SUNDAY,  NOVEMBER 30,  2008

NEWS NOTE AT 11:58 P.M. ET:  Some readers may have noticed that we've been a little light in posting this weekend.   It was intentional.  Holiday weekends are notoriously thin on news, barring something entirely unexpected.  Of course, we dealt in detail with Mumbai, and will continue to do so, but American news has been less than compelling.  The AP report has not been significantly updated in hours. 

The situation might change tomorrow morning with the naming of the president-elect's national-security team.  It will certainly change if Mumbai is followed by other like events, or by a convulsion on the Indian subcontinent.  Mr. Obama can expect an eventful first year.

THIS JUST IN - AT 4:27 P.M. ET:   (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy voodoo dolls can still be sold by a publisher as long as they come with a warning that sticking pins in the toy is an affront to his dignity, a Paris court ruled today.  The court rejected Sarkozy’s appeal to block the sale of the dolls. It awarded him 1 euro ($1.27) and required the warning labels be added to the packaging in conspicuous block lettering.

COMMENT:  I was thinking of a line of Hillary Clinton voodoo dolls.  I guess I'll need the label for the French version. 

THE BOTTOM LINE - AT 2:43 P.M. ET:  Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. holiday retail sales increased 3 percent yesterday from a year earlier, the smallest gain for a “Black Friday” in three years, research firm ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said.  Sales rose to $10.6 billion, the Chicago-based company said in a statement. The increase was the smallest since a decline of 0.9 percent in 2005 and compares with a jump of 8.3 percent last year.

COMMENT:  The key, of course, is how much profit is involved here.  With stores cutting prices dramatically, even an increase in sales may not tell the story.  However, don't despair.  The economy will, after Obama is inaugurated (check one) 1) start to race again on a burst of optimism; 2) forge ahead with confidence in the new team; 3) show signs of life as Americans look to a new day.

None of this will be true, but that's what we'll be told.  The media got plenty of practice during the campaign.

THE CLINTON WATCH BEGINS...AGAIN - AT 10:06 A.M. ET:  WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President-elect Barack Obama is planning to nominate at least three key members of his national security team at an event in Chicago, Illinois, on Monday, including Sen. Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, according to two Democratic officials.

COMMENT:  Without doubt, Clinton is the most fascinating cabinet pick since Nixon chose Henry Kissinger for State.  Bets are starting on how long Clinton will last.  What happens if she's ordered to take positions vastly different from her beliefs - or at least the beliefs she claimed when she was senator from New York?  What if there's a feud at the political summit between Clinton and Obama?  Oh, the juiciness of it all.

THE IRAN GAME

Posted at 9:54 a.m. ET

The Mumbai attack inevitably makes us think of other sources of terror, and worse than terror, around the world.  The name Iran comes up.  The mad mullahs haven't been too prominent in the news recently, but that will certainly change once Mr. Obama takes office and the issue of Iran's nuclear program comes front and center again.

But there is something else that gets our attention regarding Iran, and that is its disturbing relationship with Germany.  When Germany was reunified after the end of the Cold War - or at least the pause in the Cold War - some wondered out loud whether reunification was a good idea.  Would Germany become Germany again, returning to its bad old ways?  The answer, sadly, is that it increasingly looks that way.  No, there isn't a Hitler on the horizon, and the German army isn't massing on the French border.  But Germany has become increasingly anti-American and indifferent to Western causes.  The Wall Street Journal reports on its disturbingly close relationship with Iran, and the amorality behind it:

The recent U.N. report that Iran may have enough nuclear material to build an atomic bomb is causing concern in Germany -- not over an Islamic bomb, but over the risk of tougher U.N. sanctions.

As we said, amorality.

The German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce sponsored a seminar this week in Hamburg entitled "Iran Sanctions -- Practical Consequences for German Companies." The session was designed to help firms in "these difficult times" -- a reference to U.N. trade sanctions, not the global economy.

Our great ally.  Are you glad we rebuilt them after World War II?

As Europe's largest exporter to Iran, Germany has unique leverage over the regime. But Berlin refuses to use it. German exports to Iran are up 14.1% in the first seven months of this year. The Islamic Republic is so popular in Germany that another group, Management Circle, is planning a two-day crash course next month in Frankfurt. The program lists seven reasons for doing business with Iran, including "traditional good economic and political relations with Germany."

