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TUESDAY,  NOVEMBER 3,  2009

11:56 p.m.:  Fox News has called New York's 23rd Congressional District for Bill Owens, the Democrat, disappointing national conservatives who came into the district to boost the fortunes of insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman.  That's a Dem pickup.  Owens replaces Republican John McHugh, who resigned to become secretary of the Army.

11:28 p.m.:  A number of deceased Democrats who voted for Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial election have asked not to be bothered again.

11:22 p.m.:  At this hour it appears that Mary Norwood will not reach 50% in her bid to become the next mayor of Atlanta, and will face a runoff.  The significance here is that Norwood, if she hits the magic number, would be the first white mayor of Atlanta in 36 years.  She has important African-American endorsements, but the African-American vote was split between two of Norwood's opponents.  If Norwood is forced into a runoff, as now seems likely, she will face one black opponent, and the contest will take on clear racial overtones, which is unfortunate. 

11:01 p.m.:  The big Republican disappointment tonight may well come in New York's 23rd Congressional District, where Democrat Bill Owens is maintaining a four-point lead over insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman.  Owens, of course, was endorsed by the establishment GOP candidate, who dropped out of the race in the face of the Hoffman surge.  If Owens wins, there will be a backlash within the Republican Party.  Some national Republicans intervened in the race to boost Hoffman, instead of the anointed GOP candidate, and may now regret it.  Some local Republicans in the district warned that it has been trending Democratic, and went for Barack Obama in 2008, and that someone as conservative as Hoffman could not be elected.  There's a big debate ahead if Owens wins, which now seems likely.

10:58 p.m.:  Although Mayor Mike Bloomberg has been elected to a third term in New York City, the race has turned out much closer than had been expected.  He was projected to win by double digits, but his margin of victory will turn out to be in the five-point range.  It may be that a number of Bloomberg voters, expecting an easy victory, stayed home. 

10:19 p.m.:  BULLETIN:  FOX NEWS HAS JUST CALLED THE NEW JERSEY GOVERNSHIP RACE FOR REPUBLICAN CHRIS CHRISTIE.  NEW JERSEY IS A PROFOUNDLY BLUE STATE.  PRESIDENT OBAMA CAMPAIGNED HEAVILY FOR INCUMBENT JON CORZINE.

10:15 p.m.:  There are reports of ballot problems in New York's now-famous 23rd Congressional District.  USA Today reports:  "This is not good news for political junkies hoping to get a winner in New York's 23rd Congressional District before bedtime: There are voting machine problems in St. Lawrence County, one of the more populous areas in the district.  The Watertown Daily Times says there are problems with the new scanners that read the ballots in the towns of Louisville, Waddington, Rossie and Clare.  'We may not have results from those towns tonight,' St. Lawrence County Board of Elections Deputy Commissioner Thomas Nichols told the paper."

Currently, Democrat Bill Owens is holding a seven-point lead over insurgent conservative Doug Hoffman, with 29% of the vote in.  We don't know where those votes are coming from. 

10:05 p.m.:  The New York Times has just called the New York mayoralty for Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent, which is no surprise.  The Democrats, who used to own City Hall, haven't been elected to the big office there since 1989, before most people had gotten into the internet, and long before the iPod was invented. 

9:56 p.m.:  BULLETIN:  With 64% of the vote in, Republican Chris Christie is holding a six-point lead over incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine.  Christie is doing better than expected in a number of areas.  Exit polls indicated that he enjoys a wide lead among independents.  This could be big.

9:50 p.m. :  In Atlanta, Mary Norwood is close to the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff.  She stands a good chance to be the first white mayor of Atlanta in 36 years.  She has the endorsement of some prominent African-Americans.

9:35 p.m.:  The GOP victory in Virginia is huge, with Bob McDonnell winning the governorship by about 20 points.  The state went for Obama last year.  McDonnell is about to speak.

9:32 p.m.:  It is still much too early to make a call, but Republican Chris Christie is maintaining his lead in the New Jersey gubernatorial race.  However, many Dem strongholds have not yet reported, and they have a way of finding votes.  So be careful if you hear predictions.

9:30 p.m.:  Doug Hoffman, the conservative insurgent in New York's 23rd Congressional District, was on the air a few minutes ago suggesting that ACORN-style gimmicks were being pulled in his district.  We'll keep watch on this.

9:14 p.m.:  Karl Rove was just on Fox News saying that Chris Christie, the Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, is a few points ahead of where he needs to be to win the election.  This is very tight.  There is both hanky and panky in New Jersey cities.  Stand by.

