William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2008
NOTE AT 10:23 P.M. ET: I thought I'd share with you a wonderful letter from reader John Pranikoff. I think it contains keen insights into the competing cultures within our country. As you read it you'll see why I printed it:
This guy is for Sarah Palin. When I look at her I see a little bit younger version of my wife.
Deb has always had a lot of disdain for the academic feminists, the Hillary crowd. Whiners making excuses for themselves. Instead of spewing rhetoric, she accomplished. As an assistant district attorney in Manhattan with over 30 homicide trials to her credit (record 32-1), she was in a male-dominated good-old-boy profession (at least it was when she started in 1980), and she did the old boys one better. My admiration for her should be obvious, just as I admired the women I worked with on Wall Street. Trading is (or was) a macho, male-dominated business, and I admired the women who made it in that world simply by virtue of their ability.
For the last 12 years we've lived in a small town in Montana, and the big city is becoming sort of a distant memory. I guess that means we're provincial and out of touch. But, seriously, having lived in both Sarah Palin's and Barack Obama's worlds (Yale undergrad, Columbia grad school) I think I have a fair amount of perspective on this clash of cultures. I firmly believe that the folks who are narrow, insular, and out of touch with this country are the ones who believe L.A., New York, and other select places on the coasts are the only patches of civilization in this country.
Here we cling to guns and religion, and my wife hunts (several mounts of deer she's got adorn our walls), fishes, and, oh, by the way, has a small-town law practice, too. She clings to guns so much that she's just filed a Second Amendment case in federal court, and is looking forward to arguing it in front of the judge. I feel sorry for the assistant US attorney who's assigned to the case.
The elitists back east don't know what to make of conservative western women, and I agree with you - they are totally baffled by Sarah Palin, and are at a strategic disadvantage. She's gotten inside their OODA loop. So much the better. I want to guard against being overly optimistic, but I can't help thinking that the whole Obama narrative (mythology?) is beginning to unravel, and that we're seeing the beginning of the end of Obama the electable candidate. I know the press will attack, probably more forcefully than ever, but their efforts will be increasingly counterproductive, and will even further alienate voters.
There are a lot of Sarah Palins in our town. We know what to make of them here, though. They're our wives, our friends, wives, and our daughters.
Great.
September 15, 2008.
S TATE POLLS
Posted at 7:42 p.m. ET
There are some new, fascinating state polls out today, mostly from Rasmussen. They cover critical states.
Earlier we reported on a new poll showing Obama up only five points in passionately Democratic New York State. If that trend continues, Obama will have to devote resources to the state, and, on bended knee, ask New York Senator Hillary Clinton to take care of business. I'd love to be there.
Rasmussen reports Pennsylvania tied, 47-47. If even approximately true, that is good news for Senator McCain. If he can take Pennsylvania, he probably will win the election.
Rasmussen has McCain ahead 48-45 in Ohio, a traditional battleground state. It's hard to see how McCain can win without Ohio. A Survey USA poll in Ohio has McCain up four.
Rasmussen reports McCain up five in Florida. Here McCain seems to be pulling away.
Rasmussen has the race tied in Virginia. A Survey USA poll has Obama up four. This is a problematical state that McCain almost has to carry to win. It hasn't voted Democratic since 1964, but Obama has heavy support in the state's large African-American community and in some of the areas hugging Washington, D.C. Watch Virginia very closely.
Rasmussen has McCain up two in Colorado. Colorado is another critical state, one that can decide the election. If McCain can pull it out, it's a big step forward.
State polls are important not only in indicating the direction of the race, but in determining where candidates put financial resources. McCain is being forced to run a major campaign in traditionally Republican Virginia, but Obama may have to run major campaigns in traditionally Democratic New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where his leads, if any, are slim.
October is two weeks away. Then we'll wonder about an October surprise.
September 15, 2008. Permalink 
SCARY UPDATE AT 6:07 P.M. ET: Drudge is running this photo of an Obama 
headquarters at his site today. Please notice the huge drawing of Obama. That is just not the kind of image we use in democratic societies. It has a frightening, totalitarian quality about it, and this is not the first time we've seen something like it in the Obama campaign. There were large, reddish images of Obama employed during his primary fight against Hillary Clinton.
