THURSDAY,  JULY 2,  2009

IRAN UPDATE - AT 7:26 P.M. ET:  From CNN:

Bloody attacks and midnight arrests, combined with a regime growing more technologically savvy, have begun stemming the flow of online information from dissidents in Iran, activists and human rights officials say.

Access to some social networking sites has been blocked in Iran since the June 12 election

Once emboldened by their ability to dodge the government and spread news about their protests to the world, many in the youth-driven protest movement, they say, are now scared of the consequences of getting caught.

"It's absolutely chilling," said Drewery Dyke, a member of human rights group Amnesty International's Iran team. "The level of fear that has permeated society now, in terms of this issue, is palpable. It's striking."

COMMENT:  The dissent will not end, although it may take a different form.  Still to be explained - how President Obama intends to negotiate with the Iranian regime over nuclear weapons, while that regime beats down its people, and has already said it will demand full nuclear freedom.  The speaking skills that win the Iowa caucuses are not the same as those that defeat the Iranian fascists.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

PRESIDENTIAL POLL - AT 6:55 P.M. ET:  The Rasmussen daily tracker continues to have bad news for the White House.  Normally, Mr. Obama has sprung back after a decline, but there seems very little spring this time:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows that 33% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-five percent (35%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. This is the third straight day the Approval Index has been below zero.

Ras also reports that overall approval of the president is down to 53%, in contrast to 46% disapproving.  The general trend since inauguration has been downward, although slowly.  

July 2, 2009   Permalink

A GRIM EMPLOYMENT PICTURE - AT 9:26 A.M. ET:  Job losses last month were greater than expected, as The New York Times just reported:

The pace of job losses quickened in June after slowing just a month earlier, casting a shadow over the Obama administration’s attempts to stanch months of stark declines in the labor market.

The American economy shed 467,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent, its highest level in 26 years, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Job losses were widespread among the construction, manufacturing and business and professional services sectors.

COMMENT:  We may be entering a new phase of the economic turndown - what I call the "post optimism" phase.  There have been a number of optimistic statements coming out of the administration in the last few months, none of which appear to have been valid.  In a way, it's very cruel to people.  The economic picture is still very grim.

If optimism fades, the nation can turn bitter, and that can have profound political consequences.  Dick Morris has predicted that the crunch for Obama will come about September.  We don't make predictions here, but I wouldn't be shocked if Morris were right.

July 2, 2009   Permalink  

A MATTER OF TIME - AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  Some politicians just don't know when to shut up.  There was actually some sympathy, misplaced, for South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford after he admitted an affair with a woman down Argentine way.  But he couldn't stop talking, and now he is being walked slowly, by his own party, to the execution chamber:

Gov. Mark Sanford’s long and emotional interview with The Associated Press Tuesday appears to have been the final straw for South Carolina’s Republican establishment, much of which is now actively seeking his resignation.

While Sanford seemed to have weathered the storm in the brutal days immediately following his admission of an affair with an Argentine woman, his support has cratered in the wake of the AP interview in which he talked of his “tragic” and “forbidden” love for his “soul mate” and admitted to having “crossed lines” with a handful of other women.

Fourteen GOP state senators — more than half the Senate Republican caucus — have already called for Sanford’s resignation, joining a list that, as of Wednesday afternoon, included 11 Republican members of the state House and six of the state's biggest newspapers.

COMMENT:  It's hard to believe that Sanford can hold out.  He probably wishes he were a Democrat.  In that party his actions would be considered "a lifestyle choice."

The faster he's gone, the better.  The GOP needs to keep the focus on the issues, and the shaping of its 2010 campaign.  Unhinged governors are not good for the image.

July 2, 2009   Permalink 

NORTH KOREA SHOOTS AGAIN - AT 8:31 A.M. ET:  The North Koreans, thus far essentially unpunished for their nuclear and missile tests during the first months of the age of Obama, have provoked again: 

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea test-fired two short-range missiles Thursday, South Korea's Defense Ministry said, a move that aggravates the already high tensions following Pyongyang's recent nuclear test and U.N. sanctions imposed as punishment.

The missiles were fired from the eastern coastal city of Wonsan on Thursday afternoon, a ministry official said on condition of anonymity citing department policy. He did not say what types of missiles were launched, but the Yonhap news agency said they were ground-to-ship missiles.

North Korea had earlier called for a no-sail zone in waters off its east coast through July 10 for military drills. That designation was viewed as a prelude to such missile tests.

The new launches are expected to exacerbate the tensions running high since Pyongyang's May 25 underground nuclear test and a series of missile firings. The U.N. Security Council adopted a tough sanctions resolution last month to punish the communist regime.

