SECOND EVENING POST:  JULY 31,  2008

Posted at 10:53 p.m. ET

A WOMAN FOR JOHN?

This is speculation, and should be brightly labeled as such, but The Washington Times is reporting buzz that the McCain campaign is looking at possible female choices for vice president.

Sen. John McCain's growing popularity among women is fueling speculation about the possibility that he will select a female running mate, ripening talk about conservative favorite Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska, and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, one of his top economic advisers.

Political pundits, election strategists and even some Democrats say putting a dynamic woman on the Republican ballot would tip independents, especially the "security moms" who helped President Bush win re-election in 2004.

"If McCain picked a woman, it would certainly get the attention and perhaps votes of some Democrats and a number of independents who supported Hillary Clinton," said Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh.

And who might that candidate be?

"Sarah Palin is a great choice," said Grover Norquist, a Republican activist best known for his economic conservatism.

"She's got it all, and is a remarkable leader who brings a number of good qualities to the table," said Wendy Wright, president of Concerned Women for America.

Newt Gingrich agrees:

Mrs. Palin is "a mother of five, is a genuine Alaskan, is a hunter, is a dogsledder, is very much for drilling for oil, has a great reform reputation, took on big oil on behalf of the people of Alaska," Mr. Gingrich said. "I think she would bring a level of excitement and uniqueness that people would have to stop and say, 'Boy, this is kind of intriguing.' "

Yes she would.  No doubt about that.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama has been wowing audiences worldwide, and during the primaries his soaring rhetoric prompted reports of women swooning at his rallies. Mr. Obama enjoys massive support from women under 40, leading the Republican candidate by 13 points, according to the latest Fox News survey.

But Mr. McCain leads among women in their 40s by four points and among women 50 and older by three points. While the Arizona senator's margins are slim, Democratic presidential candidates have traditionally led in those categories by 15 points or more, said former Clinton adviser Dick Morris...

...Women made up 54 percent of the electorate in 2004, when "security moms" turned out in droves to support Mr. Bush.

We've pointed out before that female voters tend to be stereotyped by the press.  Most male journalists assume they'll automatically vote for an "attractive" man.  But in 1960 it was the bland Richard Nixon who won the female vote, not the dashing Jack Kennedy.  In fact, there's very little evidence that women, especially mature women, are swayed heavily by a male candidate's "attractiveness."

A woman for McCain?  Could shake things up.  And a little excitement is needed.

July 31, 2008. 

FIRST EVENING POST:  JULY 31,  2008

Posted at 7:02 p.m. ET

SENSITIVITY

It is remarkable to see how sensitive the Obama camp is.  Any criticism seems to "wound" this flock.  They seem truly to believe that they are on a religious mission, and answerable only to a higher authority, that authority being their candidate.

Now their sense of eternal grievance is leading them to take the most drastic step of all for those whose lives are lived entirely in the spiritual realm - they're getting a new website.  That they are forced to do this shows how low we have sunk as a nation:

Battling what campaign aides called John McCain's "gutter distractions," Sen. Barack Obama launched a new website dubbed "The Low Road Express," designed to counter a wave of new attack ads against him.

On a campaign conference call, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe called this "an election of great consequence" and accused McCain of making a calculated decision to pivot to "character assaults and negative ads."

Absolutely right.  Why should character be a factor in any election?  We should simply assume Obama's loftiness.  Why, he does, doesn't he?

And negative ads?  I guess all those charges that McCain is just Bush's third term are really positive, just expressed differently.  I must learn to appreciate Obama's subtlety.

Plouffe did not directly address the McCain campaign's charge that Obama had "played the race card" by saying the Republican and his allies would use Obama's appearance and name to "scare" voters.

Over past months, Obama has warned that unnamed opponents would use such tactics, but earlier this summer, he began to label those forces "Republican" and yesterday, he specifically said such tactics would come from McCain.

More positive campaigning from Obama.  What an uplifting message:  John McCain is a racist.  I feel spiritual already.

Asked what instances Obama was referring to, Plouffe demurred before replying, "What we're seeing out of the McCain campaign, the Republican Party and some of their allies have been some very aggressive charges."

