SATURDAY,  NOVEMBER 22, 2008

TODAY'S DATE

Posted at 8:22 p.m. ET

Today is November 22nd.  

That date may not have the resonance of December 7th, or, for the young generation, September 11th, but of course it is the date that President Kennedy was assassinated some 45 years ago. 

A vast amount has been written about that event, and President Kennedy himself.  I can add little.  But not enough has been written about the aftermath, particularly the treatment of Lyndon Johnson by the press, by the Kennedys, and by the northeast liberal establishment.  That is a subject worth mentioning.

One of the great myths about the sixties - one of many, many myths - is that Lyndon Johnson was hated because of the Vietnam War.  That is not quite correct.  Lyndon Johnson was hated from the moment he took the oath...because he wasn't Jack Kennedy.  He hadn't gone to the right schools, he wasn't eloquent, his wife didn't go to classical concerts, and, worst of all, he was from Texas.  Well, wait.  Maybe that wasn't worst of all.  Worst of all was the fact that he was an effective legislator, a dealmaker, and that didn't go down well with the pure-of-heart northeastern crowd, which had convinced themselves that the Kennedys were godlike and above mere politics.   

Johnson had always been resented by that clique, and his selection as Kennedy's running mate in 1960 had stunned them.  He wasn't "one of us."   He didn't talk like "us."  He was from south of Boston.  When Johnson became president upon Kennedy's murder, the clique loathed him, and gathered around Bobby Kennedy.  Johnson got very little credit for shepherding through the 1964 civil rights legislation that Jack Kennedy could probably not have gotten passed.  He got very little credit for anything. 

We recall these things because George W. Bush is despised by the same crowd that despised Johnson, and for the same reasons.  It's a cultural thing.  You must be a member of the club.  You can do business with a machete during the day, but, as long as you go to the Philharmonic at night, you're forgiven.  So now, as the Bush years reach their end, we might reflect on the treatment of Lyndon Johnson, and recognize that we've just seen it again.  It is hurtful to American politics, and hurtful to the country, but the practitioners of this socially acceptable form of hate never seem to care.

November 22, 2008.      Permalink          

MILITANT? - 7:51 P.M. ET:   From The New York Times:  PESHAWAR, Pakistan — A British militant who was a liaison to Al Qaeda and was a main suspect in the plot to blow up trans-Atlantic airliners in 2006 was killed Saturday in a missile strike by an American aircraft in northern Pakistan, senior Pakistani and American officials said.

COMMENT:  I've always been baffled by this term, "militant."  It's like saying, "Japanese militants attacked Pearl Harbor yesterday..."  What, precisely, does "militant" mean?  It's a euphemism, of course, for "terrorist."  I prefer the real thing.  At any rate, the raid was a success, for which we thank our militant military.

PAYOFF - 6:43 P.M. ET:  From The Politico:  Ellen Moran, executive director of EMILY’s List, was named White House communications director by President-elect Obama on Saturday.

Moran, a well-known grassroots organizer, has also managed statewide Democratic campaigns and managed the Wal-Mart corporate accountability campaign for the AFL-CIO.

EMILY's List, one of the most important Democratic constituency groups, says it is "dedicated to building a progressive America by electing Democratic pro-choice women to office."

COMMENT:  Major political payoff, but possibly a bad move.  The communications failures of the Bush White House show the importance of this position.  Appointing a partisan with narrow, leftist experience doesn't strike me as smart. 

SARAH, TAKE TWO

Posted at 10:16 a.m. ET

For those inclined to believe that Sarah Palin would disappear into the tundra after the election, there must be crushing disappointment.  It seems that the governor is in more demand now than ever.  She has a career ahead of her.  Tina Fey has a career ahead of her.  Everybody should really be happy.  The facts:

ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) - Oprah wants her, and so do Letterman and Leno. Fresh from her political defeat, Sarah Palin is juggling offers to write books, appear in films and sit on dozens of interview couches at a rate that would be astonishing for most Hollywood stars, let alone a first-term governor.

The failed Republican vice presidential candidate crunched state budget numbers this week in her 17th-floor office as tumbling oil prices hit Alaska's revenues. Meanwhile, her staff fielded television requests seeking the 44-year-old Palin for late-night banter and Sunday morning Washington policy.

