William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2008
UPDATE AT 11:03 P.M. ET: More brilliance from Hollywood, via NewsBusters: Samuel L. Jackson came on Tuesday's edition of "Live With Regis and Kelly" to promote his latest movie, Lakeview Terrace, but couldn't resist getting in a plug for Barack Obama. The Pulp Fiction star told Regis Philbin that when he was at the Deauville Film Festival in France, nobody really wanted to talk showbiz, instead the festival goers asked him about the upcoming election: "They're all hoping that we come into the world community by electing, you know, Barack they say. So we hope so."
COMMENT: Memo to Samuel L. Jackson: If the United States wasn't already in the "world community," those Frenchmen you spoke with in France would be speaking German.
UPDATE AT 10:58 P.M. ET: From Jake Tapper, ABC News: In Golden, Colo., today, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., took credit for the stimulus package that passed earlier this year. "In January, I outlined a plan to help revive our faltering economy," Obama said, "which formed the basis for a bipartisan stimulus package that passed the Congress."
Is that true?
Democrats on Capitol Hill who support Obama say no.
Wanting Obama to win, however, none will say so on the record.
COMMENT: At least Tapper caught this. Let's see if the others in the MSM will hold Obama accountable for a claim he made himself, and which is plainly false. Don't hold your breath. Nothing to see here, folks. Just move along.
THE McCAIN THEY LOVED
Posted at 7:35 p.m. ET
Rich Lowry has a perceptive piece on the press and John McCain, and the divorce between them. I think Lowry has a point - the press loved the conservative McCain when they thought he was going to lose. Now that he's got a solid shot, other factors intervene:
A crucial turning point in the presidential race came when the McCain campaign ended its candidate's habitual informal interactions with the press. The area of the McCain campaign plane where a couch had been installed so the Arizonian could hold court with journalists was cut off with a dark curtain, marking the end of an era.
Since 2000, John McCain had thrived on his irrepressible chattiness with the press, talking about anything reporters wanted for as long as they would listen. The press loved the access and avoided "gotcha" coverage, letting McCain explain any seeming gaffes. The arrangement worked beautifully for both sides -- until McCain became the Republican presidential nominee.
Yeah. I think a lot of people figured out what was happening.
The enduring scandal of the McCain campaign is that it wants to win. The press had hoped for a harmless, nostalgic loser like Bob Dole in 1996.
This man McCain - he didn't know his place. Just an old Navy guy; never went to Harvard.
The press turned on McCain with a vengeance as soon as he mocked Barack Obama as a celebrity. Its mood grew still more foul when the McCain campaign took offense at Obama's "lipstick on a pig" jab...
...The lipstick controversy indeed represented a silly bit of grievance-mongering. But had the Obama camp's tendentious interpretation of Bill Clinton's "fairy tale" put-down as a racial slight generated similar push-back from the media? Had Obama's ridiculous depiction of Geraldine Ferraro as a quasi-racist? Had Obama's repeated contention -- with no evidence -- that Republicans were attacking him for looking different?
Go at it, Rich. You're onto something here.
When Obama distorted a McCain remark about staying in Iraq for 100 years -- if we were taking no casualties -- into an endorsement of endless war, the media generally tsk-tsked that McCain should be more careful about what he says. Obama just ran an ad saying McCain would cut education funding -- with no evidence.
But how can the media question the campaign of a saint?
What has truly driven the media batty is McCain's selection of Sarah Palin. The first days after her announcement brought gross misreporting and personal smears; followed by a Charlie Gibson interview during which the newscaster appeared disgusted that he even had to talk to such a lowly and unworthy personage; followed by front-page Washington Post and New York Times reports on her tenure in Alaska that were so hostile they left it a mystery why she has an 86 percent approval rating as governor.
But that would mean respecting the views of the common folk. And, after all, what kind of civilized wine drinker and tofu eater would live in Alaska? Really.
