gents, it's actually Springfield.  The video also says that President Obama wanted to have the meeting in the city he grew up in.  Uh, would that be Honolulu?  Jakarta, Indonesia?  It certainly wasn't Chicago.  I hope NATO is better at identifying hostile targets. 

May 3, 2012       Permalink

PATHETIC – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  Harvard Law Professor Elizabeth Warren, who earns a mint as a law professor and private lawyer, is running for the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts as a kind of "people's" candidate.  Her opponent is Senator Scott Brown, and the race, in the bluest of blue states, is close.

Warren, though, keeps on getting into trouble.  She's heavily into the "race, gender and ethnicity" industry, and has claimed to be part native American.  (It turns out she's 1/32 native American, not exactly a convincing figure, unless you want to go by the racial standards of the old South.)  Apparently, she's used her "heritage" to good advantage, something that's been exposed:  From the Boston Herald:

Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, fending off questions about whether she used her Native American heritage to advance her career, said today she enrolled herself as a minority in law school directories for nearly a decade because she hoped to meet other people with tribal roots.

“I listed myself in the directory in the hopes that it might mean that I would be invited to a luncheon, a group something that might happen with people who are like I am. Nothing like that ever happened, that was clearly not the use for it and so I stopped checking it off,” said Warren.

The Harvard Law professor argued she didn’t use her minority status to get her teaching jobs, and slammed her Republican rival U.S. Sen.Scott Brown for suggesting otherwise.

“The only one as I understand it who’s raising any question about whether or not I was qualified for my job is Scott Brown and I think I am qualified and frankly I’m a little shocked to hear anybody raise a question about whether or not I’m qualified to hold a job teaching,” she said, pushing to put Brown on defense. “What does he think it takes for a woman to be qualified?”

COMMENT:  Please note that, having been exposed as a hustler on the racial background issue, Warren immediately plays the gender card.  It's so nineteen-sixties! 

Earlier in the campaign we learned that she earns in the high six figures a year, and has a home in the seven figures in Cambridge.  It's getting tiresome, Elizabeth.  It really is.

But Massachusetts is Massachusetts, and Brown only leads by two points.  Massachusetts will go heavily for Obama, and the presidential turnout can bring in Warren, who would immediately become a presidential favorite of the trendies for 2016.

May 3, 2012       Permalink

THE NEW EGYPT – AT 9:09 A.M. ET:  Egypt will elect a new president this month, but conditions in the country are chaotic.  The dreams of the "Arab spring" are fading.  From the Los Angeles Times:

CAIRO — At least 11 people were killed Wednesday when unknown attackers armed with guns and firebombs clashed with protesters near Egypt's Defense Ministry in an escalation of violence highlighting political divisions that threaten the country ahead of this month's presidential election.

Assailants stormed about 500 demonstrators at dawn, many of them supporters of Hazem Salah abu Ismail, an ultraconservative Islamist preacher recently disqualified from the presidential race. Police did not intervene for hours, and authorities said as many as 200 people were wounded in the nation's worst violence in months.

The bloodshed exacerbated tension that has engulfed the country since last year's overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak. The election scheduled May 23-24 is seen as a critical step in the transition to democracy. But unrest and the military's hold on power have fueled anger and political uncertainty and led to new calls for large street marches.

The clashes prompted presidential candidates, including Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a progressive Islamist, and Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood to suspend their campaigns. They criticized the military for a lack of security reminiscent of the soccer riot in Port Said in February that left more than 70 people dead.

COMMENT:  Democracy isn't just one election, which Egypt will have.  It's a way of life, a way of thinking, a way of looking at other citizens.  That concept of democracy isn't emerging in Egypt.  What strikes us is the silence of the United States, which hustled former President Mubarak, who was pro-American, out of office.  Mr. Obama appears content with having a new Islamic state.  It's a strange form of contentment, which American citizens should not share.