COMMENT:  The story's reference to "tough" U.N. sanctions is a stretch.  They're tough only if they work.  So far, the evidence on that is thin.

We look forward to a White House response, if anyone is interested.  Thus far, North Korea seems mighty unimpressed with President Obama.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

THE NATION'S DISGRACE - AT 8:14 A.M. ET:  We deal with this extensively at the current Angel's Corner, published last night.  The president is disgracing our country with his behavior on Honduras, as the Washington Times points out in today's editorial.  It's good to see some in the media breaking from the pack and doing a bit of independent shouting: 

Dictators and demagogues can rest easy on President Obama's watch. When thousands of Iranians flooded the streets of Tehran protesting a rigged election and were beaten and shot down by pro-regime thugs, the president bided his time before making a series of noncommittal statements. He seemed to hope it would all just go away. However, when a socialist demagogue was ejected unceremoniously from Honduras on Sunday by his own government for trying to establish a presidency for life, Mr. Obama instantly sprang to his defense.

Boy, does that ever nail it.  I believe Honduras will be one of those defining issues in the Obama presidency.  The facts can't be forever suppressed.

In throwing its unqualified support to Mr. Zelaya, the Obama administration is enabling America's strategic foes. This shortsightedness is truly breathtaking and underscores the incoherence of the administration's foreign policy. Smart power? We think not.

Ouch.  The knife goes in.  Finally...

Whatever the outcome of the crisis in Honduras, Mr. Obama has failed another key test of international leadership. The United States is in an increasingly perilous position in Latin America and needs solid allies to stem the anti-American tide being led by Venezuela. Mr. Obama should think twice before rushing to stand beside the likes of dictators such as Mr. Chavez and Cuba's Fidel Castro. They support Mr. Zelaya because he is a fellow traveler, a socialist in good standing, a member of their anti-gringo alliance. There's no reason for America to support him.

The failing Obama presidency.  Demonstrated.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

THE CITIZEN AS REPORTER - AT 7:48 A.M. ET:  We're seeing more citizen journalism, and some of it turns out to be very good.  Reader Hunter Schultz alerts us to an excellent report from Honduras.  Indeed, while I cannot personally vouch for every statement, the overall attention to detail and narrative in this report are of the highest professional calibre.  One gem:

The Supreme Court voted to remove Zelaya. The Congress decided to remove Zelaya. The Attorney General stated many times that Zelaya was committing illegal acts and in fact committing treason. The military determined that the poll was illegal and that their responsibility was to uphold the constitution as opposed to supporting the president.

Early Sunday morning, about 6am, the military went to the president’s house and removed him from the building. He was put on a plane to Costa Rica. This was done to enforce the ruling from the Supreme Court.

Will someone inform President Obama?  A short note will do.

Here's another quote.  The writer is referring to a referendum, declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, that President Mel Zelaya tried to hold anyway:

It’s been said all over the press that Mel was arrested in his pajamas. I personally don’t believe that. In an hour he would have been at some polling place to vote and also to motivate those that showed up. This was the biggest day of his life. I’d be amazed if he slept at all – I know I wouldn’t be able to. There was one report that Mel was actually in suit pants and a crisply ironed white shirt when he was arrested and he asked to change into other clothes. Quite frankly, I see this as more likely.

See what I mean by attention to detail?

If there's one piece you read today, read this one.

July 2, 2009   Permalink

WEDNESDAY,  JULY 1,  2009

LET'S NOT FORGET - AT 9:45 P.M. ET:  The Iranian freedom fighters are still fighting, not that the White House seems to care.  The president appears far more concerned that his leftist pal has been ousted (properly and legally) from the presidency of Honduras.  Now that's a crisis!  But in Iran:

TEHRAN, July 1 -- Three opposition leaders, including a former president, openly defied Iran's top political and religious authorities Wednesday, vowing to resist a government they have deemed illegitimate after official certification of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's reelection.

Their defiance in the face of harsh official denunciations and threats of arrest and prosecution appeared to dash the government's hopes of pressuring the opposition into accepting the disputed June 12 election.

Rather than dropping his complaints of extensive vote-rigging, leading opposition candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi took his fight to a new level Wednesday, risking arrest by urging followers to continue their protests. After formal certification of the election results Monday night by the Guardian Council, a top supervisory body of Shiite Muslim clerics and jurists, Iranian authorities warned that no further protests would be tolerated.

COMMENT:  The insurrection of 1979, which unfortunately brought the mullahs to power, took months to develop.  The Iran story is far from over.  How it develops, though, will be influenced by the behavior of the United States.  Will we send the right signals, or join the so-called "realist" school, and deal with the regime as if nothing has happened?  That kind of "realism" generally turns out to be unrealistic, but don't tell its advocates. 