Palin will forever be a target. A pro-life, pro-gun evangelical with five kids, Palin has made the election even more into a culture war than it was before...
...Whatever affection they still have for McCain is now expressed in self-interested yearning: Where is the McCain of old, the one who could be reliably counted on to lose?
Ouch. Very good. And very true. And don't forget the careerism that goes with this. You're not going to get very far in the MSM, which is run by the sixties crowd, by being pro-McCain. For too many in the media, an election campaign is about them, not about the presidency. It's a far fall from the time, decades ago, when the press refused to photograph FDR in a wheelchair because it was disrespectful to his office. At least then the media knew who the people had elected.
September 16, 2008. Permalink 
UPDATE AT 7:08 P.M. ET: John McCain on Obama's fundraising, via The Politico:
John McCain used an appearance before a blue-collar crowd near Youngstown, Ohio, to take a class-tinged shot at Barack Obama tonight.
"He talks about siding with the people just before he flew off for a fundraiser in Hollywood with Barbra Streisand and his celebrity friends" McCain said of his rival. "Let me tell you, my friends, there's no place I'd rather be than right here with the working men and women of Ohio."
McCain used the line as his close at an airport hangar rally, drawing loud applause.
Great line. Now milk it, John, and get your staff re-disciplined and back on message. Those Streisand tickets are going for $28,000 apiece. That's elitism defined. Make yourself the maverick, populist candidate, with Sarah, and picture Obama as the out-of-touch darling of Beverly Hills and Aspen. This is hardball politics, not ping-pong.
UPDATE AT 5:07 P.M. ET: A new Rasmussen poll in New York State, just published, completely contradicts the respected Siena College poll published yesterday. That had Obama up by only five in new York. Rasmussen has Obama up 13, which is more typical of the pattern of the state. In 2004, Kerry defeated Bush in New York by almost 20 points.
COMMENT: So how do we explain the Siena poll? And how do we explain the story from ace political reporter Fred Dicker that the parties' private polls confirm that the race is close? I don't know, but something is wrong with the polling somewhere. Please note, though, that Siena began its polling on Monday, September 8th, right after the GOP convention. Rasmussen did all his polling yesterday. McCain has clearly been slipping a bit over the past week. That may explain some, but not all, of the discrepancy.
UPDATE AT 4:38 P.M. ET: From The Chicago Tribune: Chicago radio station WGN-AM is again coming under attack from the presidential campaign of Sen. Barack Obama for offering airtime to a controversial author. It is the second time in recent weeks the station has been the target of an "Obama Action Wire" alert to supporters of the Illinois Democrat. Monday night's target was David Freddoso, who the campaign said was scheduled to be on the station from 9 p.m. to 11 p.m. Chicago time. "The author of the latest anti-Barack hit book is appearing on WGN Radio in the Chicagoland market tonight, and your help is urgently needed to make sure his baseless lies don't gain credibility," an e-mail sent Monday evening to Obama supporters reads.
COMMENT: So much for freedom of speech. Given the passion of the left for reinstatement of the so-called "fairness doctrine," this may just be a warmup for what's coming - an attempt to get conservatives off the air.
NOTE AT 3:18 P.M. ET: Just an alert to readers. I've been noticing several pro-Obama articles recently by one Cass Sunstein, a professor of law at Harvard, and formerly a professor at the University of Chicago and a colleague there of Barack Obama's. Please note, for your background, that Sunstein is also Mr. Samantha Power. He recently married Power, who was forced to resign from the Obama campaign after calling Hillary Clinton a "monster." You can make your own judgments on the couple, but i.d. boxes on Sunstein leave out his Power connection.
TRACKERS
Posted at 2:03 p.m. ET
Both our standard trackers are now out, and both tell the same story - McCain up by one in both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls, his lead steadily deteriorating. I would not be shocked to see Obama in the lead again by the end of the week.
And Obama has just jumped into a four-point lead in the Hotline daily tracker.