Not allowed.  No aggressive charges permitted from McCain.  Who does he think he is, Barack Obama?

July 31, 2008.

SECOND AFTERNOON POST:  JULY 31,  2008

Posted at 2:57 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Both trackers are now out for today, and they tell a story.  As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up two over McCain.

But in the Gallup survey, Obama's lead has shrunk to one point, from four yesterday, and nine over the weekend.  Obama's trip was a bust.  You know, maybe if he'd just brought back better slides...

So the trackers have Obama's lead at an average of 1.5 points.  All those foreign leaders who got their suits pressed to meet him must suddenly be "reaching out" to the McCain campaign.  I can just hear their excuses:  "Look, I had to meet him.  It was the courteous thing, President McCain."

Why Obama's fade?  We can only engage in informed speculation.  Pundits keep on saying that he's a fresh face, but he isn't that fresh anymore.  He's been on the evening news for months and months, and there's a point where the style becomes stale.  And his arrogance is grating.  Further, he's making mistakes.  Suggesting that John McCain is running a racist campaign was not smart since it isn't true.  It also diminishes Obama's standing as a supposedly "post-racial" candidate, which he clearly is not. 

But don't break out the champagne yet.  The only poll that counts is the one on election day, and that's far away.

July 31, 2008.      Permalink          

SNIPPET:

From the Denver Post:  "For the first time ever, former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and acclaimed actor Ben Affleck will appear in public together to discuss international relations at the 2008 Democratic National Convention."

I just can't wait.  I cannot wait.

SNIPPET:

From a study of the British parliament:  "A confidential survey of MPs and peers suggests that one in five parliamentarians suffers from mental illness caused by the stress of their public lives."

Now let's study the US Congress, especially the Democratic side.  I'm sure there's mental illness there too - caused by their self-described status as victims of social oppression and evangelical conspiracies.  Pass it on.

EARLY AFTERNOON POST:  JULY 31, 2008

Posted at 1:02 p.m. ET

ATTACK

Carrie Budoff Brown, in The Politico, reports that John McCain's needling of Barack Obama is beginning to gain traction. Even the late-night comedians are starting to regard Obama as a fair target.

It wasn’t until the last week, however, that the narrative of Obama as a president-in-waiting — and perhaps getting impatient in that waiting — began reverberating beyond the inboxes of Washington operatives and journalists.

Perhaps one of the clearest indications emerged Tuesday from the world of late-night comedy, when David Letterman offered his “Top Ten Signs Barack Obama is Overconfident.” The examples included Obama proposing to change the name of Oklahoma to “Oklobama” and measuring his head for Mount Rushmore.

“When Letterman is doing ‘Top Ten’ lists about something, it has officially entered the public consciousness,” said Dan Schnur, a political analyst from the University of Southern California and the communications director in John McCain’s 2000 campaign. “And it usually stays there for a long, long time.”

Following a nine-day, eight-country tour that carried the ambition and stagecraft of a presidential state visit, Obama has found himself in an unusual position: the butt of jokes.

It's about time.  Maybe the wind is shifting.

And the snickers about Obama’s perceived smugness may have a very real political impact as McCain's camp launched its most forceful effort yet to define him negatively. It released a TV ad Wednesday describing Obama as the “biggest celebrity in the world,” comparable to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears, stars who are famous for attitude rather than accomplishments.

The harsher treatment from comedians and columnists — coupled with the shift by McCain from attacking on policy to character issues — underscores the fine line that Obama is walking between confident and cocky. Once at pains to present himself as presidential, Obama now faces criticism for doing it too well.

And...

Bloggers at the Huffington Post launched a backlash to the backlash against Obama’s overseas trip, arguing in part that he wouldn’t face such criticism of acting premature if he were white.

See below, our Urgent Agenda story entitled "Smear."  The race card seems to be the only one in the deck.

And other Dems shrug off the new criticism of the sainted candidate:

"Self-absorbed press speculation,” concluded consultant Bob Shrum, the chief strategist during John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. “Most Americans are not paying the slightest bit of attention to this.”

