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WEDNESDAY,  SEPTEMBER 3,  2008

11:52 P.M. ET:  I've been monitoring the TV commentary.  Clearly, Sarah Palin made a powerful impression.  I was surprised at how positive the reaction was at CNN.  I'm now watching a reply of the Palin speech.  I have to say that it sounds even better the second time around.  (One problem with blogging as you're watching is that you break your attention, which is unfair to the speaker.)  I want to know how this played in the country, and we'll begin to know that over the weekend when the tracking polls pick up the reaction.   

11:10 P.M. ET:  Sarah Palin has now finished.  She obviously wowed the crowd.  Did she wow the country?  Hard to say.  It was a solid speech, well delivered.  I wish she'd ended it with more about herself and less about McCain, who's now come onstage.  I felt I wanted to hear more about Sarah.  I also felt the writing, which had to be done quickly, might have been sharper.  But, on balance, after taking a beating in the media, Sarah Palin acquitted herself well and certainly dispelled any doubts that she was up to being a national candidate.  She's an attractive person, very warm, the kind of person you want to know.  That counts.

10:52 P.M. ET:  Sarah is delivering a solid, effective speech.  She has to convince the public that she has the seriousness, wisdom and expertise to be vice president.  I think she's doing it.  She's at her best when discussing her own achievements as governor.  The image of Sarah as chief executive comes alive.  

10:30 P.M. ET: Rudy has finished, spectacularly, and Sarah Palin has now marched out.  She's getting wild applause.  She looks poised, in control, an executive.

10:20 P.M. ET:  Rudy is fantastic.  His case against Obama and for McCain is served raw and strong.  Now he's praising Sarah Palin.  Fact after fact.  Rudy is like a fleet of bombers. 

10:07 P.M. ET:  Rudy is on.  Red meat is served, hot and juicy.  He's tearing into Barack Obama, especially for the 150 times he voted "present" in the Illinois state legislature.  The crowd is whipped up.  Sarah next.

9:57 P.M. ET:  Kyra Phillips is interviewing Sarah Palin's sister on CNN.  Phillips is the reporter who drew William Bennett's ire a few nights ago when she turned a "news" spot into an advocacy piece for sex education.  Bennett correctly expressed outrage at the injection of personal opinion into a news spot.

Phillips just asked Palin's sister if Palin could be leader of the free world.  Gee, has anyone at CNN asked that about Barack Obama?  Palin's sister gives a fine response.

Now Philips is bringing up the teenager with the baby, and...

Who cares?  Philips never learned.  It's a patronizing interview.  Typical CNN.

9:48 P.M. ET:  Awaiting Rudy Giuliani.  Sarah Palin speaks in about 32 minutes.  Her family is already seated in the hall.  Excerpts of Palin's speech have been discussed by the news commentators, and the general feeling is that it's a solid, well-written speech.  I agree.  There is a tremendous sense of anticipation. 

9:14 P.M. ET:  Mitt Romney is speaking.  He's a pretty forceful speaker, and he's handing out the red meat in large bites.  But the fact is that no one is interested in anything other than Sarah Palin.  Anyone else, no matter how effective, is an opening act.

8:35 P.M. ET:  We'll now start our coverage of tonight's Republican convention, featuring the acceptance speech of Sarah Palin.  Apparently the TV people expect huge ratings.  I hope they're right.

Dick Morris had the most diabolical interpretation of events.  He feels that the GOP is drawing the enemy attackers in, and trapping them, and that the trap will be Palin's speech.  In a way, under this interpretation, the media assault on Palin is a good thing because it gives her a chance to counter with a great performance.

I'm sure she'll do well.  The key to a Republican victory this year is the same as it was when Ronald Reagan ran in 1980 - speak over the heads of the press, and directly to the American people.  Don't depend on fair press coverage, and don't expect it.  Make the press look foolish.  The press will cooperate fully in this.

NOTE AT 7:12 P.M. ET:  Reader Howard J. Klein writes the following, in response to the criticism by some that McCain's slogan, "Country First," is somehow fascist.  (See "Latest Disgrace," down below):

Seems to me the slogan “Country First” is a shorthand way of saying, “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.”  The Dems have slipped so far to the left that JFK is now a Nazi in their eyes.