We'd said some days ago that the results in the middle of this week would tell us whether the McCain convention bounce lasts. Actually, he's held up reasonably well. He's still ahead in two of the three trackers, but the bounce has a bit less bounce in it.
We've now seen a trend over four or five days. The shock to the economy from Wall Street, and the continued destruction of Sarah Pal in by the media, cannot help McCain.
Once again we recall the old adage that a week is a lifetime in politics. The McCain people must discipline their campaign, get on their economic message, keep their ads accurate, and try to stop the destruction of Sarah.
Last week, Mark Penn, a Clinton consultant, said that the media is the big loser in this campaign because of its behavior. Yes, it's a loser if we're talking about credibility. It's a winner if it elects its sixties dream - Barack Obama. Credibility isn't the media's thing anymore. It's filled with leftists who want to "make a difference." They may make that difference.
Very tough fight ahead. Dead even, but momentum is starting to shift back to Obama.
September 16, 2008. Permalink
NOTE AT 10:26 A.M. ET: In the "you can't make this stuff up" department: There's a piece in The ultra-left Nation magazine about Obama's youth movement. It's written by a guy named Peter Dreier. The subhead over the article reads:
Peter Dreier's 11-year-old twin daughters, Amelia and Sarah, are volunteering for the Obama Campaign.
And you know, I'm sure both of them know what the Bush Doctrine is.
UPDATE AT 9:55 A.M. ET: The first tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen reports McCain with a one-point lead. He was up two yesterday, three the day before. We're seeing the same pattern here as with the Gallup tracker - McCain is beginning to lose support. It's a small loss so far, and may merely reflect the end of his convention bounce. But trouble in the economy and the relentless press assault against Sarah Palin may also have their impact.
Gallup also had McCain up two yesterday, down from five only days earlier. We await the new Gallup poll this afternoon.
This is a very critical moment. If Obama pulls back into the lead, the psychological effect on the McCain campaign can be devastating. The press riot against Sarah Palin will only intensify, as the rioters will feel it's working. Being the bullies they are, they will kick her while she's down. Demoralization in the McCain camp could set in.
We have written here for some time that press bias could decide this election because it is the worst we've ever seen. We can only hope that the good sense of the American people can see past the bigotry, safeguard the future of their country.
JERSEY BLUES
Posted at 7:58 a.m. ET
There may be some hoopla today over some poll results in New Jersey. I want to inject a cautionary note. Two new polls show a tightening race in the heavily Democratic state.
TRENTON, N.J. - Two presidential race polls out Tuesday indicate Republican John McCain has cut into Barack Obama's lead in New Jersey.
According to a Quinnipiac University poll, McCain has narrowed his 10-point gap of a month ago to just 3 percentage points among likely voters, with 48 percent saying they favor Obama to 45 percent supporting McCain.
A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Obama's lead at 8 percentage points among likely voters, down from 14 points in July. In the most recent poll, Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 41 percent, with McCain having picked up 5 percent of undecided voters since the July poll.
That averages out to about a five-point Obama lead among likelies. Now, that's great progress for McCain, and I hope it continues. If McCain can take New Jersey, he probably takes the election, rather easily.
The problem is, we've been here before, as the director of one of the polls, Patrick Murray, cautions:
Murray said Republican momentum picked up in September in New Jersey typically wanes before Election Day.
During the last election campaign in 2004, there was also excitement, based on September poll results, that New Jersey would slip into the Republican column. But, on election day, it was right back where it normally is - solidly Democratic. So take these results with two caution pills. Watch the trends. If the trends continue relentlessly in McCain's direction, the end result this time may be an upset. But don't be shocked if you see normalcy returning in October.
One great thing about the McCain surge in states like New Jersey and New York is that it forces Obama to put resources into places that previously were considered safe. His campaign does not seem to do well under pressure, and this just increases that pressure.
September 16, 2008. Permalink
WHO CARES?
