EVENING UPDATE:  MAY 12,  2008

Posted at 7:51 p.m.

OBAMA'S CHICAGO PROBLEM

John Kass, of the Chicago Tribune, finally asks a fundamental question about Barack Obama: When will he finally be tied to his political enablers in Chicago?   Kass:

The presumptive Democratic presidential candidate's politics were born in Chicago. Yet he is presented to the nation as not truly being of this place, as if he floats just above the political corruption here, uninfected, untouched by the stain of it or by any sin of commission or omission. It is all so very mystical.

Not really:

"I think I have done a good job in rising politically in this environment without being entangled in some of the traditional problems of Chicago politics," Obama told reporters and editors at a Tribune editorial board meeting several weeks ago.

Yes, an excellent job. Except for his dalliance with his indicted real estate fairy, Tony Rezko, a relationship Obama considers a mistake, the senator has not played the fly to Mayor Richard Daley's spider. Almost, but not quite.

And...

He has endorsed Daley, endorsed Daley's hapless stooge Todd Stroger for president of the Cook County Board. These are not the acts of a reformer, but of a guy who, as we say in Chicago, won't make no waves and won't back no losers.

Obama the reformer is backed by Mayor Richard M. Daley and the Daley boys. He is spoken for by Daley's own spokesman, David Axelrod. He was launched into his U.S. Senate by machine power broker and state Senate President Emil Jones (D-ComEd).

And...

My argument is not with him—but with the national political media pack that refuses to look closely at what Chicago is. They're fixated on what it was, and they think it's clean now.

And they've spent years crafting, then cleaving to their eager and trembling Obama narrative, a tale of great yearning, almost mythic and ardently adolescent, a tale in which Obama is portrayed as a reformer, a dynamic change agent about to do away with the old thuggish politics.

The key word here is "adolescent."  There is something terribly adolescent, juvenile, about the Obama phenomenon.  It has a particular appeal to those for whom a TV screen, a computer game, a music video, is reality.  And it has an appeal to journalists who believe that, through Obama, they can relive their youth.

It's the consequences we have to worry about.  Douglas MacArthur once remarked that people who say the pen is mightier than the sword have never faced automatic weapons.  Senator Obama doesn't face much each day besides admiring crowds and a fawning press.  Why do I think this music is going to stop?

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

McCAIN AND YOUTH

And yet, in what I think is a very shrewd move, the McCain campaign is targeting youth.  No, McCain will not portray himself as "cool," but as wise.  Instinctively, the McCain people understand that while young people may not listen to their parents, they do listen to their grandparents:

He's a Republican, for starters. He describes himself as ''older than dirt.'' And he makes no apology for an Iraq war that is especially unpopular on college campuses.

Doesn't sound like a recipe for winning the hearts of young voters. And yet John McCain has vowed to make a serious play for the 18- to 29-year-old crowd that's often identified with ''Obama-mania.''

Could the 71-year-old grandfather possibly have a shot?

Well...look at this:

Several polls, including a recent AP-Ipsos survey, show Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton faring far better with that age bracket when pitted individually against McCain.

But in the last month or so, there've been blips in McCain's favor. One recent AP-Yahoo News poll found that 38 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds supported McCain, while 37 percent were for Obama. When pitted against Clinton, it was McCain 43 percent, Clinton 28 percent. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

And...

''He's not going to blow the saxophone on MTV or talk about boxers or briefs,'' says Christopher Malone, an associate professor of political science at Pace University in New York. ''But that's part of the allure. There's a real dignity about him in terms of his patriotism and war record.''

A number of observers are doubtful, of course, that McCain actually can do well among young voters.  But at least he's trying, and he isn't following conventional wisdom.  Many assume, for example, that Jack Kennedy's magnetism gave him the women's vote in 1960.  Actually, the women's vote divided for Nixon.  When citizens enter that voting booth on election day, they can suddenly get very serious - about war and peace, about leadership, about character.  Then they do what the pundits least expect - they vote intelligently.  It's happened before, and it can happen again.

May 12, 2008.       Permalink          

NEW AFTERNOON POST:  MAY 12,  2008

Posted at 4:06 p.m.