Thoughtful.  JFK couldn't be nominated by today's Democratic Party.  He wouldn't even recognize it.

 

HANSON

Posted at 7:08 p.m. ET

We're now about three hours away from the most anticipated speech by a vice-presidential candidate since Richard Nixon introduced us to his kids' cocker spaniel, "Checkers," in 1952.  Sarah Palin speaks at 10 p.m. ET, according to the current schedule.

Historian Victor Davis Hanson examines why so many Americans seem already to like Palin.  Don't expect Hanson to get any offers from Ivy League schools because of this column, but he doesn't seem to care.  He states it well:

Much has been written why Palin both brings strength to the McCain ticket and is a gamble at the same time. Why then the growing wave of popular sentiment in her favor?

Various reasons, but one I think is that millions of Americans are simply tired of being lectured at by smug elites. Jetting Al Gore made tens of millions finger-pointing at us about our global warming. Obama's America, apparently unlike Rev. Wright's Trinity Church, is a cruel, downright mean and dysfunctional place. John Kerry's United States is one of the half-educated in need of Ivy-League enlightenment and tutorials.

Applause.

Palin's symbolism is the antithesis of the metrosexual wind- or body- surfing politican, and hair-plugged, neurotic TV pundit So at this time, right now, millions apparently like Palin's atypical 19th-century profile. Again, it's a pleasant change of pace from Harvard Law School, DC politics, "community organizing" and the can't-do, 'they raised the bar on me' collective complaint.

Yes it is.  But the MSM will never recognize that.

If she can beat off the frothing Newsweek/MSNBC/New York Times inbred rabid wolves, and do it with the grace she has shown so far, she will fill a deep yearning among Americans for someone like her. A lot of Americans, if they watch reality shows, prefer truckers on ice or Bering Sea crab fishing to endless psychodramas of thirty-something suburban whiners.

Finally...

Right now, there are millions rooting for her in a way not true of Biden—and many who are criticizing her don't have a clue why that it is so.

Thank you, Professor Hanson.  Well stated.

September 3, 2008.      Permalink          

NOTE AT 4:37 P.M. ET:  Jesse Ventura is quoted in our story below, "Latest Disgrace," saying, "And yet, Thomas Jefferson said dissension is the greatest form of patriotism."  I suspect he meant dissent, not dissension.

Reader Alan Bell notes that there is no record of Jefferson ever saying that.  He quotes from the Jefferson Encyclopedia:

"Dissent is the highest form of patriotism" is often attributed to Thomas Jefferson, but to date we have found no evidence that he said or wrote this. Its true origins are uncertain, but the saying may have entered popular culture during the Vietnam era.

The earliest usage of the phrase we have found is in a 1961 publication, The Use of Force in International Affairs: "If what your country is doing seems to you practically and morally wrong, is dissent the highest form of patriotism?"

The phrase was used repeatedly during the Vietnam era, and this may be when it came into general currency.

Thank you, Mr. Bell.

NOTE AT 3:54 P.M. ET:  Whether you like Tom DeLay or not, his quotes today are gems:  "The media has done more for John McCain in the last two days than he’s done for himself in the last year and a half," DeLay said.  "Trashing her is waking up the sleeping giant, and the sleeping giant is Republican women," he claimed.

Yup.

LATEST DISGRACE

Posted at 2:05 p.m. ET

Another sickening example of what some people will say in politics.  Tom Bevan, at Real Clear Politics, reports on an exchange on Larry King's show:

ST. PAUL - On the heels of Robert Wexler and the Obama campaign pushing the Nazi smear on Sarah Palin, the Nazi talk strikes again. Last night on Larry King, Dee Dee Meyers described the theme of last night's convention program - Country First - as a "very exclusive message" that she interpreted as meaning "basically either you're a Republican or you don't love your country."

King used Meyers' response as a segue to his other guests, Jesse Ventura and DL Hughley, and this is what they said:

KING: Yes, wasn't that surprising, Jesse, even though you didn't see it, that the theme was "we're the patriots"?