Agents, including those from the William Morris Agency, have come knocking. There's even been an offer to host a TV show.

I used to be a William Morris client.  Sarah will have to get used to five-foot-five-inch men named Murray. 

"Tomorrow, Governor Palin could do an interview with any news media on the planet," said her spokesman, Bill McAllister. "Tomorrow, she could probably sign any one of a dozen book deals. She could start talking to people about a documentary or a movie on her life. That's the level we are at here."

"Barbara Walters called me. George Stephanopoulos called me," McAllister said. "I've had multiple conversations with producers for Oprah, Letterman, Leno and 'The Daily Show.'"

And there's more:

Palin is considering about 800 requests for appearances from December through 2009, with 75 percent coming from out of state. A year ago, just a sprinkle of requests came from beyond Alaska's borders. They range from invitations to speak at The Chief Executives' Club of Boston to attend a 5-year-old's birthday party, from a prayer breakfast in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to a business conference in Britain.

Michael Steele, the former Maryland lieutenant governor who wants to be the next chairman of the Republican National Committee, is seeking face time.

She has invitations to make appearances in 20 foreign countries, typically with all expenses paid, McAllister said. She has more than 200 requests for media interviews, again from around the globe.

Of course, it's legitimate to ask how many of these people will try to ambush her, and make her look bad.  But I suspect she's ready for that now.  She wasn't that ready in the first few weeks after McCain selected her.

The right book or movie deal could help Palin reintroduce herself to the nation, on terms she could dictate.

The book tour would be something to behold.  Of course, there are the party poopers:

"She has to deal with the perception that she bobbled her debut," said Claremont McKenna College political scientist John Pitney. "She needs to stay home for a while. If she wants a future in national politics, her No. 1 job is doing a good job as governor."

Hey, guy, she has an 80-percent approval rating. 

Sarah Palin is a political phenomenon.  We cannot and should not try to project how far she can go.  No doubt, and it must be admitted, part of the fascination is her good looks.  She's the most lookable major candidate we've had in years.

But there's also a fascination with her life story, which she now has a chance to tell in her own time, and in her own way, unencumbered by campaign staffs.

With Sarah emerging, and Hillary as secretary of state, we're in for juicy times.

November 22, 2008.      Permalink          

HILLARY - AGAIN

Posted at 9:09 a.m. ET

We've said before at Urgent Agenda that some of the best writing on American politics is done by British and Australian reporters.  The best of the best is Gerard Baker of The Times of London, who examines the whole Hillary as secretary of state thing.  The Brits must be astonished: 

When the man they call No Drama Obama met the Clinton Psychodrama in the Democratic primary campaign, it was bound to produce an epic for the ages. The iron self-discipline of the long-shot pretender proved just enough in the end to overcome the front-runner whose strengths were undermined by the self-indulgent incontinence characteristic of the Clinton political machine.

And...

From the Democratic convention, the word went out that Hillary - and even Bill - was finally resigned to a late life of public service, toiling diligently in the vineyard of President Obama's America, seeking nothing more than to serve the new leadership, loyally committed to a cause greater than their own self-advancement.

Ah, but wait...

And yet, here we are, a couple of weeks after that historic election, and once again all we are talking about is - the Clintons.

Yes.  And we're not talking about another guy:

One can only guess, by the way, what Joe Biden, the man who got the vice-presidential slot over Senator Clinton, in large part because of his foreign policy credentials, now thinks about the idea of sitting quietly in his vice-presidential office suite watching Mrs Clinton strut her global stuff on television.

They will keep him in the closet and away from microphones.  Hillary might ask him to arrange room service at foreign hotels.

What's more, it is not as though there was a great range of alternatives. John Kerry, first mooted for the job a while back, famously aloof and arrogant, might have proved a diplomatic disaster. Bill Richardson, the New Mexico Governor with the colourful past, was too risky for the global stage.

The Dem bench is not deep, especially where national security is concerned.

So what's the problem? The problem is that should Senator Clinton, by any chance, be looking to make her own mark in the next four years and subtly distinguish herself from the new president, there could hardly be a better perch from which to do it. Differences between the two during the primary campaign were sharpest over foreign policy. Mrs Clinton denounced Mr Obama's pledge to meet foreign dictators without preconditions and generally mocked his inexperience.

