EVENING UPDATE:  APRIL 30, 2008

Posted at 7:08 p.m. ET

THE OBAMA WATCH

Obama is picking up some superdelegates, even as his poll numbers are looking soft.  As said here in this space, and, to be fair, in many other spaces, Obama is still the favorite to get the nomination because the party would be risking a revolt by African-Americans and some young voters if Clinton got the nod.

However, there may be a counter-revolt brewing.  A new New York Times poll shows Hillary's supporters will not go gently:

As the Democratic nominating contest rages on, most of Barack Obama’s supporters say they would be satisfied if Hillary Clinton wins the party’s nomination for president. But that positive sentiment is not entirely reciprocated among Hillary Clinton’s supporters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

More than six in 10 Democratic primary voters who support Mr. Obama in the poll say they would be satisfied if Mrs. Clinton wins the nomination. But among Mrs. Clinton’s supporters, just 49 percent say they would feel satisfied if Mr. Obama wins, while 50 percent would be dissatisfied. Nearly a quarter say they would be very dissatisfied.

The term is "Reagan Democrats," or "McCain Democrats."  McCain is well positioned to attract some of the more conservative Clinton supporters. 

The only way this can be turned around for Obama is if he starts to run a better, more reasoned campaign.  He started well, but has shown a remarkable inability to maneuver, which probably reflects his lack of national experience.  This isn't a game for amateurs.

April 30, 2008.      Permalink          

A WARNING

Shaul Mofaz, Israel's minister of transportation, is warning that, based on intelligence, Iran could have a nuclear weapon within a year.  What makes the story significant is that Mofaz is the former Israeli chief of staff and is Iranian by birth:

Iran has taken command of its nuclear technology and could have an atomic bomb in a year, Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz was quoted as saying Wednesday, citing Israeli intelligence.

According to Channel 10, Mofaz made the comments during talks with US officials in Washington where he leading an Israeli delegation holding meetings within the framework of the Israel-US Strategic Dialogue.

In the past, the general consensus in the intelligence community has been that Iran had hit some technical difficulties with enrichment and that its attainment of nuclear capability was much further off.

Late Sunday night, as Mofaz headed to Washington, he said that Iran must be prevented from attaining nuclear weapons and that all the options were on the table in order to stop that from happening.

"Teheran leads the axis of evil, poses a threat to the entire world, is up to its neck in the Middle East and is even trying to get a foothold in the West Bank," he said.

Meanwhile, as a second US aircraft carrier steamed into the Persian Gulf, CBS reported Tuesday that the Pentagon had ordered military commanders to develop new options for attacking Iran.

The mainstream media, in focusing on our political campaign, is losing focus on Iran.  Those centrifuges are spinning, and either Bush will take some action before he leaves office, or, more probably, the next president will have a major crisis to face.  And it may be President Obama, who isn't exactly a man of steel. 

April 30, 2008.      Permalink          

A SLIGHT REVISION

If this is true, I suggest a major Congressional investigation into the sanity, integrity and moral fibre of the "scientific community."  London's Telegraph reports that scientists now believe there will be no further global warming until 2015:

Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said.

Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific remains unchanged.

This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the scientific journal Nature.

However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that warming will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer back towards warming, according to the computer model.

I really think we have to get this right.  I really do.  We're told something different every few months.  It reminds me of how treatments for various medical conditions, like polio and heart disease, evolved and changed radically over the decades.  What was medical truth one year was thrown out the next.

Before we commit trillions of dollars to "environmental" changes, let's nail down the facts, if anyone is still interested in facts.

Be back tomorrow, or later tonight if events warrant.  And do check in at SNIPPETS, for brief reports on almost anything.  Items are added all the time.

April 30, 2008      Permalink          

LATE AFTERNOON POSTING:  APRIL 30,  2008

Posted at 4:46 p.m. ET

LATEST FOX POLL

Fox has just issued its latest poll:

Nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) think Hillary Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain in November — 10 percentage points higher than the 38 percent who think Barack Obama can win, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday. This represents a significant shift from March, when Democrats said Obama was the candidate more likely to beat McCain.

Democrats continue to favor Clinton as their party’s leader, albeit narrowly: 44 percent want her to win the nomination and 41 percent want Obama. Last month Clinton was preferred by 2 percentage points.

Clearly, this is bad news for Obama.  Further:

Further, for the second month in a row Clinton does slightly better than Obama in head-to-head matchups against the Republican senator. Clinton tops McCain by just 1 point (45 percent to 44 percent), down from a 3-point advantage last month. McCain edges Obama by a narrow 3-point margin (46 percent to 43 percent), up from a 1-point lead.

