SECOND EVENING UPDATE:  JULY 11,  2008

Posted at 8:25 p.m. ET

NEWSWEEK POLL

A new Newsweek poll released late today shows a 12-point drop for Obama in the last month. Obama now leads McCain, according to this poll, by only three points.

If you read the story, though, you learn why experienced heads, such as a wise news executive who wrote me recently, caution about letting pollsters interpret their own results.  Newsweek tries to explain that its last poll may have been a bit off, although, hey, maybe it wasn't. 

At any rate, Newsweek's results are now more in line with what we've been seeing in tracking polls every day.

By the way, yesterday Newsweek's online service ran the following headline:

POLL:  OBAMA EXTENDS NATIONAL LEAD OVER McCAIN  

It was another poll.  Who'll be explaining that one?

Relax.  It's early.  The conventions haven't even been held.

But everyone knows Dewey will defeat Truman.

July 11, 2008.      Permalink          

FIRST EVENING UPDATE:  JULY 11,  2008

Posted at 7:48 p.m. ET

FACE THE TRUTH!

Stop complaining, you miserable American imperialist capitalist warmongering SUV drivers! 

Start showing some maturity, you childlike gas-guzzling road warriors, with your big Navy and Air Force!

And while you're at it, turn down the air conditioners in your vans and open the windows.  Smell the fresh air, yanks!

Oh, this is almost too much.

From where is this coming?  It's coming, naturally, from The Los Angeles Times, which helpfully sends us on a major guilt trip by reporting, in meticulous detail, how lucky we are to be paying $4.50 for a gallon of energy.  And that's "regular," mind you!

It seems the rest of the world, long-suffering under our jackboot, is much worse off:

Honked off by Los Angeles pump prices? Cheer up. You could be commuting in Oslo, where gasoline costs $9.85 a gallon and filling up a Mini Cooper would set you back $130.

That's the priciest petrol on a list of world gas prices released Wednesday by Associates for International Research Inc., a Massachusetts relocation consulting firm that tracks the cost of living in dozens of countries.

In fact, at just over four bucks a gallon on average, U.S. gas is still cheap compared with much of the world.

"It's small consolation, I know," said Michael Shore, a senior manager at the consulting firm. But "the prices that [Americans] are paying now, Europeans have been paying for a long time."

And it's not just Europe. People all over the developing world are shelling out more for gas than Americans -- who are considerably wealthier. That includes drivers in the East African nation of Eritrea ($9.46 a gallon), Kenya ($5.94), Chile ($5.18), Nicaragua ($5.07), India ($4.94) and El Salvador ($4.70). In a more extensive study completed by the firm in March, consumers in nearly three-quarters of about 150 nations surveyed paid more for fuel than Americans did.

I feel so happy already.

Look, L.A. Times, if you're going to do a guilt story, at least compare apples to apples.  The U.S. is a huge, relatively new country.  Europe was laid out in the middle ages.  Distances in Europe are small, families are getting tiny, cars are mini.

In the U.S., whole sections were developed based on the automobile, and people driving to work.  In California, an 80-mile round-trip to the office is common.   Our energy needs are different.  Don't compare the price of gas here to what it is in third-world countries, where few people have cars and commuting is on a different level.

Some Americans drive so much every day, by necessity, that, if they were in Europe, they'd be driving across three borders.

We have to solve our problems based on the American economy, and the wants and needs of American families.  I am not that interested in the price of high-octane in Kenya.  And, for a long time to come, we'll have an oil-based economy, requiring dramatic increases in oil supply.

At least in the short term, the answers are clear.  Even Democratic leaders are starting to realize that we must drill and refine until new kinds of energy are perfected and introduced.  And that should be our reply to stories like this.

July 11, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON POST:  JULY 11,  2008

Posted at 2:03 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Our two standard trackers are up, and they go in opposite directions.  Gallup has Obama up six over McCain, and asserts that this is one of Obama's strongest leads in recent weeks.  Rasmussen has Obama up two, and asserts that the race may be tightening.  So go figure.

At least part of the polling was taken after the Jesse Jackson incident surfaced.  It's impossible to see if there was any effect.  In the last day or so voters have also been exposed to former Texas Senator Phil Gramm's breathtakingly stupid remark that Americans have become whiners and that the recession is in their heads.  Gramm is a close adviser to McCain, and this cannot help.  McCain said he disagreed with Gramm.  That is far from enough after Gramm's foolishness.  Gramm should be separated from the campaign.  His remark will be repeated over and over.  McCain's casual reaction reflects the slowness of his campaign.

Wake up, John, or prepare for those post-election interviews in which you'll explain why you lost.

July 11, 2008.      Permalink          

FRIDAY:  JULY 11,  2008

Posted at 7:20 a.m. ET

OBSERVATION

There is an old saying among Hollywood players:  "It's not enough for me to succeed.  Others must fail."  I believe variations of that can be found in other ethical, high-minded professions.

I thought of the line while watching the dustup between Jesse Jackson and Barack Obama.  Is it possible, we wonder, that Jesse Jackson actually wants Obama to fail, to lose, to be wiped off the political map?  Not only is it possible, it's probable.  A win by Obama would send Jackson into history as a high-profile civil-rights activist with a spotty record, and a man who failed to come even close to his party's presidential nomination.  A win by Obama would be a clear rejection of the Jackson style.

We must always remember, when reviewing the news, that we are dealing with people, not machines.  And people can be petty, conniving, childish and jealous.  And that's only the clergy.