It is surprising that no one in Obama's national headquarters is smart enough, or savvy enough, to realize how images like this play with the great majority of Americans. We think of ourselves as the masters of our politicians, not the reverse. This image sends the message, "I am your supreme leader." It's chilling, but I'm afraid it's the kind of thing that many academics, and many journalists, simply will dismiss as "a cultural expression." Not my culture, friend.
UPDATE AT 4:14 P.M. ET: The stock market ended its day 500 points lower, the worst point drop in seven years. However, the key will be the rest of the week. Often, these drops are followed by bargain hunters rushing in. Don't panic.
NOTE AT 2:48 P.M. ET: Amplifying our 1:35 update, just below, the AP has a story putting the Virginia race in somewhat better perspective. It turns out that most recent polls have favored McCain in the state - CNN has him up six - and even the Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, feels Obama is the underdog. However, balancing that, the state has been moving steadily left over the years, a trend fueled by the areas around Washington, D.C. (naturally), which have become trendy and chic. But McCain must win this state to have a serious chance of prevailing.
UPDATE AT 1:35 P.M. ET: A new state poll provides some sobering news. Survey USA has Obama up four in Virginia. The RCP electoral map, with leaners included, gives Virginia to McCain, and, with that, Obama still wins. McCain must have Virginia, or he will need two additional states of equivalent size. The methodology used by Survey USA is a bit sloppy, as only 817 of the 900 adults polled were registered, and only 732 were considered likely voters. Likely voters tend to lean more toward McCain.
A Suffolk University poll has McCain up four in Ohio, which is good, but not unexpected.
Very tough fight, but at least McCain/Palin is fighting. They must fight both the Democrats and the press.
TRACKERS
Posted at 1:25 p.m. ET
Both our standard trackers are out today, and both show the same thing: McCain is up two over Obama in the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. If anything, Obama may have gained just a bit in the last five days or so, but McCain's position, as Gallup notes, is slightly better than before the two conventions.
However, it is no time for cockiness on the McCain side. This can g o either way, unexpected events can intervene, and the Obama camp is now beginning a major counterattack.
One thing that does appear to be true, however, is that Sarah Palin's sit-down with Charlie Gibson did not hurt the McCain campaign. I don't think it helped either.
Some important state polls will be released by Rasmussen later today. This is a state-by-state contest, and the electoral map remains difficult for our side.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
BULLETIN AT 1:14 P.M. ET: In line with our story, "If He Can Make it There...," below, a Siena Research Institute poll just released has Obama leading McCain by only five points in heavily Democratic New York State. This is down from an 18-point lead in June, and an eight-point lead last month. This is Hillary Clinton's home state.
There are, as we reported earlier, apparently private polls that confirm the closeness of the race in New York, according to respected New York political reporter Fred Dicker.
McCain hasn't put resources into New York. If he does, he might force Obama to do the same, and Obama is already spread thin.
UPDATE AT 9:58 A.M. ET: From The New York Times: After more than six months in triple-digit territory, oil prices dropped sharply, falling under the symbolic $100-a-barrel threshold as financial woes raised concerns about slowing oil demand.
COMMENT: The good news is that this could result in lower gas-at-the-pump prices before election day.
UPDATE AT 9:34 A.M. ET: The first tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen has McCain up by two, 49-47. Yeste rday he had him up by three. This is a statistically insignificant change. The McCain bounce is still there.
Some important state polls will be released this afternoon. I suspect they will contain the significant polling news of the day.
UPDATE AT 8:37 A.M. ET: CHICAGO (AP) - Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama said Monday the upheaval on Wall Street was "the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression" and blamed it on policies that he said Republican rival John McCain supports. "This country can't afford another four years of this failed philosophy," Obama said after the shock-wave announcements that financial giant Lehman Brothers was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while titan Merrill Lynch was being bought by Bank of America for about $50 billion.
COMMENT: This comes at a time when that very Wall Street is sending unprecedent amounts of money to the Democratic campaign. And I don't recall any previous interest by Obama in Wall Street goings on.
WATCH
Posted at 7:12 a.m. ET
We are entering a critical period. Lehman Brothers, one of the great Wall Street firms, is filing for bankruptcy. A.I.G., the insurance giant, is in serious trouble. An AFP news report says, "The United States is mired in a 'once-in-a century' financial crisis which is now more than likely to spark a recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said Sunday."