More angst:

Nearly a third of Clinton supporters — 32 percent — say they would vote for McCain instead of Obama (47 percent) if the general election were held today. Fewer Obama supporters — 21 percent — would defect and vote for McCain over Clinton if she were the nominee.

For Obama, coronary country:

The ongoing controversy over Obama’s former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, appears to have damaged how Americans view Obama. His favorable rating is now 47 percent, down 7 percentage points since February when 54 percent had a positive view of him. As may be expected, his unfavorable rating went up from 33 percent to 42 percent today.

The poll shows smaller changes in the other candidate’s ratings: Clinton’s favorable rating is up 2 points to 47 percent from 45 percent in February, while McCain’s is down 3 points from 52 percent to 49 percent today.

The decline in Obama’s favorable rating also is evident among Democrats: 63 percent have a favorable opinion now, down from 73 percent in February. For Clinton, 73 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of her, up from 71 percent.

It's obvious that Obama needs a new TV reality show where he can vote his pastor off the island...or the planet.

April 30, 2008.      Permalink          

EARLY AFTERNOON POSTING:  APRIL 30, 2008 

Posted at 2:22 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

New tracking polls show Obama hurt by the Wright stuff.  These polls don't measure the reaction to Obama's comments yesterday.

For the Democratic nomination, Rasmussen has Obama up by only four points, down from eight yesterday.  Gallup has Clinton leading Obama by one.  Rasmussen comments on its results:

Today’s update shows the race as close as it has been since the Pennsylvania Primary. Results from the past two nights of tracking are even closer. If this tightening continues, it would suggest that the issues surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright are having a significant impact on support for Barack Obama. A separate survey found that 36% say a candidate’s character is more important than his specific policy positions. Most, however, are more interested in the policies.

National trackers:  Rasmussen has McCain up one over Obama, Gallup has McCain up two.  This is all the more remarkable since McCain has been out of the news. 

Rasmussen has a tie between McCain and Clinton.  Gallup has Clinton up one. 

There are no new Indiana or North Carolina polls to report.  Both states vote Tuesday.

We stress again that these are tracking polls.  You have to look at them over a period of days to assess a trend.  They should be very interesting in the coming week as voters react to Obama's latest statement on Rev. Wright.

April 30, 2008.       Permalink          

NEW MORNING ITEM:  APRIL 30,  2008

Posted at 7:38 a.m. ET

KENTUCKY

The Kentucky Democratic primary is May 20th.  A new Survey USA poll, out this morning, has Hillary Clinton leading by 36 points.  You read that correctly.

Yikes.

This is why Clinton must get through next Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina, both states in which her fortunes seem to be improving.  West Virginia votes May 13th, and that, too, is considered Clinton territory. 

The key question:  Has Senator Obama improved his prospects by his denunciation of Reverend Wright?  Or has he simply called attention to Wright's comments and cemented the issue in the public mind?  The answer may well determine Obama's political fate.

April 30, 2008.      Permalink          

WEDNESDAY:  APRIL 30,  2008

Posted at 6:58 a.m. ET

THE McCAIN STORY

Karl Rove, one of the best political minds in the business, has a remarkable column in today's Wall Street Journal.  It may seem familiar to some, but much of it was new to me.  Rove argues that John McCain must open up, become less private, this year if he is to win in November.  He tells some of McCain's stories, stories McCain is reluctant to tell himself.  What strikes me is the difference in lives lived between McCain and Obama.  It is Obama who is the child of privilege, yet we're told he has a "great story."  No he doesn't.  It's McCain who has the great story, and has lived real hardship.  Rove writes:

When it comes to choosing a president, the American people want to know more about a candidate than policy positions. They want to know about character, the values ingrained in his heart. For Mr. McCain, that means they will want to know more about him personally than he has been willing to reveal.

And...

For example, in 1991 Cindy McCain was visiting Mother Teresa's orphanage in Bangladesh when a dying infant was thrust into her hands. The orphanage could not provide the medical care needed to save her life, so Mrs. McCain brought the child home to America with her. She was met at the airport by her husband, who asked what all this was about.

Mrs. McCain replied that the child desperately needed surgery and years of rehabilitation. "I hope she can stay with us," she told her husband. Mr. McCain agreed. Today that child is their teenage daughter Bridget.

I was aware of this story. What I did not know, and what I learned from Doris, is that there was a second infant Mrs. McCain brought back. She ended up being adopted by a young McCain aide and his wife.