Hmm.  Yeah.  We see his point.  The Clinton leak machine could make clear where she differs with him, even as she carries out his instructions.  And - we're dreaming here - a Clinton resignation "on principle," just before, oh, 2012, could be devastating to Obama.

What most troubles Obama loyalists is that a Clinton nomination threatens to destroy a feature of the new president's politics that has been essential to Senator Obama's success: its cohesion and unity of purpose...

And that is the risk in the Clinton nomination, should it come. You don't even have to believe that Senator Clinton will actively try to undermine the president. She's surely a loyal Democrat and a patriotic American who in any case understands that active pursuit of her own cause would do her more harm than good.

The problem is that the Clintons really can't help it. For all their protean talents, for all their political and intellectual skills, they have an unrivalled knack for making politics into very personal theatre, an unerring capacity to turn any crisis into a drama, one in which they play all the central roles.

Finally...

For President Obama the opportunity in Secretary of State Clinton is knowing that his message to the rest of the world is in capable political hands. For No Drama Obama, the danger is that American foreign policy for the next four years becomes the gaudy stage on which the latest act in the engrossing saga of Clinton Agonistes is played out.

Yeah, no doubt about it.  This is theater.  The best show in town.  Can you just see inauguration day, in two months?  The networks will give as much attention to the Clintons as to the Obamas.  Hillary, as an appointed cabinet official, will probably be sitting right behind Obama as he rises to take the oath.  She'll know she's on TV, so she won't curse.  But I'll give anything I have to see the expression on her face, and I'll give more than I have to see the expressions when her eyes meet Michelle's.

Politics is occasionally fun, even when the other guys win.

November 22,  2008.      Permalink          

FRIDAY,  NOVEMBER 21,  2008

THE BAMWATCH

Posted at 10:48 p.m. ET

The president-elect clearly dodged a high-powered political bullet today by leaking the nomination of his presumed Treasury secretary, Tim Geithner.  Mr. Obama was beginning to face a firestorm of criticism that he wasn't serious enough about the economy.  That criticism should ease now.

Thus far his appointments are center-left.  That's fine, and the best we can hope for.  However, I still am uneasy with things I hear about his national-security policies, especially that he's taking advice from Brent Scowcroft, Bush 41's national security adviser.  Taking advice from Scowcroft is like taking advice from Zbig Brzezinski, Carter's national security adviser.  Brent and Zbig think alike, and often write columns together, as they did for today's Washington Post.  Their track record isn't encouraging.

But let's see, and give the president-elect a chance.  One thing that's particularly intriguing about the Hillary thing - assuming she does wind up at State - is that she and Obama have had fundamental disagreements about foreign policy.  Presumably, they've talked over exactly what Obama's plans are.  Presumably, also, he recognizes how embarrassing it would be if Clinton resigned her position in protest over policies that were too far to the left.  I say "presumably."  There are no guarantees here. 

The record shows that Hillary behaved herself when she entered the U.S. Senate in 2001.  She did not lord it over other senators, and took her place in the seniority chain.  She understands those same rules apply when she's secretary of state.  But we can only imagine what is going through her mind - the photos of her international "triumphs," and maybe a Nobel Peace Prize.  There is no doubt in my mind that she has her eye on 2016, when she'll be only 68, and a presidential candidate once more.  All this assumes, of course, that things go well, and that is a major assumption.

There might also be intermediate steps for Clinton.  She might become governor of New York.  She might have her eye on the secretary generalship of the UN.  There has been talk of a Supreme Court appointment, but I can't see it.  Her legal qualifications are thin.  She could be vice president in a second Obama term, if Biden fades away, or is made to fade away. 

Isn't it something - we're talking more about Clinton than Obama.  But that is the risk Obama is now taking.

November 21, 2008.        Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:21 P.M. ET:  Bill Richardson, governor of New Mexico, has apparently been selected to be secretary of commerce.  He can't do much harm in that position.  He had been under consideration for State before the Hillary thing happened.  In addition, Larry Summers, who really is one of the brightest men around, is said to be in line for national economic adviser.   

COMMENT:   The question arises:  What role will there be in the new administration for Joe Biden, other than letting him take his oath?  The man has, Soviet style, essentially disappeared. 