THE STAFF MESSED UP

According to a devastating report by Jake Tapper at ABC News, that's the standard refrain of Barack Obama when something goes wrong.  Tapper reviews the number of times Obama has blamed his staff when he's been embarrassed.  John McCain comes from a Naval tradition that begins with the words, "I take full responsibility..."  Apparently, Obama comes from a different tradition:

We started covering Sen. Barack Obama's inability to hire good staffers in June 2007, when he blamed staffers for some opposition research trying to link Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to outsourcing in India; for injecting some venom in the David Geffen/Hillary Clinton fight; and for missing an event with firefighters in New Hampshire.

In December, we noted again that Obama was blaming the answers on a 1996 questionnaire on a staffer; and was blaming his touring with "cured" ex-gay gospel singer Donnie McClurkin (which antagonized gays and lesbians) on bad vetting by his staff.

Those five buck-passing incidents were apparently not enough.

Yikes.  It gets worse.  Tapper goes through example after example of Obama blaming staff members for mistakes, right up through this March.  And Tapper concludes:

So, for those keeping track at home, that's ten instances of Obama publicly blaming his staff for various screw-ups.

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10!

(You of course could also add Austan Goolsbee, Samantha Power, Gordon Fischer, and retired Gen. Tony McPeak.)

That would be 14. We will continue to keep track.

And for the record, yet again, let me state that I find Sen. Obama's staff unfailingly competent and polite, courteous and efficient, and I once again express my regret that Sen. Obama does apparently not feel the same way.

Ouch.  I wonder how Obama's staff now feels about the senator.  I'm not sure "accept all blame" is part of their job descriptions.

May 12, 2008.       Permalink          

AFTERNOON POST:  MAY 12,  2008

Posted at 2:56 p.m. ET

POLLS

The newest poll in West Virginia has Hillary Clinton up 36 points over Barack Obama.  (You read that right - 36.)  If it holds and people actually vote tomorrow, that is a major blowout.  But, as I noted earlier, the pundits and politicians have already discounted it. 

However, the newest poll in Kentucky, which votes next week, shows Clinton with a 27-point advantage.  Kentucky had voted with the winner in presidential elections since 1964, 44 years ago.  The newest poll showed that in the general election in Kentucky McCain would defeat Clinton 53-41, but would defeat Obama 58-33.  The Clinton campaign expects the numbers to tighten in Kentucky for next week's primary, as Obama is spending heavily in the state.

Obama is expected to win easily in Oregon next week, taking the edge off Clinton's win in Kentucky.

I agree with those who say the race is essentially over and that Obama, barring some catastrophe, will be the nominee.  However, some of the poll results just noted continue to show his remarkable vulnerabilities. 

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

ADDITIONAL MORNING POST:  MAY 12, 2008

Posted at 9:14 a.m. ET

OBAMA AND MUSLIMS

The New York Times this morning runs a remarkable piece by Edward Luttwak called "President Apostate."  It's a blunt, stark appraisal of the hostility Barack Obama may face from Muslims because, in their eyes, he abandoned the faith.  Some of the text is disturbing, almost incendiary.  I'm surprised The Times ran it.  This is going to get a great deal of buzz, and I strongly recommend that you read the entire column.

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

MONDAY:  MAY 12, 2008

Posted at 6:56 a.m. ET

THIS WEEK

Could be a fascinating week.  West Virginia votes tomorrow in the Democratic primary.  It's expected to be a blowout for Hillary Clinton (unless many of her voters, feeling they aren't necessary for a Clinton win, stay home.) The problem for Clinton is that the result has already been discounted, or, on an uglier note, attributed to West Virginia racism.  Already the usual journalistic suspects are providing a picture of the state as white, dumb, poor, and bigoted.  And yet, a Clinton blowout might have a psychological effect, if no other.  It might emphasize to Democratic pros how difficult the race in the fall will be.  West Virginia used to be a reliable Democratic state, but no longer.  The Dems want it back.  They probably can't have it back with Obama.

Also, President Bush goes to the Mideast this week to help celebrate Israel's 60th birthday.  We have no idea what will greet him.  Lebanon has been in turmoil, Iraq is still unstable, and the Iranians have the capacity to make mischief.  In addition, Hamas, which is backed by Iran, is right on Israel's border and can light up the night at will. 

So stay tuned.  Major action ahead.

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

VEEPSTAKES

Already the speculation is heavy with vice presidential choices. It's not that they matter that much.  People don't vote for the vice president, they vote for the president.  It's conventional wisdom in politics, and I believe it's correct, that in most cases - stress most - a vice presidential choice can only hurt, not help.  But there are exceptions.  Jack Kennedy probably owed his 1960 victory to vice presidential candidate Lyndon Johnson's ability to carry Texas. 