There was a time when German governments would feel an obligation to distance themselves from regimes that were anti-American or anti-Semitic.  Apparently, that is no longer the case, even though German Chancellor Angela Merkel is herself pro-American.

Readers may recall that Barack Obama assailed President Bush for not doing more diplomatically to contain Iran, including more vigorous sanctions. Job one on that score for Mr. Obama would seem to be persuading his many admirers in Germany. Good luck.

The question is whether Obama is willing to risk unpopularity in Germany to get our point across.  German relations with Iran, which apparently include the sale of scientific and technical equipment, are only expected to grow.

This situation has been deteriorating for some time.  There are German troops "assisting" us in Afghanistan, but they're not allowed to fight, and even their commander said this past week that their mission is a failure.

It may be time for the American people to vote with their dollars and bypass those German products until the Fatherland comes around and recognizes that it must contribute substantively to Western defense, not just take.

November 30, 2008.      Permalink          

MUMBAI UPDATE AT 8:48 A.M. ET:  Most of the "news" out of Mumbai this morning is actually speculation.  Apparently, only one of the ten attackers survived.  He is being questioned by Indian police and is said to be "talking."  Of course, we don't know if he's saying anything accurate.

The key question to emerge is whether Pakistan or Pakistanis are directly involved.  There have been Indian government statements claiming Pakistani involvement, but no smoking gun has thus far been produced.  Proof of Pakistani complicity, whether by the government or individual groups, could touch off armed clashes between India and Pakistan, something Washington doesn't need right now, as U.S. forces try to calm the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.

A final casualty toll has not been announced.  Newspapers vary in their report on the death count thus far, ranging from about 180 to about 195.  But authorities have cautioned that more bodies might be discovered inside the Taj hotel. 

SATURDAY,  NOVEMBER 29,  2008

MUMBAI CAUTION - 3:42 P.M. ET:  The Times of India is reporting that the terrorists had local help in planning the attacks.  However, a caution:  Much of the information coming out of India is sketchy, contradictory, and based on unnamed sources.  And the Indian officials releasing information have their own agendas, including political survival.  So be careful.

BACK TO BASICS II - From AFP:  Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein al-Shahristani said on Friday that 80 dollars a barrel is a "reasonable" price for oil and that his country would support any OPEC decision to cut output. "A reasonable price for oil is 80 dollars a barrel," said Shahristani on arrival in Cairo to attend a consultative meeting by the OPEC cartel to study slumping crude prices.

COMMENT:  Not exactly an expression of thanks to us.  Shut this man up.

BACK TO BASICS - AT 3:23 P.M. ET:  CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Saudi Arabia's king says the price of oil should be $75 a barrel, much higher than it is now, but his oil minister indicated Saturday that no measures will likely be taken until OPEC meets again next month.  Saudi Oil Minister Ali Naimi said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will "do what needs to be done" to shore up falling oil prices when the cartel meets Dec. 17 in Algeria.

COMMENT:  We'd like to keep the price of oil where it is, but $75 is much better than the $150 that we were envisioning earlier this year. 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT, SHE'S BAACK - AT 10:17 A.M. ET:  From Fox News:  A former adviser to Barack Obama's presidential campaign who once called Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton a "monster" is now working on the transition team for the agency that Clinton may lead.  State Department officials said Friday that Samantha Power is among foreign policy experts the president-elect's office selected to help the incoming administration prepare for Clinton's anticipated nomination as secretary of state.

MORE FROM RENEE, AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Renee Nielsen, who has given us such exceptional reports, has another this morning (evening in Mumbai).  She was going to take one of her children to a birthday party.  Renee reports:

The birthday party for a classmate that I'd decided to take my five-year-old to, at the Taj Lands End, got cancelled. The mother of the birthday girl apparently had many friends who were killed down at the Oberoi and Taj. How horrible.

The papers today have started to list who was killed. I wrote before that it's not just tourists who frequent these hotels, but also regular, wealthy Indians: business owners, lawyers, actors, etc. The American school sent out an announcement that they did have one set of parents killed, leaving three children orphaned. No word on nationality just yet.  (The parents were not necessarily American.)