Posted at 8:15 a.m. ET
He's back. I thought he had retired, or gone away, or drifted off to some golf course, but Colin Powell insists on hanging around. And now he's teasing us about his choice for president, as if, based on his statements, we should have any doubt. This is important only because, in a very tight race, a Powell endorsement at the last minute might shift a couple of hundred thousand votes, some of them possibly in crucial places.
I have never been a Powell fan. I think that his is one of the more overrated careers in our recent history. Powell always struck me as the consummate bureaucrat, a man who could drift from job to job without leaving any footprints. His tenure as secretary of state was particularly undistinguished. He did almost no traveling, met almost no foreign leaders unless they were passing through, and never seemed passionate about anything. His statements after 9/11 were those of a man who'd adapted to the State Department view of the world. He referred to the "events of September 11th," a sanitized way of describing attacks that killed 3,000 of his countrymen. I don't recall his ever visiting the attack site in his native city of New York. His name is on no policy following that horrible day. He seemed to spend most of his time being blameless.
Now he returns, as CNN reports:
CNN) — Former Bush Secretary of State Colin Powell said Monday that he has not yet decided which candidate to back in this year’s presidential race.
The election of an African-American president “would be electrifying,” Powell told a George Washington University audience, “but at the same time [I have to] make a judgment here on which would be best for America."
Balancing act. He then says:
“I have been watching both individuals, I know them both extremely well, and I have not decided who I am going to vote for. And I'm interested to see what the debates are going to be like because we have to get off of this ‘lipstick on a pig’ stuff and get into issues,” he said.
He knows both candidates extremely well? How well could he know Obama, a recent arrival to fame? And apparently the general doesn't care for the tone of the campaign. Not good enough for him. In fact, issues have been widely discussed.
Earlier this year, Powell told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that he was weighing an endorsement of a Democrat or independent candidate. “I am keeping my options open at the moment,” said Powell.
“I have voted for members of both parties in the course of my adult life. And as I said earlier, I will vote for the candidate I think can do the best job for America, whether that candidate is a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent,” he added.
Okay, let's wave that flag. But his career was made possible by Republicans, although he seemed to have a snobbish view of the greatest of them, Ronald Reagan. When President Reagan proposed saying publicly to the Soviet leader, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall," it was reported that Powell tried to talk him out of it. Why take a stand? Why do stuff when you can just be there?
Powell also offered praise for Obama, calling him an “exciting person on the political stage.
“He has energized a lot of people in America,” said Powell, who briefly weighed his own run for the White House in the mid-1990s. “He has energized a lot of people around the world. And so I think he is worth listening to and seeing what he stands for.”
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I love words like "energized." Obama has energized people around the world? What precisely are they doing?
The kicker:
Another source close to Powell said that he has known McCain for more than three decades “and likes him, and is looking for a reason to vote for him. He hasn't found it yet."
He's going to endorse Obama, probably as a way of getting back at people who eased him out of the Bush administration. I don't recall McCain begging Bush to let Powell stay. I'm hoping the American people will discount the endorsement, but, as I said, a critical mass might be influenced. Let's hope McCain is ahead by enough to negate any effect.
September 16, 2008. Permalink
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2008
NOTE AT 10:23 P.M. ET: I thought I'd share with you a wonderful letter from reader John Pranikoff. I think it contains keen insights into the competing cultures within our country. As you read it you'll see why I printed it:
This guy is for Sarah Palin. When I look at her I see a little bit younger version of my wife.
Deb has always had a lot of disdain for the academic feminists, the Hillary crowd. Whiners making excuses for themselves. Instead of spewing rhetoric, she accomplished. As an assistant district attorney in Manhattan with over 30 homicide trials to her credit (record 32-1), she was in a male-dominated good-old-boy profession (at least it was when she started in 1980), and she did the old boys one better. My admiration for her should be obvious, just as I admired the women I worked with on Wall Street. Trading is (or was) a macho, male-dominated business, and I admired the women who made it in that world simply by virtue of their ability.