BULLETIN AT 4:28 P.M. ET:   WASHINGTON (AP) -- President-elect Barack Obama is likely to name Tim Geithner, president of the New York Federal reserve, as Treasury Secretary in a time of intense economic turmoil as he rounds out the upper echelon of his Cabinet, an official close to the incoming chief executive said Friday.

COMMENT:  A disappointment.  The clear choice is the brilliant Larry Summers, who held the post under Clinton.  But Summers ran afoul of radical feminist groups when he was president of Harvard, and I suspect they derailed him.  These are the same groups, of course, that are silent about the oppression of Muslim women.  Mustn't upset the multiculturalists.

UPDATE AT 4:25 P.M. ET:  The Dow soared almost 500 points and did close over 8000, at 8046.

NOTE AT 3:46 P.M. ET:  One of our loyal readers, and a close adviser who has contributed much to Urgent Agenda, asks the meaning of the term "Bamwatch," which I use to headline evaluations of the Obama transition.  It comes from "Bam," which some writers use as shorthand for Obama.  Normally, presidential shorthand calls for initials - FDR, JFK.  However, initials haven't always caught on.  Rarely did I see Reagan referred to as RWR, or Clinton called WJC.  In Obama's case there is the little problem of the middle name, Hussein, which has vanished from many journalists' vocabulary.  Thus, Bam, and thus Bamwatch.

UPDATE AT 3:43 P.M. ET:  The Dow is up 361, with 17 minutes to go.  One of these irrational end-of-week rallies.  It does nothing to change the fundamentals, to the extent that economic fundamentals still drive this market.

UPDATE AT 3:22 P.M. ET:  The Dow is up 208, about 38 minutes before the close.

BULLETIN AT 3:11 P.M. ET:   From The New York Times:   Hillary Rodham Clinton has decided to give up her Senate seat and accept the position of secretary of state, making her the public face around the world for the administration of the man who beat her for the Democratic presidential nomination, two confidants said Friday.

COMMENT:  We assume The Times, or its copy editors, knows how to spell, so please notice the use of "confidants," the male spelling, rather than the feminine "confidantes."  So, presumably, it was two men who spilled the beans.  Also, the story goes on to report "additional discussion" between Obama and Clinton since their now-famous meeting in Chicago.  I'd be willing to guess that Obama had to spell out some details of his foreign policy.  She is far more hawkish than Obama has claimed to be. 

A side note:  I was struck by the term "the man who beat her" in the quote above.  In polite company we usually say, "the man who defeated her."  Hmm. 

UPDATE AT 11:03 A.M. ET:  Well, that didn't last long.  The Dow is down 33.

UPDATE AT 9:39 A.M. ET:  The Dow opened up 160.

UPDATE AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Nov. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the mortgage-finance companies seized by the U.S. government, will suspend foreclosures and evictions over the holidays.

COMMENT:  Real troupers.  Hey, so what if we screwed up the entire economy.  Here's a Christmas break.  (Thanks to Bruce Goldman for alerting me to the misspelling of "troupers.") 

UPDATE AT 8:55 A.M. ET:  Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- President-Elect Barack Obama‘s transition team is exploring a swift, prepackaged bankruptcy for automakers as a possible solution to the industry’s financial crisis, according to a person familiar with the matter.

COMMENT:  Did you ever think you'd see the headline GM BELLY UP?  It may be a wise solution, but Newt asked a few nights ago, "Who would buy a car from a bankrupt company?"  The psychological factor here could be troubling.

UPDATE AT 8:31 A.M. ET:   From Reuters:  NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The New York Times Co slashed its dividend by almost three-quarters and said it would cut spending and reevaluate its assets to cope with a slump in advertising revenue that is gouging U.S. newspaper publishers.

COMMENT:  Just a slump in ads?  How about the little problem of putting out a product in which people have lost confidence?  Address that and both readers and advertisers will beat a path to your door.

UPDATE AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  From the Washington Post:  Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is on track to be nominated for secretary of state in the Obama administration, transition aides said on Thursday night.

COMMENT:  And other sources say that she's hesitating.  We'll know right after the next commercial for Colgate toothpaste. 

