William Katz: Urgent Agenda
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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 17, 2008
Let's not pretend the political landscape is fine. It's not, but McCain has a remarkable ability to snap back. The heavy anchor tied to him, though, and to Governor Palin, is the disgraceful American press.
THE STATES Posted at 6:35 p.m. ET New state polls out today offer no particular encouragement for Senator McCain. At the same time, always remember that when one news organization releases a group of state polls, the results reflect the methodology of that organization. These polls reflect the end of the McCain bounce, and the economic turmoil this week. Rasmussen has Obama up two in Wisconsin and up four in Oregon. CNN/TIME has Obama up three in Wisconsin. Actually, those are encouraging, as both Wisconsin and Oregon are liberal states. But CNN/TIME has a tie in Florida, a state where recent polls showed McCain well ahead. They have Obama up two in Ohio, another state that recently seemed to trend toward McCain. They have McCain up only one in North Carolina, a narrow lead in a state also moving toward McCain. I have some doubts about these CNN/TIME results, but it's always possible that they're catching a McCain decline because of the economy. Later polls will tell us. Virginia, a critical state: A PPP poll has Obama up two, but a CNU Virginia poll has McCain up nine. There are some worrisome results here, but the election is many weeks away, and this is only one series of polls, taken at a particularly bad time for Senator McCain, when economic turmoil is on the front page, and when the normal fade from his convention is underway. Fight on. September 17, 2008. Permalink
It's important to put the plunge into perspective. There was another one on Monday, following the Lehman Brothers obituary, but there was some recovery on Tuesday. The net loss for the week, thus far, is about 600 points. No one is smiling, but panic is not called for, despite non-economist Barack Obama's grim words.
COMMENT: That's good. It means lower prices at the pump. Hate to be cynical, but that might help McCain.
TRACKERS Posted at 1:34 p.m. ET All trackers for the day are now out. The result is upsetting. While Rasmussen shows no change from yesterday, and has McCain up one, Gallup shows a three-point shift. Obama is now leading in the Gallup tracker by two points, the first time he'd led in this poll since the week of the Republican convention. The Hotline tracker shows Obama up three, down one point from yesterday. When you look at the Real Clear Politics link that we provide, you'll see that the number of polls in which McCain leads continues to diminish. His bounce, while not entirely gone, is reduced. And the unprecedented press assault on Sarah Palin may well be having its effect. There is a trend here, and that's what we look for, not individual polling days. Gallup says:
And...
I should stress that Gallup and Hotline measure registered voters, whereas Rasmussen measures likely voters. These national trackers don't measure individual states, but I would expect state polling results to start to change We don't do predictions here, but the only major events coming up in this campaign are the debates, and they will be influenced by moderators from the mainstream media. McCain has gained only when he's gotten a big push, such as his nomination of Sarah Palin. Clearly, there is cause for concern here. That concern is magnified by something we've written about since Urgent Agenda started in January - the role of a biased, undisciplined and unprofessional press. When journalists say they are simply doing their job when they look into every aspect of Sarah Palin's life, but refuse to ask a serious question of Barack Obama, this nation is in trouble, and it's serious trouble. September 17, 2008. Permalink
UPDATE AT 9:36 A.M. ET: The first tracker is out for the day, and it shows no change from yesterday. Rasmussen has McCain leading, 48-47. McCain had been sliding in the last week, but it's impossible to know if stability has returned. This result is only a one-day snapshot. We await Gallup and Hotline this afternoon. There will also be some new state polls published, and we'll report them.
LOOSE CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN Posted at 8:41 p.m. ET In an act of consummate bad timing, Barack Obama raced to Hollywood yesterday to float in a sea of oversized checkbooks and egos - this while sounding his "common man" theme as Wall Street came apart. The Hollywood crowd doesn't have enough class to know how absurd this looks. You'd think someone in Barack's campaign might have had some misgivings:
Or, as it's called in Tinseltown, a tip. This is vulgar in the extreme. Add to that some curious comments by The One.
I wasn't aware he was from Chicago. I thought he was from Hawaii, or Kansas, or somewhere by way of Indonesia. Some other place. Settled in Chicago.
You know, when a man keeps repeated how calm, but tough he is, I begin to wonder. Why does he have to say it? Is he trying to reassure us that he has the psychological stability to be president? I'm not reassured, especially as he can't seem to handle press questions or pressure on the campaign trail.
