WE NOW HAVE OUR CONTINOUS BLOGGING ON THE INDIANA AND NORTH CAROLINA CAMPAIGNS:

1:16 a.m. ET:  Fox News has just called Indiana for Clinton, by a very narrow margin, 51-49.  All right, she wins, but this was not a good night for Clinton.  She was expected to win Indiana by a respectable margin, and to keep Obama to single digits in North Carolina.  She did neither.  Yet, West Virginia votes next Tuesday, and Clinton is expected to win handily.  Will she stay in, hoping for a miracle?  She hasn't phoned me.

12:57 a.m. ET:  With 95 percent of the Indiana vote in, Clinton is clinging to a narrow two-percent lead.  Chances are, according to the TV analysts, that she will squeak it out, but narrowly.  However, never underestimate the ability of local machine politicians to find loving voters, whose biological lives ended years ago, but whose voting lives continue to give.

Midnight, Eastern time:  There is new drama in Indiana.  As Brit Hume just said, this could be the story of the night.  Obama is rapidly closing the gap.  He could win the state.  However, note this:  He is closing based on votes from Lake County, which has just started reporting.  These votes are coming in very late.  They are from areas known for political roughness and hard-knuckle politics, and these regions are heavily African-American.  Corruption is not unknown.  This may not go down well, and I wouldn't be surprised if the totals are questioned.  Would Clinton question them if she loses?  Hard to say.  A Democrat would be very reluctant to question votes from black areas.  However, let's wait for the final Lake County vote, and not pre-judge. 

11:49 p.m.:  The gap between Clinton and Obama in Indiana is now down to two percent, with Lake County still out.  This could be an upset.  Stand by.

11:45 p.m.:  A Fox affiliate reporter says that Lake County officials are claiming that there's just a, yawn, slow count going on in the area, nothing unusual.  Amazing, though, how the rest of the state managed to count their votes earlier.  Oh, a Lake County rep says their counters are just a bit older.  Geez. 

11:03 p.m.:  Lake County, Indiana, still hasn't reported.  If I were Barack Obama, I'd be on the phone with county officials demanding they get that vote in.  It's an African-American area.  If there's fraud, or serious suspicion of fraud, it can backfire and hurt Obama, and reinforce the notion, already suggested by the Rev. Wright affair, that he's a racial candidate.  Obama must not let supporters drag him down.

10:56 p.m.:  Hillary Clinton is speaking.  She's effective, but her surplus of optimism doesn't exactly ring true.  However, she's just mentioned the magic words - Michigan and Florida, whose delegates, as of now, won't be counted at the convention because the state primaries violated Democratic Party rules.  Those are Clinton states.  If she drives the point of fairness home, it can have some effect.  To have the desired effect, Clinton would have to do overwhelmingly well in upcoming primaries to counter her less-than-stella r showing tonight, and Obama would have to fade.  Well, maybe there's another minister out there. 

10:36 p.m.:  Fox News reports that the Clinton camp is increasingly angry about the holding back of votes from Lake County, Indiana, which includes Gary.  A Fox reporter mentioned that they haven't even begun counting votes in that area.  This is rough politics, with racial overtones.  And this could occur on election night in November.  Be prepared.

9:55 p.m.:  Lake County, Indiana, which is realistically a Chicago suburb, has still not reported.  There is a heavy African-American population there, and residents get Chicago TV stations.  They know Obama.  I have no idea why there are no reports from Lake County, but there's an old tradition of big-city machines withholding votes until late in the count, with the hope of putting their guy over the top.  It's clear that Indiana isn't finished.  There is the possibility of an upset win for Obama - unlikely but possible - which would essentially end Hillary Clinton's campaign.  This will go on into the night. 

9:34 p.m.:  Obama continues.  Wonderful speaker, but so simplistic.  He was over the top when he suggested that John McCain doesn't stand for the best American values.  Really?  He's added some patriotic talk because it's become necessary.  But America, I hope, will ask for the fine print.

9:24 p.m.:  Indiana is still too close to call for Fox and CNN.  Obama is now speaking.  He talks about changing America.  Short on specifics.  Long on demagoguery.

9:03 p.m.:   Bill Kristol, on Fox News, is pointing out that this could be a key night for Obama.  If he wins big in North Carolina, which appears likely, and Clinton only wins in low single digits in Indiana, which seems likely, Obama's lead in tonight's popular vote, when you add the two states together, could be more than 250,000.  That could make it impossible for Clinton to argue that she might eventually lead in the popular vote nationally.  Clinton could still argue, of course, that Democratic primaries are very unrepresentative of the general-election population, but that argument has never made any impact on the party of George McGovern, which this is.