One of my teachers at Columbia's Graduate School of Journalism, Penn Kimball, used to caution us about over-intellectualizing a news story - becoming so analytical that all the life, the humanity, is taken out.  It's a special danger for a generation of college-educated journalists who've been taught to examine things "critically," a word that has a vague meaning. 

It's possible that Jesse Jackson does believe, as he said in his caught-by-the-live-mike moment, that Obama speaks down to blacks.  Maybe he was sincere, if vulgar.  But I would suggest looking at the reality of a man whose time has past, realizes it, and sees himself eclipsed by a mixed-race graduate of the Harvard Law School who actually can attract white support.

In the 1930s, former New York governor and 1928 presidential candidate, Al Smith, turned against President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who'd succeeded him as governor, and went on to be elected president in 1932.  Publicly, Smith gave policy differences as the reason.  But those who were there recalled that Smith could not overcome his personal bitterness at failing to gain the office that Roosevelt won.

Always look at the human side, at the way people act.  Look at the way people around you act, at work, at school.  From what I've seen, they don't act very differently at the top of our society, whether in politics or show business.  There are things you'll learn in the school of hard knocks that you'll never learn in a class on social psychology. 

July 11, 2008.      Permalink          

THE APPLE DOESN'T FALL FAR...

Are you having problems with a child?  Too belligerent?  Too much of a hell raiser?  Well, how would you like to have this kid?

The son of terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden has appeared on a terrorist film
on the internet calling for Britain and its allies to be wiped out.

Hamza Bin Laden, 16, the youngest of the Saudi-born warlord’s 18 sons, is
claimed to be the author of a poem featured on an extremist website to mark
the third anniversary of the July 7 London bombings in which 52 people died.

In it, the boy dubbed the Crown Prince of Terror, called for an acceleration
in the “destruction” of America, Britain, France and Denmark, the latter
singled out for the publishing by its largest selling broadsheet of
caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed.

“Oh God, reward the fighters hitting the infidels and defectors. Oh God,
guide the youth of the Islamic nation and let them assist with the fighters’
plans,” he continued.

“God, be pleased with those who want to go for jihad - and blind those who
are watching and want to capture them.

“Grant victory to the Taliban over the gangs of infidels.”

There's a kid who ought to see the school guidance counselor.  Hmm.  Maybe not in his school.

Earlier this year, in a posthumous autobiography published after she was
assassinated in political rally in her home country, the former Pakistani
prime minister Benazir Bhutto named the teenager as the leader of one of a
number of gangs plotting to kill her.

The allegation, which Bhutto said was reported to her by President Pervez
Musharraf and a “friendly muslim government”, bolstered intelligence claims
that Hamza is being groomed as a future leader of Al-Qaeda.

I guess family tradition just has too strong an appeal.

By the way, when you go to that story, please note that it runs on a website devoted to exposing the risks of Sharia finance.  The link was sent to me by Hope Winters, a New York-based political activist who works tirelessly to unmask the impact that Sharia finance can have - in fact, is already having - in the United States.

Sharia finance, a subject I'll return to periodically, is the system requiring that certain investment funds controlled from the Middle East conform to Sharia law.  It sounds innocent enough - respect for local traditions and the like - but the implications are chilling.  Just think of one thing:  Sharia law requires that a percentage of profits go to "charities."  Today, some of those "charities" are clearly fronts for terrorist groups.

Sharia finance has infiltrated Wall Street.  It's possible that a fund in which you have a personal investment is helping to fuel America's enemies, and to suppress whole populations.  The story will grow.  We will cover it.

July 11, 2008.      Permalink          

ACTION COMING?

There's a remarkable story in today's Jerusalem Post.  I stress that this is unconfirmed, but The Post has a reasonable reputation for accuracy, and I think it's important to pass it on. Israeli aircraft, according to this report, are practicing at Iraqi airfields, only a few minutes' flying time to Iran:

Israel Air Force (IAF) war planes are practicing in Iraqi airspace and land in US airbases on the country as preparation for a potential strike on Iran, sources in the Iraqi Defense Ministry told a local news network, Friday.

The report, carried also by Iranian news outlets, claimed that recently massive nocturnal activity by IAF craft was noted in several American held airbases, including measures by the US army to increase security around the bases.

The Jerusalem Post could not confirm the veracity of the report.

According to the sources, former military officers in the Anbar province said IAF jets arrive during the night from Jordanian airspace, enter Iraq's airspace and land on a runway near the city of Hadita. The sources estimated the jets were practicing for a raid on Iran's nuclear sites.

The sources also said the American bases in Iraq might serve as a platform for the IAF from which to attack Iran. If Israeli warplanes will take off from Iraq, they can reach Bushehr in five minutes - a "record time," the sources said.

If the story is correct, and that is a big "if," the United States is clearly involved in planning for a possible Israeli raid on Iran's nuclear program, possibly with the acquiescence of Iraq. 

Then there's this, reported this morning in Haaretz, a competing Israeli paper:

Official representatives of an Arab country have hinted in meetings with Israeli officials that they would not oppose an Israeli military operation against Iran, sources in Jerusalem said this week.

According to the sources, the representatives of the Arab country said they are worried by Iran's growing influence in the region, primarily among Shi'ite communities in Arab states...

...Political sources in Israel told Haaretz that Iran's increasingly belligerent statements have worried the Gulf states, which want American protection against Tehran. "If this is how Iran threatens when it doesn't have nuclear weapons, what will it do when its nuclear program ripens?" one Israeli source said.

You can put those two stories together, but be careful.  A buildup of anonymously sourced stories presents a danger for any journalist or reader. 

But it sure is fascinating, no?

July 11, 2008.      Permalink