July 1, 2009   Permalink

CAR SALES STILL GRIM - AT 7:50 P.M. ET:  From The New York Times:

DETROIT — June sales figures released Wednesday showed another difficult month for automakers, yet provided a hint that demand for new vehicles in the United States might finally be on the upswing.

The Ford Motor Company said its sales were down 11 percent from June 2008, the smallest decline any of the six largest automakers has reported since last summer.

In contrast, sales fell 34 percent for General Motors, which has temporarily shut many of its factories to pare inventories, and 42 percent for Chrysler, which closed all of its United States plants while it operated in bankruptcy protection. The plant closings cut sharply into both companies’ sales to car rental companies and other business customers.

(May sales for G.M. were down 30 percent from a year ago while Chrysler’s were down 47 percent.)

COMMENT:  Ford's results were actually "strong" compared with the rest of the industry, including foreign makers.  Ford, of course, was the only U.S. auto company that did not take federal bailout money.  Hmm.  I wonder...   No, no, no, mustn't have capitalist thoughts in the age of Obama.

But the overall picture is still grim.  The CEO of a major American company told me a few days ago that the earnings just aren't there to sustain a recovery right now.  People don't want to spend their money, an observation confirmed by a dramatic increase in the savings rate.

I don't think the story's slant that there are hints of an upswing is supported by the facts presented.  Declines in sales may be lower this month than in earlier months, but they're still declines.  You don't win anything by continuing to lose.

With all the stimulus talk, and even talk of a Stimulus II, the sequel, we don't seem to be getting out of the doldrums.

July 1, 2009   Permalink

GOP AHEAD IN GENERIC RASMUSSEN POLL - AT 7:28 P.M. ET:  It doesn't happen too often, but the Republicans have pulled slightly ahead of Democrats in the latest Rasmussen generic poll of preferences for Congress:

Republican congressional candidates rebounded this week and pulled ahead again of Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. The last time the GOP held a lead was in early May.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 41% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 39% would choose the Democratic candidate.

COMMENT:  The Republicans do have a great chance next year, a chance that will increase as Americans learn more and more about the zaniness of the Democratic program.  But the GOP has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  It's got to organize, and come up with an alternative, appealing program, as it did in 1994.

July 1, 2009   Permalink

AN AVERAGE AMERICAN SHOPPER - AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Talk about the imperial presidency.  First Lady Michelle Obama has been raising eyebrows recently with some moves toward acquiring more power.  Apparently, she wants her children to be dressed for the part when she gets there:

PARIS - Michelle Obama and her girls enjoyed a special Sunday shopping trip in Paris this month thanks to friends in high places who bent France's Sunday store-closing rules.

President Nicolas Sarkozy said Tuesday that calls were made to open a swanky children's boutique, usually closed by law on Sundays, where the First Lady and her two daughters perused racks of $200 summer dresses and $100 sweaters.

"Is it normal that on a Sunday when Madame Obama wants to go to the Paris shops with her daughters, that I have to make phone calls to have them open?" said Sarkozy, who is pushing to change the law.

"Who is going to explain to them why France is the only country where shops are closed on Sundays?"

It was actually the U.S. Embassy that arranged for opening of the shop, Bonpoint, a store spokeswoman said.

COMMENT:  Not good thinking.  We're in a deep recession.  It's bad enough that the first lady went on a separate plane to Paris, not Air Force One, costing taxpayers a mint.  The additional image of her shopping at an ultra-upscale store while Americans are hurting is doubly troubling. 

Someone should have a chat with Michelle.  She's riding high in the polls right now, but that could change.  She might call Nancy Reagan and ask Nancy about the public reaction when Mrs. Reagan tried to get more china for the White House.  Michelle is getting a little too high-toned.  As her husband's poll numbers decline, watch for hers to slip as well if she continues with these big-spender outings.

July 1, 2009   Permalink

AMERICANS SPLIT ON OBAMA HEALTH PLAN - AT 9:01 A.M. ET:  Despite some heavy pro-Obama spin in the reporting, a new CNN poll on Obamacare can't be great news for the president.  It shows only a bare majority - 51% - in favor of the Obama plan, with 45% opposed:

The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday morning indicates that most people worry that their health care costs would go up if the administration's proposals passed and only one in five thinks that his or her families would be better off under the Obama plan.

Fifty-one percent of people surveyed say they favor the president's health care plan, with 45 percent opposed.

COMMENT:  Those numbers are likely to worsen for the president as the debate proceeds and more Americans learn the shaky details of the plan.

This is an opportunity for Republicans.  They can't simply opposed the plan on the table.  They must come up with an alternative that will improve current conditions without breaking the bank.  They're not going to get far simply saying no. 