At the same time, there is serious military action along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. An exclusive Urgent Agenda source writes us:
Afghans tend to wonder out loud, how are the Taliban suddenly so sophisticated? Couple that with our increased willingness to attack across the border and you get the picture. Powerful forces in Pakistan, both official and informal,
have been causing misery across the border. Until this is solved, we
will face the same problems year after year.
The "increased willingness" is the key. Clearly, President Bush has made a decision to permit some attacks across the border, possibly in the hope of getting Osama bin Laden. Will there be an October surprise?
And we are in the midst of one of the most critical elections in our history, where the differences between the candidates is stark. Barack Obama was expected by many, even three weeks ago, to be a shoo-in in this Democratic year. Now there has been a reversal. He must fight for every vote, and the possibility of his losing grows greater with the release of every poll. The new pressure is showing in his demeanor, his once-sure style. The man, at times, seems incapable of standing up under pressure as he competes for the highest-pressure job in the world. A highly qualified Urgent Agenda source tells us:
My observations of him on TV/Web reveal him to be approaching a breaking point. He's in a place he's never been before, doesn't like it and truly doesn't know how to cope. I expect a major explosion, in public within the next 2 weeks. It has to happen.
We stress that this is an observation and an opinion, but the Obama campaign is clearly rattled and sounding desperate. The descent yesterday into a coordinated attack on McCain, citing his age and previous bouts with skin cancer, is an indicator.
"Isn't it a time?" the leftist folk singers used to sing. Yes, it is. Watch all these things closely in the weeks ahead. This week, watch the tracking polls to see if the McCain bounce, intact thus far, continues to hold. Watch Sarah Palin. Will the glow wear off, or will she soar further, helped by a public resentful of the relentless press assault. We are halfway through September. October may shape up as one of the most critical months in modern American history.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
IF HE CAN MAKE IT THERE...
Posted at 7:10 a.m. ET
Fred Dicker, of The New York Post, is one of the most respected journalists covering New York State politics. New York has been considered in the bag for Obama. But as Dicker writes today, there are private poll numbers being circulated. Not so fast, Barack:
BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.
I remind you that New York is Hillary Clinton's state. I do not see her rushing to the rescue. Do you?
The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
I'm writing this from White Plains, New York. As I look out the window, I have a new respect for my fellow New Yorkers. Maybe they're not quite the wild-eyed liberals I'd thought.
"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.
From his mouth to...
The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.
The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.
Hillary must be in Heaven.
And there's topping on the cake:
The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.
That was among likely voters, the best test.
The findings of the private polls will be tested by a series of public polls to be released over the next two weeks - starting with a Siena College survey of likely voters due out today.
And we will be watching and reporting. Such fun.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2008
NOTE AT 6:45 P.M. ET: Just a word about overconfidence. Senator McCain and Governor Palin are making progress. That progress may last, or not. But a look at the Real Clear Politics electoral map, , which includes leaners, shows how difficult McCain's task is. The map shows Obama winning with 273 electoral votes, McCain with 265, with 270 needed to win. McCain would have to hold onto every single state awarded to him on this map, and then pick up at least one other state to defeat Obama.
Now look at the Obama states, in blue. Every one of them is a mountain for McCain, some, like California and New York, unclimbable. Once solid-GOP N ew England is now solid for the Dems. There may be a shot in Colorado, and another in Minnesota, although I'd doubt the latter. Even Michigan may come into play, but it would take a huge effort. New Hampshire is a very-much outside shot, as is Pennsylvania.
So, no overconfidence. This is a fight to the finish, and must be waged every day, without mistakes. It can be done, but we're not there yet.
UPDATE AT 6:18 P.M. ET: Hmm, do we have some message coordination here? Please note this quote from major California Democratic power Willie Brown, in The San Francisco Chronicle, and compare it with our last update, at 5:56 p.m.:
The Democrats have got to get to the core of this new campaign. It's not a pretty thought, but somehow Democrats must plant in voters' minds that, given McCain's age and his health history, he might not make it through the term if he's elected.
Even if McCain does make it through a term, it's not likely he'll seek re-election and she will be the natural successor.
In other words, Sarah Palin may indeed be president someday.
This is the new politics of Barack Obama? Sounds like the old politics of the Chicago machine.