8:56 p.m.:  Polls close in New York in four minutes.  We'll focus on that great fight in the 23rd Congressional District.  No new significant returns from New Jersey.  The poll watchers are still taking English as a second language.

8:39 p.m.:  From the Asbury Park (N.J.) Press:  "TRENTON — The tight three-way race for governor of New Jersey, a state battered by high taxes and scarred by government corruption, was too close to call after balloting ended Tuesday, according to an Associated Press exit poll of voters."

8:36 p.m.: For those interested, there are no signficant returns in yet from Atlanta, where a racially charged mayoralty race is being decided.  We'll let you know.

8:29 p.m.:  Very early returns from New Jersey look good for Republican gubernatorial challenger Chris Christie, according to CNN, but these returns are far too early to be predictive.

8:11 p.m.:  CNN now calls Virginia for McDonnell.  Guess they waited for Fox to make it official.

8:01 p.m.:  The polls just closed in New Jersey.  They're now counting ballots, or things that look like ballots.  You know you're in trouble when the candidates' names are written in invisible ink. 

7:59 p.m.:  Fox has just called Virginia for Bob McDonnell, the Republican candidate for governor.  This was expected, but a blow to the Democratic Party.  The Democratic national chairman, Tim Kaine, is the current governor of the state.

7:55 p.m.:  From Fox News:  "Early returns show Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds in the Virginia governor's race by a wide margin.  With 19 percent of precincts reporting, McDonnell has 65 percent and Deeds has 35 percent.  McDonnell had been leading Deeds by double digits in almost every poll ahead of Election Day. Deeds and his supporters have still held out hope for a possible upset Tuesday night. "

7:40 p.m. :  Polls in New Jersey close in 20 minutes.  If there'll be a political bloodbath tonight, it will be in New Jersey.  Almost all citizens who intended to vote have now voted.  The dearly departed have voted.  People with three names have voted.  People who don't exist have now voted.  Service stations have long lines as party stalwarts line up to refill after driving from poll to poll to vote at least 16 times.  This is New Jersey, the garden state.

7:35 p.m. :  This, from the Washington Post, on Virginia:  "Governor's race is too early to call, but exit polls show Republican candidate with a sizable advantage."

7:02 p.m.:  Polls in Virginia have just closed.  Fox News reports it does not have enough data to make a prediction, which is entirely understandable.  But the rumor mill tells us that Barack Obama has just cut the Virginia star out of the flag.

6:53 p.m.:  Polls in Virginia close in seven minutes.  We've been told to expect an easy win for GOP governorship candidate Bob McDonnell, but Dems are claiming a strong and encouraging turnout in their areas.  This is happy talk.  The truth, either way, will come out very quickly.  Stay tuned.

REMEMBER WHEN OBAMA WANTED THIS IN AUGUST? - AT 6:03 P.M. ET:  A funny thing happened to health-care "reform" on the way to a year-end deadline.  Fox News reports:

Despite President Obama's goal of signing healthcare reform legislation this year -- one backed by assurances from congressional Democrats -- Senate Democratic leaders Tuesday subtly acknowledged that's not likely to happen as they started the delicate dance of walking back expectations.

Putting the legislation together has proved exceedingly difficult, and most aides now say there is virtually no way a bill can get to Obama's desk this year.

When asked directly if he could finish legislation this year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday, "We're not going to be bound by any timelines. We need to do the best job we can for the American people. We want quality legislation, and we're going to do that."

Previously, the Nevada Democrat had said a bill could be finished by various other deadlines, with Thanksgiving being the most recent one. But Reid started to qualify his answer after an August recess deadline came and went, saying that he didn't want to be bound by "arbitrary timelines."

COMMENT:  Reid later backtracked, saying he thought work could be finished by year's end, but others agreed with his more pessimistic assessment.

This has turned into a mess.  The bill is longer than the Five Books of Moses, and they've taken 6,000 years to understand.  A GOP bill, at about 350 pages, is expected in the next few days.  Watch some smug liberal commentator say, "You see, these Republicans, all they can read is 350 pages."

Neither version reads as well as "The Caine Mutiny."

November 3, 2009   Permalink

CLOSING TIMES - AT 5:08 P.M. ET:  Swing State Project, which is here, publishes a list of poll closing times.  Here is when you'll get the first election news tonight:

7:00 p.m.:  Virginia.  The governorship should be decided quickly, for Bob McDonnell, the GOP candidate.  Also closing is Georgia.  The mayoralty of Atlanta is being decided, and there are racial overtones.  It's possible that Atlanta will elect its first white mayor in many years.  That is noted objectively.  We're neither for nor against.