For the last 12 years we've lived in a small town in Montana, and the big city is becoming sort of a distant memory. I guess that means we're provincial and out of touch. But, seriously, having lived in both Sarah Palin's and Barack Obama's worlds (Yale undergrad, Columbia grad school) I think I have a fair amount of perspective on this clash of cultures. I firmly believe that the folks who are narrow, insular, and out of touch with this country are the ones who believe L.A., New York, and other select places on the coasts are the only patches of civilization in this country.
Here we cling to guns and religion, and my wife hunts (several mounts of deer she's got adorn our walls), fishes, and, oh, by the way, has a small-town law practice, too. She clings to guns so much that she's just filed a Second Amendment case in federal court, and is looking forward to arguing it in front of the judge. I feel sorry for the assistant US attorney who's assigned to the case.
The elitists back east don't know what to make of conservative western women, and I agree with you - they are totally baffled by Sarah Palin, and are at a strategic disadvantage. She's gotten inside their OODA loop. So much the better. I want to guard against being overly optimistic, but I can't help thinking that the whole Obama narrative (mythology?) is beginning to unravel, and that we're seeing the beginning of the end of Obama the electable candidate. I know the press will attack, probably more forcefully than ever, but their efforts will be increasingly counterproductive, and will even further alienate voters.
There are a lot of Sarah Palins in our town. We know what to make of them here, though. They're our wives, our friends, wives, and our daughters.
Great.
September 15, 2008.
STATE POLLS
Posted at 7:42 p.m. ET
There are some new, fascinating state polls out today, mostly from Rasmussen. They cover critical states.
Earlier we reported on a new poll showing Obama up only five points in passionately Democratic New York State. If that trend continues, Obama will have to devote resources to the state, and, on bended knee, ask New York Senator Hillary Clinton to take care of business. I'd love to be there.
Rasmussen reports Pennsylvania tied, 47-47. If even approximately true, that is good news for Senator McCain. If he can take Pennsylvania, he probably will win the election.
Rasmussen has McCain ahead 48-45 in Ohio, a traditional battleground state. It's hard to see how McCain can win without Ohio. A Survey USA poll in Ohio has McCain up four.
Rasmussen reports McCain up five in Florida. Here McCain seems to be pulling away.
Rasmussen has the race tied in Virginia. A Survey USA poll has Obama up four. This is a problematical state that McCain almost has to carry to win. It hasn't voted Democratic since 1964, but Obama has heavy support in the state's large African-American community and in some of the areas hugging Washington, D.C. Watch Virginia very closely.
Rasmussen has McCain up two in Colorado. Colorado is another critical state, one that can decide the election. If McCain can pull it out, it's a big step forward.
State polls are important not only in indicating the direction of the race, but in determining where candidates put financial resources. McCain is being forced to run a major campaign in traditionally Republican Virginia, but Obama may have to run major campaigns in traditionally Democratic New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where his leads, if any, are slim.
October is two weeks away. Then we'll wonder about an October surprise.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
SCARY UPDATE AT 6:07 P.M. ET: Drudge is running this photo of an Obama 
headquarters at his site today. Please notice the huge drawing of Obama. That is just not the kind of image we use in democratic societies. It has a frightening, totalitarian quality about it, and this is not the first time we've seen something like it in the Obama campaign. There were large, reddish images of Obama employed during his primary fight against Hillary Clinton.
It is surprising that no one in Obama's national headquarters is smart enough, or savvy enough, to realize how images like this play with the great majority of Americans. We think of ourselves as the masters of our politicians, not the reverse. This image sends the message, "I am your supreme leader." It's chilling, but I'm afraid it's the kind of thing that many academics, and many journalists, simply will dismiss as "a cultural expression." Not my culture, friend.
UPDATE AT 4:14 P.M. ET: The stock market ended its day 500 points lower, the worst point drop in seven years. However, the key will be the rest of the week. Often, these drops are followed by bargain hunters rushing in. Don't panic.