May 3, 2012       Permalink

MUDDLED ECONOMIC REPORT – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  We mentioned in the post just below that the White House could not take comfort in recent economic reports.  Well, it might take some guarded comfort in numbers released this morning, as it braces for a monthly job-creation report tomorrow:

(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, according to a government report on Thursday that could ease fears the labor market recovery was stalling.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 365,000, the Labor Department said. That was the biggest weekly drop since early May last year.

The prior week's figure was revised up to 392,000 from the previously reported 388,000. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, edged up 750 to 383,500 - the highest level since December.

However...

The data has no bearing on the government's closely watched employment report for April, to be released on Friday. Employers are expected to have added 170,000 new jobs to their payrolls last month, a step up from March's 120,000 tally, according to a Reuters survey.

However, there is a downside risk to this forecast as initial claims were elevated for much of April. An independent survey on Wednesday showed private employers added only 119,000 jobs last month, the fewest in seven months, and well below economists' expectations for a gain of 177,000 positions.

COMMENT:   We'll await tomorrow's report.  And always remember that it takes 150,000 new jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth. 

Obama doesn't have much time to pump things up before election day.  It usually takes months for any new initiatives to work their way through the economy.  However, don't be shocked if he makes some major proposals, and that the GOP House turns them down, giving Obama the opportunity to blame "Republican obstructionism" for the economy.  He'll also blame Bush and Cheney, with Herbert Hoover thrown in.

May 3, 2012       Permalink

KEY STATES TIGHTENING – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  From the Politico:

Consistent with national polling suggesting the 2012 race has tightened since the end of the GOP primary, Quinnipiac shows Mitt Romney closing the gap against the president in Florida and Ohio.

They are more or less tied in Florida, where Romney had 44 percent to Obama's 43 percent, and Ohio, where Obama has 44 percent to Romney's 42 percent. At the end of March, Obama was ahead by mid-single digits in both states.

Pennsylvania is a different story. There, Obama has an 8-point lead over Romney now, 47 percent to 39 percent, after leading by only 3 points in Quinnipiac's last swing-state poll.

COMMENT:  How significant are these numbers at this point in the campaign?  Not very.  The election is six months away.  But the fact that an incumbent president is in danger of losing some of the critical swing states cannot bring comfort to the White House.  And the fact that economic numbers have not been glowing cannot bring relief either.

On the other hand, the president's flash trip to Afghanistan, complete with an address to the nation, shows the power of  incumbency, a power that will be used over and over by this White House as part of its permanent campaign. 

The formal campaign won't actually begin until after the conventions.  It will be vicious.

May 3,  2012     Permalink

MAY 2,  2012

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:18 P.M. ET:

NORTH KOREAN NUKES – A prominent expert on nuclear weapons claims that North Korea has now stockpiled enough weapons-grade uranium to build six atomic bombs.  That's six cities inconvenienced.  There are growing concerns that North Korea, which just had a failure in a missile test, will try to make up for it by a new nuclear test in the coming weeks.

ANOTHER ECONOMIC WARNING – New orders for American factory-produced goods declined in March by the biggest percentage in three years, another sign that the recovery is fizzling.  Demand for transportation equipment and many other goods declined.  At the same time, VISA recorded a major profit advance, but that news must be viewed carefully.  Buying on credit may simply be a sign of frustration, rather than economic expansion.

TROUBLE IN WISCONSIN – A Marquette University poll shows President Obama widening his lead in the battleground state of Wisconsin, to 51-42.  That's up from 48-43 in March.  The same poll shows that, if Republican Governor Scott Walker is recalled in a June vote, he would stand no better than an even chance of being re-elected against Democratic Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee.  Wisconsin has many conservative communities, but also has large numbers of liberal to left die-hard voters in Milwaukee and the daffy university town of Madison. 

CATHOLICS EVENLY SPLIT – American Catholics are evenly split between Obama and Romney, according to Gallup.  The polling stands at 46-46.  Within the Catholic community, though, there are dramatic variations, according to background.  Hispanic Catholics favor Obama 70-20, whereas "white" Catholics favor Romney 55-38.  Catholics make up a quarter of the American voting public.  But, as Gallup points out, there is today no "typical" Catholic voter.  Catholic voters are a substantially diverse lot.