8:00 p.m.:  New Jersey.  Possibly the hottest race of the night.  Expect the count to go on a long time, and look for charges of fraud. 

9:00 p.m.:  New York.  The now-famous 23rd Congressional District will begin counting.  Watch the TV pundits go wild trying to interpret this one.  Also, the mayoralty of New York City will be decided.  As we've noted before, if Mayor Mike Bloomberg is reelected to a third term, it will mark 20 years since heavily Democratic New York City will have elected a Democratic mayor.

COMMENT:  There's almost no way the Democratic Party can come out of this looking good.  Losing the Virginia governorship alone is a major blow.  Even if New York is close, close in a heavily blue state is rare.  In New York's 23rd district, the Democratic nominee can only win with Republican support.

Stand by.  Things are getting interesting.

November 3, 2009   Permalink 
 

MR. OBAMA, WHAT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS ANSWER? - AT 1:58 P.M. ET:  Iran's supreme leader, or whatever they call him, has now responded to Washington's overtures toward the Iranian regime:

TEHRAN -- Iran's supreme leader, spurning what he described as several personal overtures from President Obama, warned Tuesday that negotiating with United States was "naive and perverted" and said Iranian politicians should not be "deceived" into starting such talks.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Obama has approached him several times through oral and written messages. It was the second time that Khamenei, 70, who wields ultimate political and religious authority in Iran, has referred to Obama's outreach, in which the U.S. president reportedly has requested talks between the two estranged nations.

Khamenei previously has mentioned receiving two letters from Obama. The White House has not confirmed sending letters to the supreme leader but has acknowledged a willingness to talk to Iran and said it has sought to communicate with Iranian leaders in a variety of ways.

What will Obama do now?  We know what he'll do.  He'll pretend nothing happened, and look for other ways to appease Iran.

In his harshest comments against the Obama administration to date, Khamenei said Tuesday that the United States has ill intentions toward Iran and is not to be trusted. The remarks came amid wrangling between Iranian officials and representatives of the United States, Russia and France over a U.N.-backed proposal aimed at resolving a protracted dispute over Iran's nuclear program.

COMMENT:  The president must produce something on Iran soon, or lose the confidence of any thinking American to the right of Bill Ayers. 

The West Europeans, usually soft as the buttery spread, are taking a harder line toward Iran than we are.  Meanwhile, the centrifuges keep spinning, and they're not producing pasteurized milk.

November 3, 2009   Permalink  

NEW JERSEY UPDATE - AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  Fox News has a good analysis of what to expect in today's New Jersey election for governor, which may well turn out to be the most exciting race of the day:

Last-minute shifts from independent candidate Chris Daggett could spell success for Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine in the New Jersey governor's race Tuesday. But Republican Chris Christie may still rely on turnout among undecided voters to pull an upset in what has been the closest race of the 2009 off-year election.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Monday found Christie with a 2-point lead over Corzine. Among likely voters, 42 percent backed Christie and 40 percent backed Corzine.

But independent Chris Daggett is still holding on to 12 percent of the vote, according to the poll, and the race's outcome rests on votes from his supporters as well as from undecided constituents.

The survey found that 38 percent of Daggett's supporters said they might change their mind on Election Day. Of the 38 percent thinking about changing their vote, 39 percent said they would back Corzine and 29 percent said they would support Christie.

Christie's 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but marks a gain from a Quinnipiac survey released last week, in which Corzine enjoyed a 5-point lead.

COMMENT:  Democrats usually pull it out in New Jersey, by hook or crook, mostly the latter.  Daggett is a kind of "moderate" type, high-sounding, whose supporters might well prefer the hopeless but well-dressed Corzine to the rougher GOP candidate, Christie.  There are people who choice depends on who they'd rather have at a dinner party.

The fraud issue comes into play if the vote is close.  I'm writing this about 15 miles from the New Jersey border.  Every time I look out the window and see an unmarked truck pass by, I wonder if it's filled with fake ballots, heading over the Tappan Zee Bridge.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

A MAN NOT "OF US" - AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  Why is President Obama down so far in the polls, compared to where he was?  In part, I think, it's because his policies reflect a man who is president of us, but is not "of us."  Rich Lowry writes a terrific piece today pointing out that the president has declined an invitation to visit Berlin on the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall.  What a strange thing to do...unless you're Barack Obama: 

He has begged off going to Berlin next week to attend ceremonies commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall. His schedule is reportedly too crowded. John F. Kennedy famously told Berliners, "Ich bin ein Berliner." On the 20th anniversary of the last century's most stirring triumph of freedom, Obama is telling them, "Ich bin beschäftigt" - i.e., I'm busy.