Anecdotally, we met a guy today at the club who works for Singapore Airlines. They've been moving out bodies on their airline. One 28-year-old Thai woman was killed and SA carried her body back to Thailand. One of this man's employees was shot in the knee at the Taj.

The terrorists apparently knew the layout of the Taj, including the rooms where the closed-circuit TV cameras were located.

There is a chef who works with the Taj - so when he heard what was going on, he rushed down there. He led some of the commandos in and was taking them to this hidden room, and the terrorists were already there! There was gunfire, and that's when one of the majors in the police was killed and he was shot. He went face down into some decorative water feature, which was about a foot deep.  He thought he was going to drown because he was afraid to move, lest be shot again! 

There are rumors that two of the terrorists were employed by the Taj, which is how they knew the place so well.

The Mumbai Mirror got an eyewitness report that one group of patrons at the Oberoi was herded into some smaller area from the restaurant. From there, the terrorists decided to start separating the group - presumably the group was too big to move around, and they wanted just a few human shields. They then started mowing down the rest left behind. One guy was saved by being pushed down by another who was shot and fell hard on top of him. He may have been the only survivor of that entire group.

We're seeing lots of husbands and wives killed who were out dining together.  

The family of the Taj's general manager was staying across from the room that, it is being rumored, two of the terrorists had checked into . When fire broke out on that floor, the mother and their two sons were trapped in the bathroom of their room, and died in the fire.   The boys were something like 14 and 11, if I'm not mistaken.

One more odd thought to consider:  if foreigners were the really the specific targets, then why open fire at CST (formerly Victoria Station)?  The terrorists "just" killed locals: Hindus, Muslims, whoever. No tourists use that station. I would bet more Muslims have been murdered than foreigners by at least double or triple.

Something just doesn't add up.  

A lot doesn't add up.  The American news channels are now giving updates, but then going to other stories, as the siege is over.  But there are many questions about the motive behind these superbly planned attacks.  One network is reporting that Indian officials are now more emphatic than they were two days ago in blaming Pakistani elements.  We'll keep you informed.

MUMBAI UPDATE

Posted at 8:39 a.m. ET

It does appear that the siege in Mumbai is in fact over.  Given the chaos, we may not be satisfied that it's over until guests start returning to the Taj and the bar reopens.  There is actually very little new news out of Mumbai.  There will now be an investigation, there will be an impact on Indian politics, and possibly on India-Pakistan relations, if it's shown that the terrorists had a Pakistani connection.

We may never know the full truth.  A number of the terrorists are dead, and we have no idea what the survivors are saying.  There have been no ideological claims made.  If the terrorists had a cause they wished to publicize, they failed, because no cause is getting any free publicity, at least at this hour.

The American media has thus far acquitted itself well.  It has been primarily a television, rather than a press story.  The TV coverage was assisted to some degree by the fact that the attack occurred over a holiday weekend, when there was very little competition from other news sources.  The political class was eating, not talking.  Even CNN International performed well, although we were subjected last night to an "analysis" by the insufferable Christiane Amanpour, who announced that there were contradictions in the image of the event.  On the one hand, Amanpour informed us, we were told that the attack was well planned.  On the other hand, Amanpour intoned, there was indiscriminate shooting at a railroad station.

CNN needs to hire a private tutor for Amanpour, one who can whisper in her ear that there is no contradiction between a well planned attack and "indiscriminate" shooting.  If the purpose of the attack is to kill as many innocents as possible, there will be plenty of "indiscriminate" shooting.  (Actually, it's a spray of bullets, with a definite objective.)  CNN also graced us with Deepak Chopra, a self-help guy, who announced that it was all Washington's fault. 

But those were the exceptions.  Much of the reporting was responsible and restrained, and even most of the usual experts brought on the air were cautious in their observations.  There was, mercifully, very little talk of theoretical comparisons between President Bush and President-elect Obama on the terrorism question.

We await further details.  We're especially eager to hear more from Renee Nielsen, who has provided us with such remarkable insight.

November 29, 2008.      Permalink