VENTURA: Well, you know, the Republicans have been pushing really Hermann Goering on us, the Nazi, since 2001. I mean, you know...

KING: Hermann Goering?

VENTURA: Yes. He said that it's easy to take a country to war. You have to convince them they're under attack. Denounce the pacifist for being unpatriotic and also for putting the country into danger. And yet, Thomas Jefferson said dissension is the greatest form of patriotism.

I like to follow the teachings of Thomas Jefferson a little bit more than Herman Goering.

KING: D.L., are you...

HUGHLEY: To follow...

KING: I'm sorry.

HUGHLEY: To follow up on what Jesse was saying, it did remind me -- I promise you, the first thing I thought when I saw those "Country First" signs, it reminded me of Nazis. It really -- I mean they just seemed so, you know -- that seemed to be a country that I don't recognize.

I didn't hear a single word at the Republican convention claiming that only Republicans are patriots.  Not one word. 

The term "McCarthyism" is flung around quite loosely, especially by the left.  McCarthyism, a somewhat exaggerated concept, consisted of a number of offenses, one of which was labeling someone a Communist based on a vague suspicion, or on something the person had done many years earlier.

Today, most McCarthyism is practiced on the left.  You see it in the discussion we've just reprinted.  Republicans - all Republicans - are essentially labeled as Nazis. 

Some conservatives have raised questions about Barack Obama's past political associations, and most of those questions, since they deal with working associations, are legitimate.  Yet, the mainstream media refuses to look into any of these concerns, apparently believing that to do so would be a kind of McCarthyism.  But referring to Republicans as Nazis elicits hardly any condemnation.

Double standard?  Of course.  Harmful to the country.  Well, was McCarthyism harmful to the country?  Almost two generations have been taught that it was.  Maybe those who teach should speak out today, and condemn the new McCarthyism.  I hear only silence.

September 3, 2008.      Permalink           

TRACKERS

Posted at 1:28 p.m. ET

Both trackers for today are now out, and they tend to confirm each other - a slight drop for Barack Obama.

As reported earlier, just below, Rasmussen has Obama up five points, in contrast to six yesterday. 

Gallup has Obama up six, in contrast to eight yesterday.

Trackers are taken over a three-day period.  Gallup reports:

This latest rolling average probably does not reflect much impact of the delayed opening of the Republican National Convention now underway in St. Paul, Minn. There was little convention activity Monday night due to Hurricane Gustav, and interviewing on Tuesday was, to a large degree, completed before the major prime time speeches at the convention were televised, particularly in the Midwest and Eastern portions of the country. A review of last week's tracking during the Democratic convention shows that Obama did not begin to show major gains until the tracking averages reported on Thursday, covering the first three nights of the Denver convention. So it is possible that any potential McCain convention bounce may not be evident for a few days.

Let us look forward to the bounce. 

September 3, 2008.      Permalink          

BULLETIN, AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  First tracker for the day is out.  Rasmussen has Obama up five points.  He had him up six yesterday.  Today's result would be based on polling done Sunday night through last night, but probably did not include reaction to last night's speeches.  There's no evidence in this result that the revelation about Sarah Palin's teen-aged daughter has scored much of an impact.

We await the Gallup tracker this afternoon. 

TONIGHT

Posted at 7:09 a.m. ET

Normally, during conventions, we begin with a review of the previous night.  No need to do that now.  I mentioned last night that it was a successful session, excellent speeches, solid arguments. 

That's not what's important now.

What's important now is tonight, the most important night of either convention.  Sarah Palin accepts the nomination for vice president tonight, after being subjected to two days of the most disgusting press assault I've seen in my lifetime.  The journalistic left is panicked by her.  How dare she be a woman who doesn't take orders from NARAL or NOW or all the other red-letter clubs.  How dare she allow her teen-aged, pregnant daughter to keep her baby.  How dare she think for herself.  How dare she go to any college outside the East.  Who does she think she is, an independent woman?

My belief is that the entire McCain campaign, indeed the election itself, may be riding on Sarah Palin's performance tonight.  I hope they allow her to be herself.  I also hope they allow her to come out swinging, especially at the journalistic hacks who've tried to destroy her.