We'll be the judge of that. Looked pretty comical to me. September 17, 2008. Permalink OBLUNDERS? Posted at 7:42 a.m. ET Although polls show Obama closing a bit in the last five days, Michael Gerson believes he's made a serious of serious mistakes. The mistakes may say more about Obama's ability to withstand pressure than about his political judgment:
Well, the fish rots from the head. Who's running the campaign? I think it's Obama. But Obama has caved to Democratic conventional wisdom. First mistake: Choice of a v.p.
Second mistake: The tone of his convention.
Third mistake: Get really tough on McCain:
And the bottom line:
Can you imagine the man in an international crisis? An Urgent Agenda reader, a psychiatrist, writes us that, in his view, Obama is due for a meltdown. Finally:
But he could still win, which gives us the main chill. September 17, 2008. Permalink
COMMENT: Details are very sketchy. The death toll is tentative.
TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2008
COMMENT: Memo to Samuel L. Jackson: If the United States wasn't already in the "world community," those Frenchmen you spoke with in France would be speaking German.
Is that true? Democrats on Capitol Hill who support Obama say no. Wanting Obama to win, however, none will say so on the record. COMMENT: At least Tapper caught this. Let's see if the others in the MSM will hold Obama accountable for a claim he made himself, and which is plainly false. Don't hold your breath. Nothing to see here, folks. Just move along.
THE McCAIN THEY LOVED Posted at 7:35 p.m. ET Rich Lowry has a perceptive piece on the press and John McCain, and the divorce between them. I think Lowry has a point - the press loved the conservative McCain when they thought he was going to lose. Now that he's got a solid shot, other factors intervene:
Yeah. I think a lot of people figured out what was happening.
This man McCain - he didn't know his place. Just an old Navy guy; never went to Harvard.
Go at it, Rich. You're onto something here.
But how can the media question the campaign of a saint?
But that would mean respecting the views of the common folk. And, after all, what kind of civilized wine drinker and tofu eater would live in Alaska? Really.
Ouch. Very good. And very true. And don't forget the careerism that goes with this. You're not going to get very far in the MSM, which is run by the sixties crowd, by being pro-McCain. For too many in the media, an election campaign is about them, not about the presidency. It's a far fall from the time, decades ago, when the press refused to photograph FDR in a wheelchair because it was disrespectful to his office. At least then the media knew who the people had elected. September 16, 2008. Permalink
Great line. Now milk it, John, and get your staff re-disciplined and back on message. Those Streisand tickets are going for $28,000 apiece. That's elitism defined. Make yourself the maverick, populist candidate, with Sarah, and picture Obama as the out-of-touch darling of Beverly Hills and Aspen. This is hardball politics, not ping-pong.
COMMENT: So how do we explain the Siena poll? And how do we explain the story from ace political reporter Fred Dicker that the parties' private polls confirm that the race is close? I don't know, but something is wrong with the polling somewhere. Please note, though, that Siena began its polling on Monday, September 8th, right after the GOP convention. Rasmussen did all his polling yesterday. McCain has clearly been slipping a bit over the past week. That may explain some, but not all, of the discrepancy.
COMMENT: So much for freedom of speech. Given the passion of the left for reinstatement of the so-called "fairness doctrine," this may just be a warmup for what's coming - an attempt to get conservatives off the air.
TRACKERS Posted at 2:03 p.m. ET Both our standard trackers are now out, and both tell the same story - McCain up by one in both the Rasmussen and Gallup polls, his lead steadily deteriorating. I would not be shocked to see Obama in the lead again by the end of the week. And Obama has just jumped into a four-point lead in the Hotline daily tracker. We'd said some days ago that the results in the middle of this week would tell us whether the McCain convention bounce lasts. Actually, he's held up reasonably well. He's still ahead in two of the three trackers, but the bounce has a bit less bounce in it. We've now seen a trend over four or five days. The shock to the economy from Wall Street, and the continued destruction of Sarah Pal in by the media, cannot help McCain. Once again we recall the old adage that a week is a lifetime in politics. The McCain people must discipline their campaign, get on their economic message, keep their ads accurate, and try to stop the destruction of Sarah. Last week, Mark Penn, a Clinton consultant, said that the media is the big loser in this campaign because of its behavior. Yes, it's a loser if we're talking about credibility. It's a winner if it elects its sixties dream - Barack Obama. Credibility isn't the media's thing anymore. It's filled with leftists who want to "make a difference." They may make that difference. Very tough fight ahead. Dead even, but momentum is starting to shift back to Obama. September 16, 2008. Permalink
And you know, I'm sure both of them know what the Bush Doctrine is.