8:32 p.m.:  The demographic profile powering Barack Obama's wins in primaries thus far reminds me of the same profile that emerged on the left during the late sixties.  Leftist Democrats were hoping for a coalition of the black, the young, and the poor.  I recall a Republican operative of the time saying that the Nixon coalition would depend on the "unblack, the unyoung, and the unpoor."  I've been writing that the Democrats want to return to the sixties.  That's becoming clearer and clearer.  They even have another war to oppose.

8:25 p.m.:  CBS News has called Indiana for Clinton.

8:12 p.m.:  Please note that neither Fox News nor CNN have actually called Indiana for Clinton despite Fox's earlier prediction that she'd win by four points.  But the state seems to be going her way.

8:06 p.m.:  CNN analysts pretty much agree that, because Clinton didn't upset Obama in North Carolina, it's over for her.  She really made no gain tonight.  That may turn out to be true, but she's likely to go on to friendlier territory in coming primaries, hoping that Obama runs into another Rev. Wright or makes another speech in San Francisco.

7:55 p.m.:  Again the issue of race is lurking in the campaign.  According to latest results, Hillary Clinton won 59 percent of the white vote in North Carolina.  It raises the question of whether some of these voters will become "McCain Democrats" in November.  Clearly, McCain is making a major pitch to "moderate" voters, and that could make the difference on election day.

7:33 p.m.:  Polls have just closed in North Carolina.  Fox News projects, based on exit polls, that Barack Obama has won a solid victory based on overhwhelming support among African-Americans, who make up more than a third of the vote in North Carolina, and support among the young.

7:20 p.m.:  I tried to get some insight from CNN, but ran into a patch of commercials.  They're going on so long that the actors in them are starting to age.

7:15 p.m.:  Fox News is predicting, based on exit polls, that Hillary Clinton will win Indiana by four points.  However, Brit Hume cautions that Obama tends to do better in the exit polls than in the actual vote, so the margin could be larger, even much larger.

May 6, 2008.      Permalink          

AFTERNOON POSTING:  MAY 6, 2008

Posted at 4:52 p.m.

LATE POLLS

Suffolk University's polls have had a solid track record this year.  The poll checks bellwether counties as well as entire states.  Suffolk is predicting a seven-point win for Senator Clinton today in Indiana.

There are no new state polls up since this morning.

For the Democratic nomination, Rasmussen has Obama up four over Clinton, Gallup has him up two.  Not a runaway.  Also note that an Ipsos poll published yesterday had Clinton up seven.

In the general, Gallup has McCain up one over Obama, but Ras has a tie.  The Ipsos poll published yesterday has Obama up four.

Gallup has Clinton up one over McCain, whereas Rasmussen has Clinton up four and Ipsos up five. 

Once again the trend continues - resilience by Senator Clinton.  She is holding her own.

The next poll will be the real count in Indiana and North Carolina tonight.

May 6,  2008.      Permalink          

TUESDAY:  MAY 6,  2008

Posted at 6:23 a.m. ET

PRIMARY DAY

Today is primary day in Indiana and North Carolina.  As in all elections, the result depends on turnout. It doesn't matter what the voters think unless the voters vote. 

The expectations game:  It's important in politics because it has a psychological effect.  Most pundits expect Hillary Clinton to win in Indiana by about five points.  Most of them expect Barack Obama to win in North Carolina, by maybe a few more points.  If the expectations are correct, the day will end as it begins - with Clinton moving on to Kentucky and West Virginia, but Obama still favored to win by delegate votes.

But there could be surprises.  If Clinton loses both Indiana and North Carolina, it's over for her, even if she chooses to continue.  If Obama loses Indiana and is upset in North Carolina he'd still have a statistically better shot at the nomination than would Clinton, but doubts about him would grow out of control.

So, the stakes are high.  We'll be following the voting throughout the day, and will be blogging through the night until the results become clear.

May 6, 2008.       Permalink          

THE MAYOR

Former New York Mayor Ed Koch has never been known to mince words.  He apparently has no intention of starting.  He has a definite view of the Democratic race, and I think it reflects the opinion of other pros within the party: 

I believe that, if he is the Democratic candidate for president, Senator Obama will lose in November. There are many people in the Democratic Party and its leadership who feel that way. They are told that, nevertheless, the party must accept Obama even if he arrives at the convention with fewer committed delegates than needed to win the nomination. They say that to deprive him of victory under all of these circumstances would so enrage his supporters that they would either stay home in November or cross party lines and vote for Senator John McCain.