If I were Sarah Palin tonight, this is the way I'd start:

Good evening.  My name is Sarah Palin, and I'm governor of the largest state in the Union.

Oh, and by the way, have you heard that I have a teen-aged pregnant daughter?

And have you heard that she's pro-life and that she's keeping her baby?

And have you heard that I once got a parking ticket?

And that my husband, more years ago than I can remember, had a DUI conviction?

Of course you've heard these things.  That's all some so-called journalists seem to care about.  You wonder sometimes whether some of them are in journalism or pornography, and whether they know the difference.

Well tonight, I'm going to talk about what I would do as vice president of the United States - to help John McCain keep this nation safe, to expand prosperity to every citizen, to solve our energy crisis - solutions in which my state will play a large part - and to make this greatest of all nations even greater.

And if there are people in the liberal media who don't think the little lady should be talking about these things - especially the crowd at The New York Times or CNN - they can shove it where the moon don't shine.  I'm a governor, an executive, a businesswoman, a proud mother, and I intend to fill this office completely, and to excel.

Oh, I'd love to hear her begin that way.  But, you know, they probably won't let her.

If I were running that campaign, I'd make media behavior an issue.  The public would roar its approval.

We count down the hours to Sarah Palin.  Why do I think history will be made tonight?

September 3, 2008.      Permalink          

WHY THEY HATE SARAH

Posted at 7:06 a.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal, which knows from media, gives an excellent analysis of why some in the media hate Sarah Palin.  They don't hold anything back:

Even as the Obama camp ponders how best to handle John McCain's veep pick of Sarah Palin, the high priests and priestesses of the media have marked her as an apostate. The Beltway class is in full-throated rebellion against a nondomesticated conservative who might pose a threat to their coronation of Barack Obama and the return of Camelot-on-the-Potomac.

And...

This is the same media whose chant for weeks -- no, months -- has been "let McCain be McCain." If we know anything about John McCain, it is that he is by instinct a reformer, sometimes to a fault. Yet when he acts like McCain and picks a maverick reformer in his own mold, his former media cheering squad turns on him for not conforming to Beltway mores and picking someone they've all met 10 times in the CNN green room.

Wonderful.

They want a VP to be a kind of parliamentary choice, someone they have already vetted, someone who's made them laugh with insider jokes at the Gridiron dinner. The Beltway class whines constantly about how it wants fresh voices in politics, but we guess this means a first-term Democratic Senator rather than a first-term Republican Governor from some godforsaken U.S. state few of them have ever been to.

Equally wonderful.

The spin du jour is that her choice reflects poorly on Candidate McCain because she wasn't properly vetted. Yet this seems to be false. Campaign vetter A.B. Culvahouse, White House counsel under Ronald Reagan, says Mrs. Palin told the campaign about her pregnant daughter and her husband's DUI at the age of 22. On Monday, Time magazine's Nathan Thornburgh wrote from Wasilla, Alaska, that Bristol Palin's pregnancy had been known by virtually everyone there, with little made of it. But what do these private family matters have to do with Mrs. Palin's credentials to be Vice President in any case?

Because the kid won't be modern and hip and have an abortion.  That's what they can't stand.

There is nothing more dangerous to entrenched Washington power than a populist conservative who looks unlikely to buy into Washington's creature comforts. Take a close look at Governor Palin's record on ethics and energy in Alaska, and it becomes clear what this Beltway outburst is actually about. The irony is that while Senator Obama is running on change, his acceptance speech made explicit that he's promising only more power and money for Washington. Sarah Palin's history of taking on the career politicians of a corrupt Alaskan GOP machine -- her own party -- shows that she's the more authentic change agent.

Joe Lieberman made the same point.  Drive that home!

If Sarah Palin succeeds as a national candidate, she could help John McCain proceed to a reform Presidency. Even if he loses while she does well, she could emerge as a major figure in GOP politics for years to come. This is why the media and political classes are so eager to discredit her. They can't let it happen.

We hope Mr. McCain and the GOP are prepared to fight back. On the evidence this week, it looks like an army of volunteers is forming up to help them.

Great. 