The poll does provide some ammunition for Republicans opposed to the president's proposals, however. Fifty-four percent of those surveyed say their medical insurance costs would increase if the Obama plan became law, with 17 percent saying their costs would decrease.

All right, GOP.  Let's see if you're alive.

July 1, 2009   Permalink

   
WHY OBAMA GOT "TOUGH" WITH IRAN - AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  Israeli Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion once said that Golda Meir was the best man in his Cabinet.  Obama might soon have to say the same about Hillary Clinton, if today's story in the Washington Times is accurate:

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton urged President Obama for two days to toughen his language on Iran before he did so, and then was surprised when he condemned Iran's crackdown on demonstrators last week, administration officials say.

At his June 23 news conference, Mr. Obama said he was "appalled and outraged" by Iranian behavior and "strongly condemned" the violence against anti-government demonstrators. Up until then, Mr. Obama and other administration officials had taken a softer line, expressing "deep concern" about the situation and calling on Iran to "respect the dignity of its own people."

Behind the scenes, the officials, who spoke on the condition that they not be named because they were discussing internal deliberations, said Mrs. Clinton had been advocating the stronger U.S. response, but the president resisted. When he finally took her advice, the aides said, he did so without informing her first.

COMMENT:  There may be some Clinton camp spin here, but the story appears to echo some other reporting.  Hillary, despite her many deficiencies, has a clearer head on foreign policy than does Obama, and a certain toughness, although she has been blind on Honduras (or just taking orders).

The fact that Obama blindsided Clinton when he decided to follow her advice, yet not alert her to his decision, doesn't surprise me.  It's the way Obama treats people.  He certainly wasn't going to acknowledge a major shift in tone and give someone else credit.  Obama, even when eloquent, lacks graciousness.  He wouldn't even acknowledge President Bush's contribution to victory in Iraq.  Make no mistake about it:  This administration is about The One. And with Michelle now making her well-publicized move toward greater power, it will be about The One and The Other One.

July 1, 2009   Permalink 

FUND RAISING AT THE WSJ - AT 8:07 A.M. ET:  The excellent John Fund of the Wall Street Journal continues that paper's fine reporting on Honduras.  Fund explains why the Obama administration is wrong (alas, again).

Many foreign observers are condemning the ouster of Honduran President Mel Zelaya, a supporter of Hugo Chavez, as a "military coup." But can it be a coup when the Honduran military acted on the orders of the nation's Supreme Court, the step was backed by the nation's attorney general, and the man replacing Mr. Zelaya and elected in emergency session by that nation's Congress is a member of the former president's own political party?

Some things for the collective White House - an appropriate term for the age of Obama - to think about.

Mr. Zelaya had sacked General Romeo Vasquez, head of the country's armed forces, after he refused to use his troops to provide logistical support for a referendum designed to let Mr. Zelaya escape the country's one-term limit on presidents. Both the referendum and the firing of the military chief have been declared illegal by the Honduran Supreme Court. Nonetheless, Mr. Zelaya intended yesterday to use ballots printed in Venezuela to conduct the vote anyway.

And this man is being treated like a hero by the Obamans.  As Fund points out, Zelaya is channeling Chavez's tactics.

No one likes to see a nation's military in the streets, especially in a continent with such painful memories of military rule. But Honduras is clearly a different situation. Members of Mr. Zelaya's own party in Congress voted last week to declare him unfit for his office. Given his refusal to leave, who else was going to enforce the orders of the nation's other branches of government?

Fund's piece is a fine example of what fact-based reporting can do.

July 1, 2009   Permalink

NORTH KOREA MYSTERY - AT 7:41 A.M. ET:   From AP:

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. officials said Tuesday that a North Korean ship has turned around and is headed back toward the north where it came from, after being tracked for more than a week by American Navy vessels on suspicion of carrying illegal weapons.

The move keeps the U.S. and the rest of the international community guessing: Where is the Kang Nam going? Does its cargo include materials banned by a new U.N. anti-proliferation resolution?

The ship left a North Korean port of Nampo on June 17 and is the first vessel monitored under U.N. sanctions that ban the regime from selling arms and nuclear-related material.

COMMENT:  Some liberal commentators are already billing this as a great victory for Obama, and even for the U.N.  Some caution is required.  As the article notes, we don't know where the ship is going.  Also, there are no permanent victories against North Korea, as the last ten years have proved. 

Other sources are reporting that the North Koreans, who'd been expected to launch a new missile over our July 4th weekend, don't seem ready to do so.  Again, it's a grain of salt moment.  They will eventually launch, when they're ready.  They always do, and have been especially defiant since our own Dear Leader took office.

July 1, 2009   Permalink