THE IMPORTANCE OF FAILURE

Posted at 8:08 a.m. ET

In the midst of all the economic chaos, leave it to Victor Davis Hanson to provide some needed perspective, not about numbers, but about culture and ethics.  Here he provides some common sense about failure, and its uses, starting with what many of us were taught as children:

The common theme was that some sort of failure in life is inevitable. It is a wake-up call for reflection -- and should prompt needed change. Our character is not just built from success, but during setbacks as well.

But now Americans seem to think such folk wisdom is obsolete. First came the $700 billion bailout of the financial industry. Such a one-time federal guarantee was perhaps necessary to restore liquidity for the failed banking system, but it sent a terrible message.

And that message:

Those who caused the mess -- greedy traders, corrupt politicians, incompetent CEOs and gullible stockbrokers -- got a collective reprieve.

True.  Do we remember any of the names?  Can we place the faces?  If some of the worst culprits walked down our street, would we recognize them? 

The teetering U.S. auto industry is now next in line for a multi-billion-dollar federal bailout. But for decades, Detroit made gas-guzzling automobiles that the public believed were not as well built as the Japanese competition -- despite being made by unionized workers who were paid nearly twice as much as those somehow building better cars. Will overpaid auto executives and workers worry about the consequences of their ongoing mistakes when the government has assured them that failing is not an option?

At least we're seeing some resistance.  Many Americans aren't buying the fast hustle as quickly as some politicians are.

California is also on the edge.  They spend, and spend.

But what they see in return are bloated bureaucracies, poor schools, congested highways and dysfunctional community hospitals. With a bailout, California's governor and legislators won't worry too much that their constituents are some of the most taxed and least served of any in America.

And...

Universities raise tuition rates that exceed the rate of inflation. But in our brave, new no-failure world, why worry when more promised federal-guaranteed student loans and credits will ensure steady paying enrollment? With guaranteed federal money, why be concerned that colleges and universities are overstaffed with administrators, replete with centers and programs that have nothing to do with undergraduate education, and erecting Las Vegas-like student unions and colossal recreation centers?

Ah, a delicate nerve.  When are we finally going to look at colleges with a cold eye, and realize that they're businesses?

Americans are creating a therapeutic society in which none of us need fail. No one loses in T-ball anymore. Schools honor a dozen valedictorians. In universities, a "C" passing grade is now the understood kinder and gentler version of the old and now-rare "F."

Our culture forgot that there was once a utility in failure. Failing reminded us of what works and what doesn't -- and how we must learn to avoid the latter. Instead, in our new economic purgatory, no firm, company, state, city or individual ever quite goes to financial heaven or hell. A Bear Stearns or Chrysler neither succeeds nor fails but just sort of endlessly exists.

Good thoughts to ponder on the weekend.  Charles Kettering, of the once-successful General Motors, used to say that there's no such thing as failure.  There's only experience.  Another good thought.

November 21, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:26 A.M. ET:  TOKYO (AP) -- Honda Motor Corp. said Friday it will cut production in Japan and Europe by 61,000 vehicles, as it continues to grapple with slowing global demand.  The latest cut means Japan's second-largest automaker will reduce annual production by more than 140,000 vehicles worldwide.

COMMENT:  But no cries of anguish, no demand for a bailout.  When you've done it right, you can absorb losses. 

UPDATE AT 7:12 A.M. ET:   From the Washington Times:  President-elect Barack Obama is staying out of the congressional fight over bailing out the U.S. auto industry, despite his previous statements urging help for Detroit's struggling Big Three, a leading Senate Democrat said Wednesday.

"I can tell you flat out there will be no endorsement [by Mr. Obama] prior to January 20," said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut a day after his committee heard a combined appeal for billions of dollars in taxpayer help from the heads of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co, and Chrysler LLC.

COMMENT:  Increasingly, in TV spots and on the internet, there is a muttering of dissatisfaction with Obama, that he should be making the economy his priority and appointing a Treasury secretary to reassure the people and the markets.  Not a good show so far.

UPDATE AT 6:52 A.M. ET:  The foreign markets stabilized overnight.  That may (or may not) portend a better day on Wall Street, especially with profit takers hanging around.  Let's see.  The overall downward trend, and the psychological factors that lead to recessions, are plainly there.