It doesn't have quite the same ring, does it? Obama's failure to go to Berlin is the most telling nonevent of his presidency. It's hard to imagine any other American president eschewing the occasion. Only Obama - with his dismissive view of the Cold War as a relic distorting our thinking and his attenuated commitment to America's exceptional role in the world - would spurn German president Angela Merkel's invitation to attend.

Well said.  Obama doesn't have the "American" feel, does he?

Wouldn't Obama at least want to take the occasion to celebrate freedom and human rights - those most cherished liberal values? Not necessarily. He has mostly jettisoned them as foreign-policy goals in favor of a misbegotten realism that soft-pedals the crimes of nasty regimes around the world. During the Cold War, we undermined our enemies by shining a bright light on their repression. In Berlin, JFK called out the Communists on their "offense against humanity." Obama would utter such a phrase only with the greatest trepidation, lest it undermine a future opportunity for dialogue.

Right on.

Pres. Ronald Reagan realized we could meet with the Soviets without conceding the legitimacy of their system. He always spoke up for the dissidents - even when it irked his negotiating partner, Mikhail Gorbachev. Whatever the hardheaded imperatives of geopolitics, we'd remain a beacon of liberty in the world.

Obama has relegated this aspirational aspect of American power to the back seat. For him, we are less an exceptional power than one among many, seeking deals with our peers in Beijing and Moscow. Why would Obama want to celebrate the refuseniks of the Eastern Bloc, when he won't even meet with the Dalai Lama in advance of his trip to China?

Finally....

An American president will skip events marking the end of a struggle to which we, as a nation - under presidents of both parties - devoted blood and treasure for 50 years. For Barack Obama, 1989 is just another far-away year - and the Democratic party of such men as Harry S. Truman and JFK has never seemed more distant.

COMMENT:  Obama's thinking, and it's not original with him, is the reason why so many of us drifted from the old Democratic Party, the national-defense party.  Look at that party today.  What a pathetic organization of pseudo-sophisticated trendies, much like Britain's Labour Party.  And at the top is the trendiest of them all, The One, the Holy of Holies.  Except the parishioners are leaving the pews.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

OBAMA IN LESS THAN GREAT SHAPE ON ELECTION DAY - AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  No matter how CNN spins it, in reporting its latest poll, the president is not doing well with the American public:

WASHINGTON (CNN) - One year after he won an historical presidential election, a slight majority of Americans approve of the job Barack Obama's doing in the White House.

Fifty-four percent of people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday morning approve of how Obama's handling his duties as president, with 45 percent saying they disapprove.

Hardly worthy of applause.  And notice that the poll, as described later in the piece, was conducted among "adult Americans."  Not even registered voters.  Not even likely voters.  Polls among all adults with a pulse tend to overestimate the Democratic vote.  Actual returns trend more Republican.  So 54% is less than wonderful.  Rasmussen yesterday had Obama at 46% among likely voters.  If CNN polled likelies, they'd probably have a figure closer to Ras's. 

CNN puts on a happy face...at first:

"Obama's approval rating of 54 percent is nearly identical to the 53 percent of the vote he won a year ago," notes CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "And in nearly every demographic category, the percent that approve of Obama today is within two to three points of the percent who voted for him in 2008..."

And then the bad news:

The survey suggests that the president's approval rating remains over 50 percent even though most Americans disapprove of how Obama is handling the economy, health care, Afghanistan, Iraq, unemployment, illegal immigration and the federal budget deficit.

And then, of course, there are the major issues. 

Just look at that list.  Americans are rejecting the policies of this administration.

More happy face:

Six in ten say Obama inspires confidence in them; six in ten also call him a strong leader who is honest and trustworthy. 63 percent say he is not a typical politician. More than half gives Obama a thumbs-up on 11 of the 12 personal characteristics tested...

That's nice.  Now more real world:

Only 45 percent say he has a clear plan for solving the country's problems - the only item on which a majority has a negative view of him.

Yeah, and who cares about that?  Right?

This is not good news for the White House.  Maybe it's time for the president to take another "rock star" tour of European youth.