September 3, 2008.      Permalink          

TUESDAY,  SEPTEMBER 2,  2008

11:10 P.M. ET:  The first real night of the GOP convention is over.  In my view, it was very successful, far more so than I'd expected.  The speeches were eloquent and spirited, and, most important, they were well written and substantive.  The information they contained, especially about McCain's life story, was presented clearly and powerfully.  I see that Karl Rove is on now, saying he thought Thompson's speech and Lieberman's should have been reversed, because Lieberman, as the news of the night, should have had the better time slot.  No, I think the order was fine.  Lieberman endorsed McCain without any expression of bitterness toward his own party, and the idea of this Democratic national candidate endorsing a candate on the other side was a powerful final note for the night.  The evening was a great buildup to Sarah Palin tomorrow.

10:50 P.M. ET:  Joe Lieberman is one of my favorite politicians, but has never been my favorite speaker.  Tonight, though, he is giving a fine speech on behalf of McCain.  He has probably read himself out of the Democratic Party, but I'm not sure he cares.  I think he's making an effective appeal to independents.  Secretary of State? 

10:41 P.M. ET:  Joe Lieberman is stepping up to speak.  Unbelievable scene.  He was the Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 2000.

10:26 P.M. ET:  Fred Thompson is giving the best speech of his career, an endorsement of John McCain that any candidate would envy.  Ronald Reagan once said that he didn't see how anyone could be president without being an actor.  The same might be said of convention speakers.  Fred Thompson is an actor, and that skill, plus his political background, are on full display tonight.  Great performance.  Oscar, please.
 

10:06 P.M. ET:  So far, so good.  I'd been concerned about the appearance of President Bush because of his unpopularity.  But his speech, delivered from the White House, was dignified and proper, and his endorsement of John McCain was full-hearted and convincing.  Now the convention is running a film of Ronald Reagan.  Good choice.  Bringing Reagan in reminds viewers of an extraordinarily popular Republican president.  Fred Thompson is now speaking.

9:43 P.M. ET:  Some terrific moments at the GOP convention.  A film about a Medal of Honor recipient from the Iraq War.  Introduction of MOH recipients in the audience.  And introduction of John McCain's fellow POWs.  Very powerful, very effective.  People who've really walked the walk.  I suspect that will be a major theme of this convention.

9:24 P.M. ET:  Just saw another example of the outrageous Keith Olbermann, at MSNBC.  Andrea Mitchell had just finished an interview with Carly Fiorina and Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah.  They'd been talking about Sarah Palin's reputation as a reformer.  As soon as the interview ended, Olbermann, allegedly the anchorman, pronounced that the McCain people would have a hard time selling that idea because Palin, as mayor of a small town, had asked for earmarks.  It was an editorial, inappropriate for an anchor, but Olbermann is inappropriate, period.   He symbolizes the decline of journalism.
 

8:58 P.M. ET:  Newt Gingrich, also on Fox, gave an assessment that I think is accurate.  He projected a month ahead.  Either, he said, the press will succeed in its attempt to destroy Sarah Palin, in which case Obama will stand a good chance of winning.  Or, Palin will fight back, and prosper.  In that case, the Democrats will have a painful October.  Let us hope for the latter.

8:47 P.M. ET:  Frank Luntz, reporting on Fox, did focus group research on Sarah Palin after the announcement of her selection Friday.  He said that people at first were hesitant because of her thin experience, but became far more supportive when they heard more about her, about her battles in Alaska politics, and what she'd accomplished.  However, Luntz's research ended before announcement of her daughter's pregnancy.   

8:18 P.M. ET:  CNN is reporting that John McCain has cancelled an appearance on Larry King Live (or Dead) in protest against Campbell Brown's grossly unprofessional behavior during an interview with a McCain spokesman last night.  I saw that interview, and watched Brown giggle through it, basically ridiculing a news source.  I would have preferred that McCain appear on King and denounce CNN.  Use the air time against them.

7:05 P.M. ET.  We're now starting our coverage of tonight's Republican convention.    I've just been monitoring some of the early coverage.  CNN remains obsessed with Sarah bashing.  Dana Bash - an interesting name - breathlessly informed us that the McCain camp claims it asked Palin 70 questions, some of them personal.  Strange, didn't I read that news yesterday?  Yeah, I think so.