NOTE AT 2:48 P.M. ET: Amplifying our 1:35 update, just below, the AP has a story putting the Virginia race in somewhat better perspective. It turns out that most recent polls have favored McCain in the state - CNN has him up six - and even the Democratic governor, Tim Kaine, feels Obama is the underdog. However, balancing that, the state has been moving steadily left over the years, a trend fueled by the areas around Washington, D.C. (naturally), which have become trendy and chic. But McCain must win this state to have a serious chance of prevailing.
UPDATE AT 1:35 P.M. ET: A new state poll provides some sobering news. Survey USA has Obama up four in Virginia. The RCP electoral map, with leaners included, gives Virginia to McCain, and, with that, Obama still wins. McCain must have Virginia, or he will need two additional states of equivalent size. The methodology used by Survey USA is a bit sloppy, as only 817 of the 900 adults polled were registered, and only 732 were considered likely voters. Likely voters tend to lean more toward McCain.
A Suffolk University poll has McCain up four in Ohio, which is good, but not unexpected.
Very tough fight, but at least McCain/Palin is fighting. They must fight both the Democrats and the press.
TRACKERS
Posted at 1:25 p.m. ET
Both our standard trackers are out today, and both show the same thing: McCain is up two over Obama in the Rasmussen and Gallup polls. If anything, Obama may have gained just a bit in the last five days or so, but McCain's position, as Gallup notes, is slightly better than before the two conventions.
However, it is no time for cockiness on the McCain side. This can g o either way, unexpected events can intervene, and the Obama camp is now beginning a major counterattack.
One thing that does appear to be true, however, is that Sarah Palin's sit-down with Charlie Gibson did not hurt the McCain campaign. I don't think it helped either.
Some important state polls will be released by Rasmussen later today. This is a state-by-state contest, and the electoral map remains difficult for our side.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
BULLETIN AT 1:14 P.M. ET: In line with our story, "If He Can Make it There...," below, a Siena Research Institute poll just released has Obama leading McCain by only five points in heavily Democratic New York State. This is down from an 18-point lead in June, and an eight-point lead last month. This is Hillary Clinton's home state.
There are, as we reported earlier, apparently private polls that confirm the closeness of the race in New York, according to respected New York political reporter Fred Dicker.
McCain hasn't put resources into New York. If he does, he might force Obama to do the same, and Obama is already spread thin.
UPDATE AT 9:58 A.M. ET: From The New York Times: After more than six months in triple-digit territory, oil prices dropped sharply, falling under the symbolic $100-a-barrel threshold as financial woes raised concerns about slowing oil demand.
COMMENT: The good news is that this could result in lower gas-at-the-pump prices before election day.
UPDATE AT 9:34 A.M. ET: The first tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen has McCain up by two, 49-47. Yeste rday he had him up by three. This is a statistically insignificant change. The McCain bounce is still there.
Some important state polls will be released this afternoon. I suspect they will contain the significant polling news of the day.
UPDATE AT 8:37 A.M. ET: CHICAGO (AP) - Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama said Monday the upheaval on Wall Street was "the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression" and blamed it on policies that he said Republican rival John McCain supports. "This country can't afford another four years of this failed philosophy," Obama said after the shock-wave announcements that financial giant Lehman Brothers was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy while titan Merrill Lynch was being bought by Bank of America for about $50 billion.
COMMENT: This comes at a time when that very Wall Street is sending unprecedent amounts of money to the Democratic campaign. And I don't recall any previous interest by Obama in Wall Street goings on.
WATCH
Posted at 7:12 a.m. ET
We are entering a critical period. Lehman Brothers, one of the great Wall Street firms, is filing for bankruptcy. A.I.G., the insurance giant, is in serious trouble. An AFP news report says, "The United States is mired in a 'once-in-a century' financial crisis which is now more than likely to spark a recession, former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said Sunday."