November 3, 2009   Permalink

ELECTION DAY - AT 8:32 A.M. ET:  It's election morning here in the East, where most of the headline-making action will take place today.  The polls are opening.  Voters are making their way to polling stations.  In New Jersey, many of the dearly departed will be making their usual election-day appearances in the voting booths, proving that there is indeed life after death.

There are no new last-minute polls.  Maybe there'll be some in the next few hours.  The key races shape up this way:

- Virginia:  Unless something goes radically wrong in turnout, GOP gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell looks like a shoo-in for governor.

- New York City:  Again, unless something cuts his turnout, two-time Mayor Mike Bloomberg, an independent, looks certain to win a substantial victory.  In the heavily Democratic city of New York, this means that no Democrat has been elected to the mayor's chair in 20 years.  Free at last, free at last, thank God almighty, we're free at last.

- New York 23rd:  Right now it's the most famous congressional district in the country.  There's a good chance that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman will pull off a victory against Democrat Bill Owens, but that is not a certainty.  The district has been trending moderate Republican, and went for Obama in 2008.  The last poll showed 18% undecided.  Watch this one.  Hoffman did himself no good in an anemic appearance on Fox News last night.  He looked ready for the undertaker.

- New Jersey:  Probably the most exciting race.  Republican challenger Chris Christie is neck-and-neck with much-disliked incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, with a third-party moderate acting as spoiler, and probably taking votes from Christie.  If Christie wins in this bluest of blue states, it will be a major blow to the Dems.  But - and this is critical - voter fraud is a major issue.  ACORN's allies are active.  Look for possible charges of fraud during the day.

We'll be watching developments all day, blogging through the returns tonight. 

November 3,  2009   Permalink 

MONDAY,  NOVEMBER 2,  2009

AND THE WEATHER IS BUSH'S FAULT, TOO, AND THE PROBLEM IN YOUR CAR'S DISTRIBUTOR - AT 11:30 P.M. ET:  You have to love this gang.  They make us feel young again because they're so high-schoolish in their antics.  From the Washington Times:

The White House is beginning to send strong signals that it recognizes the $1.4 trillion budget deficit is a looming political problem that needs to be addressed, even as President Obama reminds Americans that the country's fiscal crisis originated with the Bush administration and will not be resolved overnight.

As Charles Krauthammer asked in a column, is there anything Obama hasn't blamed on BUSH (!!)?

The president's budget director, Peter R. Orszag, on Tuesday will deliver the second major speech on the deficit in a week by a top White House official. Mr. Orszag's speech on "reining in the deficit" will be the first time that a top White House economist will look forward at the difficult task of reducing the gap between government revenues and expenditures.

The first time?  The first time? 

Republicans have hammered the administration for government spending levels, and public polling for the first time is showing that the American public is losing confidence in the president's handling of the economic crisis.

Gee, I wonder why.  You don't think it might be because a top White House economist is addressing the issue for the first time, do you?

COMMENT:  Governing is hard, isn't it?  It's a lot harder than standing in an arena and shouting, "Yes we can!"  Okay, Mr. Obama, "If you can, do!"

November 2, 2009   Permalink

THE EXTENT OF VOTER "IRREGULARITIES" - AT 7:21 P.M. ET:  We've devoted considerable attention today to issues of voter fraud in New Jersey.  But the problem is nationwide.  A stunning new study indicates that many voters, presumably participating in the democratic process, in fact saw their voting days end some time ago:

(CNSNews.com) – Regardless of how lively an election season might be, a new study shows that more than 3.3 million voters on current registration rolls across the country are dead.

Another 12.9 million remain on voter registration lists in an area where they no longer live.

The analysis was conducted by Aristotle International Inc., a technology company
specializing in political campaigns, developing software and databases for politicians.

In total that means about 8.9 percent of all registered voters fall under the category of “deadwood” voters on the rolls, the term for voters who should no longer be eligible to vote in a precinct.

Not only does this raise concerns about potential voter fraud, but from the interest of campaign consultants, ineligible or expired voters could lead to a waste of resources, said John Aristotle Phillips, CEO of Aristotle.

“Some states have bigger problems than others,” Phillips said. “With deadwood exceeding one in seven votes in some counties, candidates might as well spend a day a week campaigning in the cemetery.”

COMMENT:  Well, at least in the cemeteries the voters don't ask rude questions, the way they did at those town meetings. 

The figures, though, are disturbing.  They call into question the validity of many elections, and present the image of a third-world country, not a modern democracy.  The fact is, though, that many of the worst offenses occur in inner cities, where questions about voter rolls are met with charges of "racism."  The real racism, of course, is the corruption of the election process itself.