How many presidential elections did Shrum lose?  I think I lost count at four.  And, oh, Earth to Shrum:  If Americans aren't paying "the slightest bit" of attention, how do you account for the bounce, although brief, that Obama got from his trip?  I guess only the people polled were paying attention.

One thing I always observe in liberals is their contempt for the American people.

The McCain campaign piled on with its “Celeb” ad, which juxtaposed Obama’s speech to 200,000 people in Berlin with photos of Spears and Hilton.

“Do the American people want to elect the world’s biggest celebrity, or do they want to elect an American hero?” Steve Schmidt, one of McCain’s top aides, asked on a conference call.

They stayed personal later in the day when responding to Obama’s suggestion at a Missouri town hall that Republicans would use his unusual name and his race to paint him as a risky choice.

“This is a typically superfluous response from Barack Obama. Like most celebrities, he reacts to fair criticism with a mix of fussiness and hysteria,” McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said.

The McCain side should follow through on this theme - Obama's inability to take a punch.  All you do is criticize him, and he falls apart.  Even a tough question can do it.  He has one political skill - an ability to give a scripted speech.

Brown correctly points out that there is danger in this scenario for both McCain and Obama:

The strategy has very real potential dangers for Team McCain. Obama’s unmistakable charisma and his campaign’s deft brand of stagecraft have created an often lopsided contrast with McCain’s sometimes painful-to-watch public events. As presidents as diverse as Ronald Reagan and John Kennedy showed, Americans do like a touch of celebrity in their commander in chief; though not too much...

...But the slippery slope for Obama is allowing a McCain campaign that is searching for a consistent theme with which to attack him to latch on to a way of making him seem alien to ordinary Americans.

The race is already tightening.  In a Democratic year, Obama should be much further ahead, probably in double digits.

I'm glad McCain is taking off the gloves.  The notion that legitimate criticism is somehow low is absurd.  It's part of the normal stuff of politics.  Lincoln got skewered all the time, and he took it.  Obama might examine that precedent, as he clearly regards himself as right up there with Abe, or maybe a bit higher.

July 31, 2008.      Permalink          

SNIPPET:

Rasmussen tracker reporting this morning that Obama has a two-point lead, same as yesterday.  It's 48-46.

Obama, even after meeting everyone overseas but Churchill and Stalin, still cannot make the sale.  McCain has a real shot at this.  Obama will try to see Churchill next week.

SNIPPET:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Al Gore, long mocked as an exaggerating bore, seems certain to land a lead role at the Democratic National Convention as an internationally recognized defender of the Earth.

Just wanted to remind you to set your video recorder.

ADDITIONAL MORNING POST:  JULY 31,  2008

Posted at 8:26 a.m. ET

STATE POLLS

He's not ahead, but new polls show that McCain is making progress in some key states:

Florida, now 46-44 Obama:

Independent voters in the state have shifted toward McCain -- 46 percent support him compared with 41 percent who prefer Obama. In the same poll taken last month, Obama led among independents, 47 percent to 37 percent.

Ohio, which is now also 46-44 Obama:

Obama had a 6 percentage-point lead in the same poll taken last month. Both men and women are closely split in their support of either candidate. When it comes to their pick for first lady, respondents preferred Cindy McCain to Michelle Obama by 6 points, 33 percent to 27 percent.

Pennsylvania, 49-42 Obama:

Obama's lead in the state has narrowed. The same poll taken last month showed him ahead of McCain, 52 percent to 40 percent. Women favor the Democrat by 11 points, 50 percent to 39 percent. Obama has a 4-point lead among men.

All right, that's progress.  But please note that McCain is still behind in these three states.  I suspect he'll pull ahead in Florida, Pennsylvania will be extremely tough, and Ohio might be a tossup until election day, as it was last time.

But movement is in the right direction.  McCain might pull this out, in spite of a weak campaign.  I trust it won't stay weak.

July 31, 2008.      Permalink          

THURSDAY:  JULY 31,  2008

Posted at 7:20 a.m. ET

SMEAR

The race card is being played against John McCain, and Obama himself is playing it.  It's not shocking.  It was played against Hillary Clinton in the primaries.  It's going to be used, possibly to great effect, as election day approaches.  We will be told, in no uncertain terms, that the election is a "test" of our decency.  Unless we elect Obama, we are indecent.  The New York Times has already suggested just that.