UPDATE AT 5:56 P.M. ET: Senator Claire McCaskill, Democrat of Missouri, went after John McCain on ABC's "This Week" today over age and cancer:
When Stephanopoulos asked her it was fair to raise McCain's age, McCaskill doubled-down and mentioned his past skin cancer, saying, "I think what we're talking about is a reality. Other people talk about his melanoma. We're talking about a reality here that we have to face. This is someone who's going to be one heartbeat away from the presidency. All of us know it. I just think that it's the facts, George, and that's something that we need to start focusing on, are the facts, instead of distortions and lies."
Real class. I want a written guarantee from the Obama campaign that Obama will survive the next four years. I want that certified. I want that notarized. Then we'll discuss McCain's health.
Yuch.
TRUTH
Posted at 2:42 p.m. ET
Dems are having a field day today quoting Karl Rove as saying the McCain campaign is stretching the truth. Trouble is, in saying it, they're stretching the truth. From The Politico::
It’s not every day that Democrats embrace the wisdom of Karl Rove, but the Barack Obama campaign is e-mailing around a comment he made to Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday.”
With the commercials of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) under attack for falsehoods, Rove said that both sides in the presidential race have “gone one step too far” — in McCain’s case, by “attributing to Obama things that are … beyond the 100 percent truth test.”
"When Karl Rove is questioning the legitimacy of your dishonest tactics, you really need to take a moment of self-reflection," Obama spokesman Hari Sevugan said when the campaign e-mailed the quote to reporters for the second time in 80 minutes.
So expect to hear surrogates for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) out on the airwaves saying, “EVEN Karl Rove. …”
But he said it about both campaigns.
The exact transcript of Rove's remarks, spoken on Fox:
WALLACE: Do you have any problem with what McCain is doing by, for instance, saying — which a lot of people thought was kind of made up — that Obama was smearing Palin?
ROVE: Well, first of all, I do think that the lipstick remark was an inappropriate — and maybe it was unconscious, but it was a deliberate slap at Gov. Palin.
The only time this word has intruded in recent months in the campaign was in her self-deprecating remark at the convention. So for him to use the lipstick remark less than two weeks after she used it struck me as too much of a coincidence not to have been a deliberate attack.
But, look, both campaigns are making a mistake, and that is they are taking whatever their attacks are and going one step too far. We saw this this week, for example, in the Obama ad where he makes the point, a legitimate point, that John McCain came to the United States Congress in 1982 and that he has been a longtime Washington insider.
But they then say he doesn't even know how to use a — you know, doesn't send e-mail. Well, this is because his war injuries keep him from being able to use a keyboard. He can't type. You know, it's like saying he can't do jumping jacks.
Well, there's a reason why he can't raise his arms above his head. There's a reason why he doesn't have the nimbleness in his fingers.
WALLACE: All right, and for fair game, what is McCain doing that goes a step too far?
ROVE: Well, McCain has gone in some of his ads — similarly gone one step too far, and sort of attributing to Obama things that are, you know, beyond the 100 percent truth test.
They don't need to attack each other in this way. They have legitimate points to make about each other.
Now, Team McCain, get in front of this story. Correct any misstatements, explain others that were misunderstood, then demand - giving a list of particulars - that the Obama side do the same. The McCain campaign has, as I've written, gotten sloppy with facts. The Obama campaign simply ignores them. McCain can turn this negative into a positive.
September 14, 2008. Permalink
TRACKERS
Posted at 1:37 p.m. ET
Both our standard trackers are now out, and both show exactly the same result as yesterday. Rasmussen - McCain up three. Gallup - McCain up two. The Hotline tracker has not yet been published.
We're now 10 days out from the GOP convention, and McCain's lead, although small, still holds. The press attempts to destroy Palin, lead by The New York Times, haven't worked, but the McCain campaign must be on guard against foolish mistakes, exaggerations or misstatements that feed the Palin-hating beast. (Palin said that Alaska provides 20 percent of the nation's energy. That turns out to be way off, but she may have meant it in a different context. Once challenged, she's got to explain. Don't leave questions out there.)
While the momentum was with McCain coming out of his convention, that momentum has now stopped, and we're settling into the familiar pattern of a close race, although now it's McCain holding the edge. This can still go either way, and an unpredictable event can throw out all current figures.