November 2, 2009   Permalink

HILLARY TALKS TOUGH TO IRAN - AT 6:27 P.M. ET:  I don't know if this is part of the good cop/bad cop routine, but Hillary Clinton is talking tough these days - first to the Palestinians, now to the Iranians.  This doesn't sound like Obama talking.

Or, maybe Hillary is realizing what side her bread is buttered on, and wants to come off as tough, the better to leave the administration and run for the top job again someday, with a record that can appeal to the broad middle, not just the left.  She is insisting that Iran take the nuclear deal on the table, as AP reports:

MARRAKECH, Morocco (AP) -- U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Monday that the nuclear offer to Iran, intended to restrain its potential for making a nuclear weapon, should be fully accepted by Iran and will not be changed.

''This is a pivotal moment for Iran,'' she said at a news conference after consulting with senior government officials from several Persian Gulf nations, plus Egypt, Morocco and Jordan.

''We continue to press the Iranians to accept fully the proposal that has been made, which they accepted in principle,'' Clinton said. ''Acceptance fully of this proposal ... would be a good indication that Iran does not wish to be isolated and does wish to cooperate with the international community.'' She said Iran should accept it as it stands, ''because we are not altering it.''

COMMENT:  Okay, she said we're not altering it.  Now the question is whether Obama will back her up, or throw her under the bus, like all the others who became redundant to his ambitions.  Her statement is clear and uncompromising.  If it gets bent by the White House, she will come off as someone out of the loop.

We are at a critical moment, not only on Iran policy, but in the relationship between the marshmallow in the White House and his much tougher secretary of state.

November 2, 2009   Permalink

MORE ON JERSEY ELECTIONS - AT 6:10 P.M. ET:  No journalist knows more about election fraud than John Fund of The Wall Street Journal, and now he trains his sights on tomorrow's New Jersey contest for governor.  New Jersey provides such a rich canvas:

The race for governor in New Jersey is so close in final polls that it may well end up in a recount -- the 1981 election did and was decided by less than 1,800 votes. If there is a recount, you can bet disputes about absentee ballots will loom large. Moreover, if serious allegations of fraud emerge, you can also expect less-than-vigorous investigation by the Obama Justice Department -- which showed just how seriously it takes such allegations when it walked away from an open-and-shut voter intimidation case against the New Black Panther Party in Philadelphia earlier this year.

Ah yes, we remember it well.

Absentee voter fraud is in danger of becoming a hardy perennial in New Jersey. Atlantic City Councilman Marty Small and 13 campaign workers were indicted in September on charges of conspiring to commit election fraud using absentee ballots. One worker pleaded guilty last month. In Newark, five campaign workers were indicted in August on charges involving absentee ballot fraud.

The stories are pouring in:

Victor Negron, a campaign adviser for independent mayoral candidate Roberto Feliz, a former director of Camden's public works department, says he's shocked that more than fifteen times the normal number of voters are casting absentee ballots in Camden this year. In the 2005, when the city's voters voted for both governor and mayor on the same day, only 200 absentee ballots were cast. This year, some 3,700 have already been received.

And practice does make perfect:

Authorities in nearby Philadelphia know about such scams. In one infamous case, a key 1993 race that determined which party would control the Pennsylvania state senate was thrown out by a federal judge after massive evidence that hundreds of voters had been pressured into casting improper absentee ballots. Voters were told by "bearers" that it was all part of "la nueva forma de votar" -- the new way to vote. Local politicos tell me Philly operatives associated in the past with Acorn may now be advising their Jersey cousins on how to perform such vote harvesting.

And...

Nor is in-person fraud at the polls unknown in New Jersey. In 2007, a former Hoboken zoning board president noticed a group of men outside a polling place being given index cards by two people. One of the loiterers later tried to vote in the name of a voter who had moved out of the area. When challenged by the former zoning board president, he ran out of the building and was caught. He later admitted to police he was part of a group from a homeless shelter who had been paid $10 each to vote using the names of other people.

COMMENT:  The New Jersey result is likely to be close.  The GOP gubernatorial candidate is a former U.S. attorney, who knows the law and the tactics likely to be used.  This may well be a contest that will be decided in the courts.  We'll be alert all day tomorrow to charges of fraud, especially in New Jersey's cities, like Newark.  We may not know the actual outcome for weeks.  If the Obama justice department is drawn in, the mess can impact the White House.