Now Obama goes after his opponent, as Jake Tapper of ABC reports:

"And so the only way they figure they’re going to win this election is if they make you scared of me. So what they’re saying is, ‘Well, we know we’re not very good but you can’t risk electing Obama. You know, he’s new, he’s... doesn’t look like the other presidents on the currency, you know, he’s got a, he’s got a funny name.'

"I mean, that’s basically the argument -- he’s too risky," Obama said, per ABC News' Sunlen Miller.

And...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but does it not seem as if Obama just said McCain and his campaign -- presumably the "they" in this construct -- are saying that Obama shouldn't be elected because he's a risk because he's black and has a foreign-sounding name?

I'd say so.

Then in Union, Mo., this evening, Obama seemed to specifically accuse McCain and the GOP of peddling racism and xenophobia...

..."But, since they don’t have any new ideas the only strategy they’ve got in this election is to try to scare you about me. They’re going to try to say that I’m a risky guy, they’re going to try to say, 'Well, you know, he’s got a funny name and he doesn’t look like all the presidents on the dollar bills and the five dollar bills and, and they’re going to send out nasty emails..."

...There's a lot of racist xenophobic crap out there. But not only has McCain not peddled any of it, he's condemned it.

Back in February, McCain apologized for some questionable comments made by a local radio host. In April, he condemned the North Carolina Republican Party's ad featuring images of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Tapper says he's seen racism in this campaign - "more from Democrats than Republicans, at this point, I might add" - but says:

What I have not seen is it come from McCain or his campaign in such a way to merit the language Obama used today. Pretty inflammatory.

And it will get worse.  Some of the people behind Obama will stop at nothing to see him elected.  Some come from movements and groups where charges of racism, sexism, and the like, are standard fare, whether true or not - and I don't mean to belittle the seriousness of those hateful things. 

I'm concerned that some incident will be invented or imagined just before the election, or that some offhand comment by an obscure McCain staffer will become a big, controlled story in the last days of the campaign.  That's the way the game is played.  It's being played already.

July 31, 2008.      Permalink          

AL-QAEDA A MESS?

The Washington Post reports on developments in the war against terror that could turn out to be critically important.  Although a liberal paper, there are bursts of sanity at the Post, and I'm seeing them more and more, especially on the editorial page.  Amit R. Paley reports:

The leader of the Sunni insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq and several of his top lieutenants have recently left Iraq for Afghanistan, according to group leaders and Iraqi intelligence officials, a possible further sign of what Iraqi and U.S. officials call growing disarray and weakness in the organization.

U.S. officials say there are indications that al-Qaeda is diverting new recruits from going to Iraq, where its fighters have suffered dramatic setbacks, to going to Afghanistan and Pakistan, where they appear to be making gains.

Our forces defeated them in Iraq.  They can defeat them elsewhere.  Obama, despite his blunders in other matters, has spoken of the importance of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and has pledged to send more troops to that theatre.  We must hold him to it if, Heaven forbid, he moves into the White House.

An American intelligence officer is quoted as saying:

"We continue to wrestle with the question of whether this represents a strategic shift on the part of al-Qaida.  We do know that al-Qaida leaders will never give up entirely on Iraq, but they may in the future see Afghanistan or some other location yet to be determined as a place where their resources may be more effectively employed."

Do Americans understand that the conflict with radical Islam will be, to use Rumsfeld's term, "the long war"?  We understood the struggle during the Cold War, and eventually won it.  But a new generation of Americans is emerging, educated in the schools and colleges that were shaped by the sixties, and misinformed by a battalion of journalists for whom the concept of "victory" is frightening, and fills them with guilt. 

Great leaders seek to educate, inform and motivate their followers.  One of the sad things about the Bush administration is its poor information policies.  Its inarticulateness has led to a crisis in public support.  I have no doubt that President McCain would lead our fight effectively, and he has the ability to explain what is at stake.  But if it's President Obama, we will have in power a crowd that seems to regard America, not terrorism, as the problem.

Our country has three months to make one of the most important electoral decisions it will ever make.

July 31, 2008.      Permalink