May 2,  2012     Permalink

THE CHICAGO WAY – AT 10:03 A.M. ET:  Michael Barone, one of the great political analysts, weighs in on the election campaign thus far, and finds Chicago thuggery is the main dish on the Obama campaign menu.  From the Washington Examiner:

It has been reported that the Obama campaign this year, as in 2008, has disabled or chosen not to use AVS in screening contributions made by credit card.

That doesn't sound very important. But it's evidence of a modus operandi that strikes me as thuggish.

AVS stands for Address Verification System. It's the software that checks whether the name of the cardholder matches his or her address.

If a campaign doesn't use AVS, it can wind up accepting contributions from phony names or accepting contributions from foreigners, both of which are illegal.

The 2008 Obama campaign pocketed money from "John Galt, 1957 Ayn Rand Lane, Galts Gulch CO 99999" and $174,000 from a woman in Missouri who told reporters she had given nothing and had never been billed. Presumably she would have noticed an extra charge of $174,000.

The Obama campaign is evidently happy to pocket the money. After all, this is the president who, according to political scientist Brendan Doherty, has appeared at more fundraisers in three and a half years than his six predecessors did in 35 years...

...Obama talks a good game on transparency and openness, but he's ready to flout the law by avoiding AVS and to break his high-minded campaign promises.

COMMENT:  The fact is that Mr. Obama, despite his fine qualities (and he does have them), is basically a minor Chicago politician with a golden voice and a winning manner.  But he always reverts back to raw politics, which is his strongest skill.  Governing comes far behind.  I only wish he had come along 10 or 15 years later, when experience might have given him the qualities to lead the nation successfully.  But we deal with what we have.

May 2, 2012       Permalink

CNN IN CRISIS – AT 9:10 A.M. ET:  CNN, which I actually think has shown some qualitative improvement in the last year, is experiencing one of the worst ratings declines in its history.  Can this operation survive?  From Deadline Hollywood:

It’s no April Fool’s joke — last month CNN delivered its lowest-rated month in total day in over a decade, since August 2001, the month before the September 11 attacks. The once-dominant cable news network posted decade-lows among both total viewers (357,000) and Adults 25-54 (108,000). Versus April last year, CNN was down 21% in total viewers and 29% in 25-54. In comparison, leader Fox News Channel was up 2% in total viewers (1.1 million) and 1% in 25-54 (273,000) and No.2 MSNBC was flat in total viewers (425,000) and down 5% in 25-54 (139,000).

Things did not look brighter for CNN in the evening where its shows too posted across-the-board declines: John King USA at 6 PM was down 41% in the 25-54 demo, Erin Burnett Outfront at 7 PM was down 34%, Piers Morgan was down 14% at 9PM, and Anderson Cooper 360 was down 8% at 8 PM and 28% at 10PM. In primetime, CNN had its lowest rated month in nearly two years, since August 2010, in both total viewers (508,000, down 16% from last year) and adults 25-54 (149,000, down 22%). Meanwhile FNC (1.9 million, 395,000 in 25-54) was flat in total viewers from last April and down 9% in 25-54. MSNBC (754,000; 236,000) was down 5% and 9%, respectively.

COMMENT:  I'm guessing that viewers are choosing sides – the liberals going to MSNBC and the conservatives to Fox.  While CNN is hardly neutral – it tilts decidedly liberal – viewers may see it as lacking spark, which is true.

CNN's game is to portray itself as "the most trusted name in news."  Of course, that's absurd.  If it built a great, pure news operation, it might get those numbers up.  But too often it drifts back into its biases.  Its "CNN Presents" series, weekend documentary presentations, is essentially a love song to race, gender and ethnicity, the big three of modern liberalism.

Many CNN reporters play it straight.  John King is a good political guy.  Wolf Blitzer runs a solid news show in late afternoon.  But Fareed Zakaria, a third-world leftie with a know-it-all attitude, is painful after 30 seconds, and they give him a lot more time than that on CNN.  Christine Amanpour is drifting back to CNN, which would ruin everything.  Her love letter to Barack Obama on election day, 2008, stands as one of the great disgraces of modern journalism.