November 2,  2009   Permalink

LAST RAS BEFORE THE VOTE - AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  The last Rasmussen presidential tracking poll before tomorrow's election has just been published, and it's not good news for the White House or those depending on Obaman coattails:

Some 27% of likely voters strongly approve of the job President Obama is doing, but 40% strongly disapprove, a minus 13 gap.  Only one before on a day in August, did the president fare worse in this measurement.

Overall, 46% of likely voters approve of the president's job performance, but 52% disapprove.

Other polls show the president in a stronger position, but some of them measure total registered voters or even total citizens, not likely voters.

It isn't all bleak for the administration.  The number of people who consider themselves Democrats has inched up in recent months, whereas the number who consider themselves Republicans has dropped slightly.  It now stands at 37.8% Dem, 31.9% GOP.  However, this poll was taken among all adults, and Rasmussen points out that Republicans are somewhat more likely to vote.  And we should not forget that independents have been trending rightward recently, so party affiliation may not be an indicator of election results. 

The poll that counts is the one taken tomorrow in key states, and all over the country in 2010 and 2012.

November 2, 2009   Permalink 

THOSE OUTSIDE AGITATORS - AT 8:50 A.M. ET:   Dede Scozzafava, who's now enjoying her 15 minutes of fame - make that 5 minutes - as the GOP establishment candidate who got eliminated in New York's 23rd congressional district by a conservative insurgent, whined loudly about outsiders influencing the election by their support of said insurgent, Doug Hoffman.  Now that Scozzafava, known as "Dede the loyal," has jumped ship and endorsed the Democratic candidate for the House seat, she seems more open to participation by them foreigners.  And, of course, Dede being Dede, there'll be some profit.  The Politico reports:

Fearful that the party had almost no chance of winning the Nov. 3 New York special election after Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out, high-ranking national Democrats immediately began working to secure her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, POLITICO has learned.

Can you just sense the promises coming.

According to several senior Democratic officials, Rep. Steve Israel, a Long Island Democrat and DCCC official, was dispatched to meet face-to-face with Scozzafava in her upstate New York district within hours of her departure from the race to make the case on behalf of the national party. He carried the proxy of the White House and congressional Democrats.

And we wasn't only bringing tea and sympathy.

When some senior Democrats worried Scozzafava might be wavering about the endorsement, according to another account, the White House got Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, one of the most powerful figures in the state, and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to place calls to the assemblywoman on Saturday evening to coax her into delivering it. Sen. Charles Schumer, who had been in touch with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Israel, also weighed in.

Just friends, just friends, just old friends calling to see how the family was.

Two senior Democrats with ties to the White House praised Cuomo’s role in the operation, saying they were confident Scozzafava was on board after learning that she told Cuomo: "You're going to be the next governor of New York."

So she's now endorsing a Dem for governor without even knowing who the candidate of "her" party is.  Hmm.

I would love to know what was offered. 

Also critical was Silver’s assurance, in a phone conversation with Scozzafava, that the state Assembly Democratic caucus would embrace her if she chose to switch parties, now viewed as a real possibility after her endorsement Sunday of Owens.

Real politics played the hard way.  Look for Dede to send back her GOP membership card and suddenly see the light shining from the dome of Barack Obama.

November 2, 2009   Permalink

ELECTIONS, THE JERSEY WAY - AT 8:24 A.M. ET: When the term "clean elections" is mentioned, the name "New Jersey" does not instantly come to mind.  Among many finer things, the state is also known for some, uh, colorful election practices.  Are we seeing the usual tactics practiced by the usual suspects?  Maybe so.  There'll be an election for governor in Jersey tomorrow.  There'll also be a vote count.  The two may be somewhat connected:

...evidence is building that Corzine’s campaign may see its only salvation is in rigging the election.

I'm just shocked to read this.

Now, in the final days of the campaign, it appears state democrats are paying for robo calls supporting Independent Chris Daggett. First reported here, the robo calls attack Christie (but not Corzine) and promote Daggett. At the end of the call, it is mentioned that the calls are paid for by a “project of the NJSDC.” No idea what that acronym stands for, but New Jersey State Democratic Committee, isn’t too big of a stretch. More interesting is the fact that the return number on the calls is the same number that was used to promote Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley’s election in closing days of the 2006 race.

But all men are brothers, aren't they?

More telling that the fix is in, however, is the sudden appearance of ACORN on the scene. Not by name, mind you, as their reputation is so tarnished that even New Jersey Democrats don’t want to be associated with them. No, in New Jersey ACORN sought cover behind its big brother, SEIU, specifically SEIU Local 32BJ.