DIRECT HIT!  AT 5:01 P.M. ET.  McCAIN CAMP TAKES ON NEW YORK TIMES:  Add this to our report, "Media Disgrace," just below.  The McCain campaign has now snapped back at an outrageous New York Times hit job.  Real Clear Politics has the comments of official McCain blogger Michael Goldfarb:

While the press scrambles to report on the process by which Governor Palin was offered the second spot on the Republican ticket, New York Times reporter Elisabeth Bumiller has opted instead to make up her own version of events. As the AP reports, "Sarah Palin voluntarily told John McCain's campaign about her pregnant teenage daughter and her husband's 2-decade-old DUI arrest during questioning as part of the Republican's vice presidential search, the lawyer who conducted the background review said." Yet according to Bumiller, yesterday's disclosures "called into question" how thoroughly Governor Palin had been vetted. Why the discrepancy? It seems one reporter actually reported the story, while Bumiller made up her own....

And Bumiller writes that Governor Palin "was a member for two years in the 1990s of the Alaska Independence Party." Not true, and unsourced. Governor Palin has been a registered Republican since 1982.

Ms. Bumiller, if you'd like to try reporting instead of writing fiction, here's a link to our press line.

Terrific.  I'd love to see Sarah take on some of these media fools in her speech tomorrow, while at the same time praising those journalists, including liberal writers, who act fairly and professionally - and there are many.

MEDIA DISGRACE

Posted at 4:40 p.m. ET

More on the obnoxious media assaults on Sarah Palin.  ABC News reports that the supermarket tabloids are now joining the attack, with their usual vulgarity.  Rick Klein writes:

But this, to me, is the clearest evidence yet that the McCain-Palin campaign is losing the battle over Palin’s image. US Weekly readers are the voters her selection was designed to attract. There’s not much to like in this early take -- and not much to indicate that the next round will be much better.

Well, there's Sarah herself, who will speak to the nation tomorrow.  But the tabloids have a large audience, and their joining in the knifing does worry me.  There is a press riot going on.  It is sickening.

Some are fighting back.  Fred Thompson has taken on The New York Times, whose behavior has rivaled that of the tabloids.  The Hill reports: 

ST. PAUL - Former Sen. Fred Thompson lambasted The New York Times for its coverage of Sarah Palin on Tuesday, claiming the newspaper is "trying their best to drag her down."

Thompson told Fox News that the Times has focused on Palin's children, saying, "I don't think they get it."

But Thompson also said the Times is not the only one who has had unfair coverage of Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) running mate, claiming liberal bloggers "are in a state of panic" about Palin.

Thompson touted Palin as a outsider, suggesting that some Washington Republicans are "sore" that McCain didn't pick an inside-the-Beltway politician.

He said Palin "excites people like I've never seen before."

The only way to deal with a press assault is to fight back.  There are a lot of bullies in the press, but, as an institution, the mainstream media isn't as strong as it once was.  A media assault can be resisted.

And even the liberal Cokie Roberts, appearing on ABC's "This Week," defended Sarah Palin, as reported by Jerome J. Schmitt in American Thinker:

I was surprised to see Ms. Roberts, one of the grand-dames of mainstream television broadcast news, take center stage on Sunday to vigorously defend Governor Sarah Palin against attempts to dismiss her candidacy prematurely. George Will hardly said a word, leaving Ms. Roberts to do the heavy lifting on behalf of a Republican.

Ms. Roberts repeated her performance last night on PBS's Charlie Rose. Although not actually endorsing Sarah Palin, Ms. Roberts almost bristles at liberal concoctions designed to dismiss her qualifications before the Governor has had a chance to make her case to the American public.

Could the Palin candidacy be instigating a split in the ordinarily-monolithic liberal mainstream media? Dennis Sevakis already noted that Maria Bartiromo was positively effusive over Sarah Palin's qualifications on Meet the Press this past Sunday.

In response to the Governor's selection, a few well-known cast-members seem to be changing their roles.