UPDATE AT 9:55 A.M. ET: The first tracker of the day is out. Rasmussen reports McCain with a one-point lead. He was up two yesterday, three the day before. We're seeing the same pattern here as with the Gallup tracker - McCain is beginning to lose support. It's a small loss so far, and may merely reflect the end of his convention bounce. But trouble in the economy and the relentless press assault against Sarah Palin may also have their impact. Gallup also had McCain up two yesterday, down from five only days earlier. We await the new Gallup poll this afternoon. This is a very critical moment. If Obama pulls back into the lead, the psychological effect on the McCain campaign can be devastating. The press riot against Sarah Palin will only intensify, as the rioters will feel it's working. Being the bullies they are, they will kick her while she's down. Demoralization in the McCain camp could set in. We have written here for some time that press bias could decide this election because it is the worst we've ever seen. We can only hope that the good sense of the American people can see past the bigotry, safeguard the future of their country.
JERSEY BLUES Posted at 7:58 a.m. ET There may be some hoopla today over some poll results in New Jersey. I want to inject a cautionary note. Two new polls show a tightening race in the heavily Democratic state.
That averages out to about a five-point Obama lead among likelies. Now, that's great progress for McCain, and I hope it continues. If McCain can take New Jersey, he probably takes the election, rather easily. The problem is, we've been here before, as the director of one of the polls, Patrick Murray, cautions:
During the last election campaign in 2004, there was also excitement, based on September poll results, that New Jersey would slip into the Republican column. But, on election day, it was right back where it normally is - solidly Democratic. So take these results with two caution pills. Watch the trends. If the trends continue relentlessly in McCain's direction, the end result this time may be an upset. But don't be shocked if you see normalcy returning in October. One great thing about the McCain surge in states like New Jersey and New York is that it forces Obama to put resources into places that previously were considered safe. His campaign does not seem to do well under pressure, and this just increases that pressure. September 16, 2008. Permalink WHO CARES? Posted at 8:15 a.m. ET He's back. I thought he had retired, or gone away, or drifted off to some golf course, but Colin Powell insists on hanging around. And now he's teasing us about his choice for president, as if, based on his statements, we should have any doubt. This is important only because, in a very tight race, a Powell endorsement at the last minute might shift a couple of hundred thousand votes, some of them possibly in crucial places. I have never been a Powell fan. I think that his is one of the more overrated careers in our recent history. Powell always struck me as the consummate bureaucrat, a man who could drift from job to job without leaving any footprints. His tenure as secretary of state was particularly undistinguished. He did almost no traveling, met almost no foreign leaders unless they were passing through, and never seemed passionate about anything. His statements after 9/11 were those of a man who'd adapted to the State Department view of the world. He referred to the "events of September 11th," a sanitized way of describing attacks that killed 3,000 of his countrymen. I don't recall his ever visiting the attack site in his native city of New York. His name is on no policy following that horrible day. He seemed to spend most of his time being blameless. Now he returns, as CNN reports:
Balancing act. He then says:
He knows both candidates extremely well? How well could he know Obama, a recent arrival to fame? And apparently the general doesn't care for the tone of the campaign. Not good enough for him. In fact, issues have been widely discussed.
Okay, let's wave that flag. But his career was made possible by Republicans, although he seemed to have a snobbish view of the greatest of them, Ronald Reagan. When President Reagan proposed saying publicly to the Soviet leader, "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall," it was reported that Powell tried to talk him out of it. Why take a stand? Why do stuff when you can just be there?
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I love words like "energized." Obama has energized people around the world? What precisely are they doing? The kicker:
He's going to endorse Obama, probably as a way of getting back at people who eased him out of the Bush administration. I don't recall McCain begging Bush to let Powell stay. I'm hoping the American people will discount the endorsement, but, as I said, a critical mass might be influenced. Let's hope McCain is ahead by enough to negate any effect. September 16, 2008. Permalink
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