September 14, 2008. Permalink
BULLETIN AT 11:04 A.M. ET: We're alerted by John Hindreraker at Power Line to a potentially major political development: The presidential race in Minnesota, normally a Democratic state, is tied. The Star-Tribune poll shows McCain and Obama at 45 percent each, in a poll of likely voters. A May poll showed Obama 13 points ahead.
COMMENT: If Minnesota is in serious play, Obama is in serious trouble. It means he'll have to devote resources in the state that should have gone elsewhere. But let's be cautious and see what Minnesota polls say in coming weeks.
UPDATE AT 9:42 A.M. ET: First tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen reports that, for the third day running, McCain is up three. The race stands at 50-47. Two thirds of the polling for today was conducted after Charlie Gibson's first interview with Sarah Palin aired. There apparently was no damage, at least not in this poll.
THE WHY
Posted at 8:25 a.m. ET
The general consensus among political writers is that McCain is slightly ahead. The Politico has looked at the situation and provided five reasons why. I think this is a reasonable, if tentative analysis. A week is a lifetime in politics, and things can change:
John McCain’s surge in the polls comes even as Barack Obama has inherited the most favorable Democratic environment since the Watergate era—an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and a flagging economy.
Suddenly, though, Democrats have found themselves in a world turned upside down, where Republicans have the momentum from running on change—and the latest wunderkind of presidential politics.
Below are five trends showing up in polling that help explain the change.
McCain as change agent.
Eight in ten Americans say they believe the country is on the wrong track. Obama has built his campaign on the perception that he is both the personification of change and the man to enact it.
Despite a member of his party in the White House and his decades in D.C., recent polling shows that McCain has managed to successfully portray himself as a change agent, and erode Obama’s brand in the process.
The center shifts. Independents move to McCain.
Independent voters, and particularly white independent men, have leaned Republican in presidential races since 1980. But before the Republican convention, Galllup polling showed just 40 percent of independents favoring McCain.
Post convention, that rose to 52 percent—and the increase in support was slightly greater among men than among women, which appears to undercut the idea that Palin has benefited the ticket by drawing women to it.
The economic gap narrows.
James Carville, who coined the catchphrase “the economy, stupid” in 1992 while working as a strategist for Bill Clinton, frets that Obama is losing his ownership of the issue that has become voters’ foremost concern in recent months.“I noticed the tightening on the economy,” Carville said. “And if it stays that way, I would be damn worried.”
Palin narrows the enthusiasm gap.
The Republican base, once disenchanted, has returned with a vengeance since McCain’s surprise pick of the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.
This week’s CBS News poll found that 53 percent of Obama voters said they were “enthusiastic” about Obama, up five points since before his party’s convention, and still better than the 42 percent of McCain supports who feel the same way. McCain’s support though is up 18 points since selecting Palin.
The NBC-Wall Street Journal poll found that only 12 percent of McCain’s supporters were “excited to be voting” for him in early August. This week 34 percent said they were excited—nearly a three-fold increase.
Democrat voter ID edge dulls.
The week before the Republican convention, just 39 percent of voters said they leaned toward or identified themselves as Republicans. Following the convention, that number rose dramatically to 47 percent, Meanwhile the percentage of voters leaning toward or identifying themselves as Democrats dropped from 53 to 47 percent. Gallup notes that party ID shifts are not unusual after a convention.
Gallup also now reports that the double-digit Democratic lead among voters asked which party they’d generically prefer to control Congress has disappeared, and the two parties are now effectively tied.
What is significant, I think, is that all this is happening during the most relentless press assault on a candidate I've seen since the assault on Barry Goldwater in 1964. The continuing attack on Sarah Palin either isn't working, or is creating a backlash.
McCain's gains can, of course, be reversed. But there's an old political saying that you can't beat somebody with nobody, and Barack Obama is quickly turning into a nobody. The novelty has worn off, his attacks on McCain have taken on a desperate quality, and many of his allies among the bloggers, journalists and ladies of "The View" aren't doing him any good with their wild statements.
One question is whether Sarah Palin's novelty will wear off as well. It might if she does more of these overly familiar sit-downs.
And the McCain campaign must be careful. Its aggressiveness and daring have worked. But a certain sloppiness about facts and claims is creeping into its rhetoric. Eventually, the public may react if there are too many exaggerations or botched statistics. The press will not investigate Obama's claims and will not examine his background the way they've examined Palin's. There's no help available there. The McCain campaign has to be almost bulletproof to continue upward.
September 14, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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