"We were called at midnight by Cindy," Wes Gullett remembers, and "five days later we met our new daughter Nicki at the L.A. airport wearing the only clothing Cindy could find on the trip back, a 7-Up T-shirt she bought in the Bangkok airport." Today, Nicki is a high school sophomore. Mr. Gullett told me, "I never saw a hospital bill" for her care.

Rove concludes:

Americans need to know about his vision for the nation's future, especially his policy positions and domestic reforms. They also need to learn about the moments in his life that shaped him. Mr. McCain cannot make this a biography-only campaign – but he can't afford to make it a biography-free campaign either. Unless he opens up more, many voters will never know the experiences of his life that show his character, integrity and essential decency.

These qualities mattered in America's first president and will matter as Americans decide on their 44th president.

That's good advice, especially as Mr. McCain's likely opponent will be presented to the American people by the mainstream media as a gift from Providence, and maybe Providence itself.

April 30, 2008.       Permalink          

DRILL YOU DRILLERS

Robert Samuelson of The Washington Post, not a rabid right-wing, environment-wrecking right-wing conspirator, makes a common-sense argument that we must drill our way out of the current oil crisis:

Perhaps we can persuade OPEC to raise production, as some senators suggest; but this seems unlikely. The truth is that we're almost powerless to influence today's prices. We are because we didn't take sensible actions 10 or 20 years ago. If we persist, we will be even worse off in a decade or two. The first thing to do: Start drilling.

It may surprise Americans to discover that the United States is the third-largest oil producer, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. We could be producing more, but Congress has put large areas of potential supply off-limits. These include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and parts of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. By government estimates, these areas may contain 25-30 billion barrels of oil (against about 30 billion of proven U.S. reserves today) and 80 trillion cubic feet or more of natural gas (compared with about 200 tcf of proven reserves).

What keeps these areas closed are exaggerated environmental fears, strong prejudice against oil companies and sheer stupidity. Americans favor both "energy independence" and cheap fuel. They deplore imports -- who wants to pay foreigners? -- but oppose more production in the United States. Got it? The result is a "no-pain energy agenda that sounds appealing but has no basis in reality," writes Robert Bryce in "Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of 'Energy Independence.'"

And...

On environmental grounds, the alternatives to more drilling are usually worse. Subsidies to ethanol made from corn have increased food prices and used scarce water, with few benefits. If oil is imported, it's vulnerable to tanker spills. By contrast, local production is probably safer. There were 4,000 platforms operating in the Gulf of Mexico when hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit. Despite extensive damage, there were no major spills, says Robbie Diamond of Securing America's Future Energy, an advocacy group.

Perhaps oil prices will drop when some long-delayed projects begin production or if demand slackens. But the basic problem will remain. Though dependent on foreign oil, we might conceivably curb the power of foreign producers. But this is not a task of a month or a year. It is a task of decades; new production projects take that long. If we don't start now, our future dependence and its dangers will grow. Count on it.

Read the whole thing.  It's important.  Great powers usually don't die.  They commit suicide, and these days suicide is usually helped along by "the good people" trying to "improve the Earth."  Yeah, right.

April 30, 2008.      Permalink          

CLUELESS

Finally, we usually depend on London's Telegraph to give us good reporting of the American landscape.  Unfortunately, the paper can have a bad day, or a writer who, uh, is a bit disconnected.  Consider this from today's edition:

President Carter has given Senator Obama a major boost by calling for the bitter Democratic nomination battle to end on the day of the final primaries on June 3. And he has spoken in glowingly of his ability to “transform the image” of America.

Mr. Carter did not formally endorse Mr. Obama, but in an interview with the Daily Telegraph made clear where his sympathies lie. He even sketched out the kind of inaugural address the first black American president could deliver.

Coming from the most distinguished of some 300 uncommitted super-delegates — the Democratic party leaders who will crown their party’s nominee — Mr. Carter’s comments will be a blow to Senator Clinton’s chances of winning the White House.

“I don’t see any reason at all to continue after June 3 when we know who got the most [pledged] delegates, who got the most popular votes, who won the most states and so forth,” Mr. Carter, 83, said.

Now, to our friends at The Telegraph:

1.  Carter did not give Obama a "major boost" because he can't give anyone a major boost.

2.  Carter is seen by millions of Americans as a public embarrassment and an Israel hater.  This does not bring in votes.

3.  Carter's comments are not "a blow to Senator Clinton's chances of winning the White House."  No one cares.

4.  The Obama people are probably jubilant that Carter, the presidential equivalent of Rev Wright, made his comments to a British newspaper, which is not normally read by Americans of the working class.

We forgive the Telegraph this rare lapse, but will monitor the paper more closely in the future.

Be back later.

April 30, 2008.      Permalink