The Washington Post - actually reported here in The New York Sun - handicaps the leading candidates in both parties. 

For the Republicans, in order of probability of being chosen:  Goveror Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, former Congressman Rob Portman of Ohio, Governor Charlie Crist of Florida, and Mitt Romney.  The story says of Governor Pawlenty:

Mr. Pawlenty has been elected twice in a Democratic-leaning state that is almost certain to be a battleground. He is liked and respected by both conservatives and moderates. He has also known Mr. McCain for nearly three decades and, at 47, could allay some concerns about Mr. McCain’s age.

On the Democratic side, in order of probability of being chosen:  Governor Kathleeen Sibelius of Kansas, Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, Hillary, Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia, and former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.  On Sibelius:

Picking the second-term Kansas governor would affirm Mr. Obama’s core message of change and would give his run even more historic weight. Ms. Sebelius’s electoral success in traditionally Republican Kansas would also echo Mr. Obama’s pledge to change the electoral map in the fall.

Well, it's one list.  And these lists are entertainment.  Some would add Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana to the GOP list and Senator Jim Webb of Virginia to the Democratic list.  Don't discount the possibility of a major surprise.

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

OBAMA'S VALUES

Even after months of campaigning, Obama is a huge question mark for many Americans.  Doug Schoen, a Democratic strategist who's always struck me as a straight shooter, outlines the values problem for Senator Obama, something that's been an albatross, and likely to remain so unless he takes serious action:

Exit polls in Indiana and North Carolina show clearly that fewer than 60% of white voters believe Mr. Obama shares their values. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, only 45% of the American electorate said they can identify with Mr. Obama's values, compared to 54% who say they can identify with John McCain's values.

Make no mistake, the ongoing controversy over his relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright leaves Mr. Obama vulnerable. So does the flap over his comments at a San Francisco fund-raiser over working-class voters' alleged bitterness leading them to cling to religion and guns. He needs to speak directly and forthrightly to the concerns and fears of these voters if he is to succeed in November.

A prescription:

First, and obviously symbolically, he must start wearing the flag lapel pin. He simply cannot afford to raise doubts about his patriotism.

More substantively, he must also unabashedly support measures that reflect and emphasize his commitment to traditional American values.

And...

Mr. Obama must also demonstrate concretely that he is sympathetic to the victims of crime -- in ways that go beyond the abstract rhetoric of his March 18 speech on race relations in Philadelphia. He needs to make clear, in no uncertain terms, that he understands American concerns about law and order, and that he puts public safety at the top of his priorities.

And...

To win southwestern states such as Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, he must demonstrate his intention to secure our borders, and to integrate those immigrants who are here into American society with a clear path to citizenship. Mr. Obama should also reemphasize his support for the rights of gun owners to hunt and use firearms safely and responsibly.

And...

On foreign policy, Mr. Obama must refute the presumption that he is not fully committed to the war on terror, or that he believes every problem can be solved by negotiating with the leaders of rogue nations. He must reassure people that he understands diplomacy has its limits.

Finally...

Finally, Mr. Obama must connect with people of faith. He needs to reach out explicitly to the evangelical community, both white and black.

That's a thoughtful list.  The problem is, many Democrats, especially on the low-cholesterol left, don't believe in it, which is why Democrats often come up short in the general election.  Doug Schoen has his ear to the ground.  Many Democratic leaders have their ear to National Public Radio.  Who wins within the party will decide the party's future.

May 12, 2008.      Permalink          

DUMBNESS

This should make you culturally comfortable.  Emory University Professor Mark Bauerlein has a new book in which he lists the eight reasons why the young crowd is America's dumbest generation.  The eight are:

1.  They make excellent "Jaywalking'' targets.  (That's the Jay Leno kind.)

2. They don't read books -- and don't want to, either.

3. They can't spell.

4. They get ridiculed for original thought, good writing.

5. Grand Theft Auto IV, etc.  (In other words, video games.)

6. They don't store the information.

7. Because their teachers don't tell them so.

8. Because they're young.

Yeah, the last one is probably the key.  There's always hope in America.  They'll grow up some day.  I hope they don't do something stupid in the interim, like putting Obama in the White House.  Then they'll stay the dumbest generation, and they'll be happy about it.

Be back later.  We're watching the tracking polls.  Check out bulletins at SNIPPETS.

May 12, 2008.      Permalink