And...

Many superdelegates who will be making the decision to nominate the Democratic candidate will be told that they will permanently damage the party by causing a defection of the black vote if they deprive Obama of victory. There is no doubt that were the superdelegates to do what they were appointed to do - provide to the best of their ability a candidate who is perceived to be best able to win in November against the Republican candidate - they will be vilified by many Democrats if they do not select Obama.

What Koch is talking about here is a prescription for bitterness and resentment, especially should Obama lose in November, as Koch predicts.  I'm glad he said what needed to be said - that superdelegates are there to make an independent judgment, not just follow primary results.  It's unlikely that they'll do so because of the very intimidation Koch describes. 

This should be an easy Democratic year, but the party is just short of a civil war.

May 6, 2008.      Permalink          

CARVILLE

Democratic operative James Carville, in the Financial Times, endorses the view that bitterness is his party's lot this year.  He is known to be very close to the Clintons, but I don't see anything particularly partisan in this perceptive analysis:

There are two main parts of the Democratic party. The first and fastest growing is what I refer to (somewhat uncreatively) as “Party A” Democrats. Party A Democrats tend to be urban or suburban. They are traditionally better educated, white, more affluent, heavily female, socially liberal and reform-oriented.

And...

The other side of the party is a more broad coalition of working class people who are generally less affluent, less educated and look to the federal government to soften the harsher edges of capitalism. They tend to be either urban or rural. I refer to them as “Party B” Democrats. They favour increased funding for federal programmes from Medicare to unemployment compensation to subsidised student loans. This wing of the party has included labour unions, older voters, African-Americans and non-college- educated young voters.

And...

In the past, the less affluent, pro-government wing of the party has consistently won. But what makes this race so wonderfully complex and textured is that Barack Obama, an almost prototype Party A Democrat, reaches right into Party B and yanks out African-Americans – a group that makes up almost a quarter of the Democratic party. Hillary Clinton, whose message is almost exclusively Party B, pulls a significant vote among older, educated white women, who most of their lives have been firmly in the Party A camp.

Finally...

If Mrs Clinton wins the nomination, do the Party B African-Americans who have embraced Mr Obama’s campaign feel comfortable remaining in the party and voting for Mrs Clinton? Conversely, are the Party A, older, college-educated white women comfortable embracing Mr Obama’s candidacy after supporting Mrs. Clinton so fervently?

Only time will tell and it is certainly not as simple or easy as it seems. When you consider that African-Americans make up slightly less of the Democratic party as self-identified evangelical or social conservatives do for the Republican party (about 25 per cent), you get a sense of how serious this could be for Democrats. One can only imagine where the Republicans would be without that percentage of voters, and the same can be said of the Democrats.

Unspoken is the possibility, especially if Obama wins the nomination and loses the election, of a permanent split within the Democratic Party, leading to the formation of a third party, which might even be called The New Democrats.  I can just see Joe Lieberman and Hillary Clinton and...  Well, for now that's dreaming.  But circle December on your calendar.

May 6, 2008.        Permalink          

AFTER TODAY

The Politico gives a good picture of the electoral map should Hillary Clinton survive today by winning one of the two primaries being held.  The odds are for her in Indiana:

If Hillary Clinton wins in either Indiana or North Carolina Tuesday, the primary election terrain suddenly begins to look more favorable to her than at any other point since Super Tuesday Feb. 5.

For the first time since February, she will enter a month-long stretch of states where a variety of factors leave her well-positioned to win or compete in most of them.

None of the remaining six states hold caucuses, the nominating events where the Obama campaign’s organizational strength and savvy shines. Four of the six are closed primaries, which neutralizes Obama’s strength among independents and Republicans. None have African-American populations above 10 percent — a key Obama constituency. And two rank among the top 10 states with populations aged 65 or older — a group Clinton runs well with.

Regardless of her performance against Barack Obama in the six remaining primaries, the delegate math remains daunting for Clinton. But if her campaign gains momentum out of Tuesday’s primaries, the next six contests in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota may afford enough opportunities for victory to sustain her campaign at least through June 3.

And, of course, she will be helped if Obama makes another Wright-sized mistake, which he seems prone to do.

We'll know the story in hours.

May 6, 2008.      Permalink