The political director for the SEIU local is Peter Colavito. Just last year, he was ACORN’s political director in New York, working directly under Bertha Lewis, ACORN’s CEO and co-chair of ACORN-backed Working Families Party.

Oh, ACORN.

GOP officials recently received a phone tip from a hospital in Newark, reporting that people in ACORN t-shirts were in the facility signing up and collecting absentee ballots...

...There are reports out of Camden, New Jersey that voters are discovering that absentee ballots have already been submitted under their name. They did not authorize these ballots. Early reports suggested that the number of absentee ballots ‘requested’ in Camden city is higher than in any previous election.

Camden is one of the most depressed, and dangerous, cities in the nation.  Look, maybe people want absentee ballots for their personal safety.  You never know...

And get this:

Possibly anticipating this confusion, the state Democratic Committee recently sent a letter to the Secretary of State, arguing that any absentee ballot that is rejected should still be counted as a “provisional” vote. The letter complained that almost 3,000 absentee ballots had already been rejected “solely on the basis of a comparison of their signature to the signature on record.” Solely? If the signature of the voter doesn’t match the signature on the ballot, is there really a reason to look at anything else?

Oh, come on.  Signatures are artistic expressions.  Maybe some citizens like to vary them.  This reporter has no sense of local culture.

The best hope here is that Christie wins by enough of a margin that these dirty tricks are moot. As they say in sports, put enough points on the board and the refs can’t steal it from you.

We'll be reporting an election to you tomorrow night, I think.  You'll know Jersey is in trouble if the number of votes in some precincts exceeds the number of people who live there.

November 2, 2009   Permalink

NEW JERSEY LAST MINUTE - AT 5:02 A.M. ET:  A last-minute poll, conducted Saturday and Sunday by Public Policy Polling, gives Republican challenger Chris Christie a solid lead over incumbent Dem Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey's gubernatorial race:

Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41 in PPP's final poll of the New Jersey Governor's race, with Chris Daggett at 11%.

Corzine had pulled to within a point of Christie on our poll three weeks ago after trailing by as many as 14 points over the summer, but his momentum has stalled since then and Christie's built his lead back up to 4 points last week and now 6.

Christie's advantage is due largely to his support from independents and because he has Republicans more unified around him than the Democrats are around Corzine. Christie leads Corzine 52-29 with indies, as Daggett's support with that group has declined to 16%. Christie is getting 82% of Republicans to Corzine's 72% of Democrats.

COMMENT:  We stress again that this is one poll.  There may be others during the day.  We also stress that the last-minute impact of President Obama's campaign visit to New Jersey could not be reflected in this poll. 

Internal examination of the results shows a disturbing racial split, with African Americans and Hispanics heavily for Corzine, whites heavily for Christie:

Corzine leads 76-12 among African Americans and 51-37 among Hispanics but trails Christie by a resounding 55-33 margin with white voters.

That is a pattern we're likely to see in other races around the country. 

Stand by for possible updates.

November 2,  2009   Permalink

NEW YORK 23 LAST MINUTE - AT 5:01 A.M. ET:    Polling in the tumultuous race in New York's 23rd Congressional District, a race that has taken on national proportions, indicates that Conservative Party insurgent Doug Hoffman, who knocked the establishment Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, out of the race, may be headed for a solid victory Tuesday over Democrat Bill Owens.  From Public Policy Polling:

Doug Hoffman has a large lead in his bid to be elected the new Congressman from New York’s 23rd Congressional District.

Hoffman is at 51% to 34% for Bill Owens and 13% for Dede Scozzafava in the poll conducted over the weekend. In a two way contest against Owens, Hoffman holds a 54- 38 advantage.

Among Republicans Hoffman is at 71% to 15% for Scozzafava and 12% for Owens. With independents Hoffman holds a 52-30 lead over Owens. Owens is getting 67% of the Democratic vote to 21% for Hoffman and 10% for Scozzafava.

It was somewhat of a tumultuous polling weekend, first with Scozzafava’s withdrawal on Saturday and then with her endorsement of Owens on Sunday. But there were no significant differences in the numbers at any point over the course of the weekend. Hoffman led Owens by 18 points in interviews before Scozzafava’s withdrawal, 19 points in between her withdrawal and the announcement of her endorsement, and by 14 points subsequent to her encouraging people to vote for Owens.

COMMENT:  We stress that this is one poll, although PPP is widely seen as tilting Democratic.  Things can change during the day.  We'll give you results of any other last-minute polls.

November 2, 2009   Permalink