Let's hope so.  But a word of caution:  I was in mainstream journalism, and you can't imagine the careerism that goes on.  Very few journalists will stick their necks out to defend Sarah Palin if the people who control their careers are sixties leftovers in the tank for Obama.  That is simple reality. 

But fight back we must.  There used to be a saying:  "Never start up with people who buy ink by the barrel."  Today you have to start up, or they'll sink you.

September 2, 2008.      Permalink          

NOTE AT 3:48 P.M.:  From a columnist named Fatimah Ali, Philadelphia Daily News:  "If McCain wins, look for a full-fledged race and class war, fueled by a deflated and depressed country, soaring crime, homelessness - and hopelessness!"

COMMENT:  We'd wondered weeks ago at Urgent Agenda when threats like this would start.  Now we know.  Sixty-eight years to the day after the end of World War II, we're told that, if we don't elect a particular candidate, we'll have violence in America.  Not what the guys fought for. 

TRACKERS

Posted at 3:08 p.m. ET

Both trackers are now out.  The Gallup tracker continues the disturbing trend we reported earlier today.  For whatever reason, Obama is enjoying a new bump in the polls.

Rasmussen, which had Obama up three yesterday, has him up six today.

Gallup, which had Obama up six yesterday, has him up eight today.

Why?

We did some speculating here earlier.  What could possibly account for this sudden bump, which occurred after a few days in which any convention "bounce" for Obama seemed to flatline?  Other polls just released also show important leads for Obama.

Was it the hurricane, reminding voters of what they don't like about Republicans?  Was it the Palin pick, even though that might not be mentioned directly?  Was it another, more positive look at Obama?  Was it the disruption in the GOP convention, which may have stopped McCain's momentum?  Was it simply the difficulty of polling over a holiday weekend? 

Or was it the relentless press assault, obnoxious and thoroughly unprofessional, directed at Governor Palin?

We don't know.  It's not a good day for McCain.  The convention begins in earnest tonight, and he's got to stop this new leakage.   Wednesday will be critical, when Sarah Palin gives her acceptance speech.

September 2, 2008.      Permalink          

NOTE AT 11:29 A.M.  Regarding the poll results reported below.  The sudden bump for Obama is baffling, but may - and this is an informed guess - be related to the difficulty of polling over a holiday weekend.  I don't have facts here.  I'm just suggesting the possibility.  There is an old saw that weekend polling favors Democrats.  I've not seen the evidence.  We'll get a fuller story in the coming weeks.

UPDATE AT 11:25 A.M.  AP reports that Rudy Giuliani, originally set to deliver a keynote tonight, will instead address the GOP convention tomorrow night or Thursday night in prime time.

BULLETIN AT 9:59 A.M.  A new Hotline poll just out shows Obama up nine points.  The poll was taken before the announcement that Sarah Palin's daughter is pregnant. 

BULLETIN AT 9:35 A.M.  In a stunning development, Barack Obama has doubled his lead in the Rasmussen tracker, just out.  Rasmussen has Obama up six.  He had him up three yesterday.   What is particularly alarming is that Obama has broken through the 50-percent mark, and now stands at 51 percent, versus 45 percent for McCain.

It is hard to know what accounts for this change.  Rasmussen says that the perception of Sarah Palin hasn't changed in the last few days, and today's result would include polling from last night, after announcement of her daughter's pregnancy.  Maybe it's just statistical noise, but this new number puts Rasmussen closer to other recent polls.  Gallup had Obama up six yesterday.  A CBS poll had him up eight.

This is not impossible to overcome.  But the disruption of the Republican convention may well depress the audience and limit enthusiasm.  Also, the Republicans have, incredibly, dropped Rudy Giuliani, one of the most popular men in the country, as keynote speaker.  I cannot understand that.

It may also be that the hurricane reminded people of what they don't like about Republican management.

The Gallup tracker will be published this afternoon.  We'll report.  Also, let's see if the McCain people can pull off the next three days of convention, and achieve some kind of bounce.

September 2, 2008. 

NO SHAME

Posted at 7:14 a.m. ET

Consider this headline from a New York Times story yesterday:  Palin’s Teen Daughter Is Pregnant; New G.O.P. Tumult.