At the same time, there is serious military action along the Pakistan/Afghanistan border. An exclusive Urgent Agenda source writes us:
Afghans tend to wonder out loud, how are the Taliban suddenly so sophisticated? Couple that with our increased willingness to attack across the border and you get the picture. Powerful forces in Pakistan, both official and informal,
have been causing misery across the border. Until this is solved, we
will face the same problems year after year.
The "increased willingness" is the key. Clearly, President Bush has made a decision to permit some attacks across the border, possibly in the hope of getting Osama bin Laden. Will there be an October surprise?
And we are in the midst of one of the most critical elections in our history, where the differences between the candidates is stark. Barack Obama was expected by many, even three weeks ago, to be a shoo-in in this Democratic year. Now there has been a reversal. He must fight for every vote, and the possibility of his losing grows greater with the release of every poll. The new pressure is showing in his demeanor, his once-sure style. The man, at times, seems incapable of standing up under pressure as he competes for the highest-pressure job in the world. A highly qualified Urgent Agenda source tells us:
My observations of him on TV/Web reveal him to be approaching a breaking point. He's in a place he's never been before, doesn't like it and truly doesn't know how to cope. I expect a major explosion, in public within the next 2 weeks. It has to happen.
We stress that this is an observation and an opinion, but the Obama campaign is clearly rattled and sounding desperate. The descent yesterday into a coordinated attack on McCain, citing his age and previous bouts with skin cancer, is an indicator.
"Isn't it a time?" the leftist folk singers used to sing. Yes, it is. Watch all these things closely in the weeks ahead. This week, watch the tracking polls to see if the McCain bounce, intact thus far, continues to hold. Watch Sarah Palin. Will the glow wear off, or will she soar further, helped by a public resentful of the relentless press assault. We are halfway through September. October may shape up as one of the most critical months in modern American history.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
IF HE CAN MAKE IT THERE...
Posted at 7:10 a.m. ET
Fred Dicker, of The New York Post, is one of the most respected journalists covering New York State politics. New York has been considered in the bag for Obama. But as Dicker writes today, there are private poll numbers being circulated. Not so fast, Barack:
BOOSTED by the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate, Republican John McCain has experienced a surge of support among women in heavily Democratic New York state - where he has closed the gap with Barack Obama, new private polls show.
I remind you that New York is Hillary Clinton's state. I do not see her rushing to the rescue. Do you?
The internal Republican and Democratic polls, details of which were provided to The Post, have stunned members of both parties - and produced deep worries among Democrats.
One great concern for Democrats is that the data show a continuous movement toward the McCain-Palin ticket by women, a majority of whom traditionally favor Democrats.
I'm writing this from White Plains, New York. As I look out the window, I have a new respect for my fellow New Yorkers. Maybe they're not quite the wild-eyed liberals I'd thought.
"If it winds up being tight in New York, that means McCain wins the election nationally," said a prominent Democrat familiar with some of the polling data.
From his mouth to...
The private polls have consistently shown the Obama-Biden ticket still leading but with less than 50 percent of the vote in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by over 2.3 million voters.
The polls found McCain closing the gap with Obama during the past 10 days - in the wake of Palin's sensational GOP convention speech, Obama's crack that "You can put lipstick on a pig, but it's still a pig," and amid a swirling controversy over Palin's credentials to be vice president.
Hillary must be in Heaven.
And there's topping on the cake:
The polling data track the findings of a little-noticed Marist College poll of likely New Jersey voters late last week that found Obama barely ahead of McCain, 48 percent to 45 percent. New Jersey generally votes Democratic, though its enrollment is not as heavily Democratic as New York state's.
That was among likely voters, the best test.
The findings of the private polls will be tested by a series of public polls to be released over the next two weeks - starting with a Siena College survey of likely voters due out today.
And we will be watching and reporting. Such fun.
September 15, 2008. Permalink
"What you see is news. What you know is background. What you feel is opinion."
- Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
of The New York Times.
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