CNN needs higher standards, although, as I noted, they've improved.  But the network also needs to rid itself of all bias, and all ridiculousness.  Not easy in an already biased industry.

May 2, 2012       Permalink 

THE OTHER MULLEN – We mentioned in our first post today, just below, that the man we quoted, Rev. Peter Mullen, was one of two Mullens to make news today.  The other is Admiral Mike Mullen (ret), former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Mullen was in the famous picture of America's top leaders, in the situation room, taken during the bin Laden raid. 

Have you ever wondered what our military men and women think of Obama?  We're getting some sense of it now, as many former Navy seals, and others with long military careers, express their revulsion at Obama's taking too much credit for the killing of bin Laden.  As one retired general said last night, the only time a leader should mention himself is to take blame, never credit.  Credit is given to those whose lives are on the line.

Admiral Mullen weighs in with his comments, as reported by the Washington Times:

Adm. Mike Mullen, the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has joined the chorus of concern about the politicization of Osama bin Laden's killing a year ago Tuesday.

The retired four-star admiral told NBC News that he worries "a great deal" that the bin Laden raid could become a political football this campaign season, although he did not specifically call out President Obama and his campaign for doing so.

"Well, I worry about it, just because it's the political season," Adm. Mullen said. "And from my perspective, the president's support, the decision that he made, and obviously, the result stand alone in terms of the kind of call presidents have to make, and he made it. I do worry a great deal that this time of year that somehow this gets spun into election politics. I can assure you that those individuals who risk their lives — the last thing in the world that they want is to be spun into that. So I'm hoping that that doesn't happen."

COMMENT:  An exceedingly diplomatic comment, proper for Mullen, but you know exactly what he's saying.  He properly gives Obama the credit for making the right call, but expresses concern over politicization.  Well, who dragged it into politics?  Obama, again and again.

May 2, 2012       Permalink

BOY, THAT WAS WEIRD – AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  Did you see Obama's campaign speech from Afghanistan last night?  Strange, wasn't it?  Obama, under the great drama of secrecy, flies to the war-torn country to sign a minor agreement and give a speech that could have been given at a chicken lunch in Des Moines.

As usual, a Brit provides the deadliest insight into the president's non-event.  Conservative cleric Peter Mullen, one of two Mullens to make news today, has it right in London's Telegraph:

Barack Obama has told the citizens of the US that a decade “under the dark cloud of war" is almost over and that his administration is on course to destroy al-Qaeda. In a massively hyped speech – well, it is election year over there – the President told the American people that the US combat role in Afghanistan was now also winding down, just as it already has in Iraq.

Speaking from a military airbase in Afghanistan on the anniversary of Osama bin Laden’s death, he insisted: "We can see the light of a new day on the horizon."

This is pure cloud cuckoo land oratory. “The light of a new day” is the headlights of the next suicide bomber’s approaching car. With devastating naivete the US government has announced the date of its planned withdrawal from Afghanistan – so the Taliban will simply lie low until that date and then re-emerge to take over whatever might be remaining of Karzai’s corrupt and failed state.

Obama’s speech gave the impression that he believes victory in Afghanistan – which he has no chance of achieving in any case – represents victory over al-Qaeda. This is mere folly. Al-Q-aeda are as ubiquitous as the common cold virus. They are in Yemen, Syria, Somalia, Sudan and, by their proxies, in Nigeria where they are proving to be particularly barbaric. The Americans show no signs of defeating the terrorist organization in any of those places.

Within hours of Obama’s trip to Afghanistan, the Taliban left a calling-card reminder that they had been listening attentively to the President’s speech by exploding a car bomb in Kabul where the leader of the US had been just hours earlier..

COMMENT:  That says it.  The president's speech was farcical, a throwback to Chamberlain bringing the British people "peace in our time" on his return from Munich.  All Obama needed was the umbrella...but he's way too cool to carry an umbrella. 

I thought the speech should have ended with a rousing rendition of "There's No Business Like Show Business," but the Marine Band had more important things to do.

May 2,  2012     Permalink