Now consider this from Byron York at NRO Online:

As for now, at least, evangelicals seem to be completely on Palin’s side. And McCain’s. This is a group that has been skeptical of McCain in the past. Now, it’s probably fair to say that he has never been more popular among evangelicals than he is at this moment. Whether that will last, or whether Palin will cost McCain support among other voters, is not yet clear. But within the confines of the Republican Convention, McCain’s surprising choice of Palin — and the equally surprising news about her family — is paying off.

There is absolutely no evidence whatever that the Republican convention, or the party itself, was thrown into any tumult by the announcement that Sarah Palin's teen-aged daughter is pregnant.  The only people thrown into tumult were media types who couldn't wait to add this story to the mix they were using against Palin.

Indeed, the pregnancy story had special meaning for much of the media crowd because it apppeared to mock their holy of holies - abortion.  Many journalists seemed to go completely berserk.  The New York Times ran story after story, within hours of the announcement, raising issues that would never be raised with a Democratic candidate.  Get this one:

When Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska was introduced as a vice-presidential pick, she was presented as a magnet for female voters, the epitome of everymom appeal.

But since then, as mothers across the country supervise the season’s final water fights and pack book bags, some have voiced the kind of doubts that few male pundits have dared raise on television. With five children, including an infant with Down syndrome and, as the country learned Monday, a pregnant 17-year-old, Ms. Palin has set off a fierce argument among women about whether there are enough hours in the day for her to take on the vice presidency, and whether she is right to try.

In other words, she may be a rotten mother.

Can you just imagine if this had been written about a Democratic woman running for vice president?  Don't try imagining it.  It wouldn't happen.

And who has expressed these "doubts," other than those conveniently interviewed by some newspapers?

I actually heard some journalists question the integrity of the McCain campaign.  After all, why hadn't McCain come clean and informed the world of this news when he announced his choice of Palin?  Maybe he could have said this:  "Ladies and gentlemen, my choice for the vice-presidential nomination is Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska.  She's conservative, she's spirited, she's competent, and her unmarried teenaged daughter is pregnant."

It is disgusting.  Shame is one of the most important of human qualities, for it prevents us from doing that which is, well, shameful.  But there is no shame in some of the precincts of journalism.  I have never been more embarrassed by my original profession than I was yesterday.  There was more relentless questioning of Sarah Palin's fitness in a few hours than there has been of Barack Obama's during the months and months he has been running for president.  And there has yet to be a single question about Joe Biden's, despite some remarkably dubious decisions he has made as a senator. 

Sarah Palin speaks at the convention tomorrow night.  I hope she is greeted by a sustained ovation.  And I would have no problem if she were to discuss this family issue, and slam into the ground, by name, some of the journalists who have slimed her over the past 24 hours.  The place would erupt in cheers, and millions of Americans would join in. 

September 2, 2008.       Permalink          

REMEMBER PLEASE

Posted at 7:10 a.m. ET

Today marks the 63rd anniversary of the Japanese surrender aboard the USS Missouri in Tokyo Bay.

One of those witnessing the surrender ceremony was Admiral John Sidney McCain Sr., the grandfather of Senator John S. McCain, this year's Republican candidate for president. 

Admiral McCain's son, and Senator McCain's father, was Admiral John Sidney "Jack" McCain Jr., who commanded our forces in the Pacific during the Vietnam War, while Senator McCain was a prisoner of the North Vietnamese. 

Newsweek magazine is carrying a pretty reasonable portrait of Senator McCain - I recommend it - and it contains this quote from his father, Jack McCain:

"It's one of the most forgotten, then relearned foreign-policy axioms in history. If you keep backing away because you're afraid of what might happen to you—and you keep backing away and backing away—what you were afraid of in the first place is going to happen to you."

That is the wisdom with which Senator McCain was brought up.  It reflects the most profound difference between him and the appeasing, talk-to-everyone-unconditionally Barack Obama.

It is that idea that was the central theme of our resistance to Soviet expansionism during the Cold War.  The fact that Senator McCain accepts that concept, and practices it in his policy views, is one of the most important reasons to vote for him in November, and to keep his opponent out of the White House.

September 2, 2008.      Permalink           

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

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