EVENING UPDATE,  MARCH 19,  2008

MORE ON THE SPEECH

There's more reaction to the Obama speech on race, and, as with the first round of reactions, it falls pretty predictably.  The left loves the speech.  The right has doubts.  The reaction of the average American is still vague, but tracking polls will start to pick up something in the days ahead.

I do not deny the speech's eloquence, and its frankness on the subject of race.  I think it's correct to say that no presidential candidate has spoken so thoroughly on race in our history.  I stress the word "candidate."  Lincoln, far more economical of words, and speaking in the context of his time, did better as a sitting president. 

Here are my problems with the speech:  First, it would not have been given had the rantings of Obama's minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., not come out.  This suggests that a discussion of race right now is artificial, something imposed on Obama's campaign by circumstance.  It may satisfy the graying legions of the sixties crowd, eager to return to the folk dancing of their youth.  But I can't see where it will do much good unless it is expanded to include subjects, like cultural decline, that can be very painful for black America.  I see no sign of that expansion.

Also, a "discussion" of race is not necessarily helpful if the discussion turns logic on its head.  No one of good will denies racism in American society.  But some commentators are giving Obama a pass on items they should be scrutinizing.  Consider this, from Tim Rutten of the L.A. Times:

Theologically, original sin is the source of man's fallen nature and the root of his imperfection. Obama went on to build on that concept, invoking the authority of his own mixed heritage -- son of a black immigrant father and white mother, raised by a loving white grandmother -- and refusing to reject either Wright, a man of good works as well as extreme rhetoric, or his loving grandmother, who was prone to racial stereotypes. Obama demanded that black anger make an allowance for white anxiety and that white resentment make a place for black grievance.

That's far too generalized.  To say that Rev. Wright is "a man of good works as well as extreme rhetoric" is to forgive a horror story.  It's a little too close to the cliché of apologists in a past generation who informed us that Mussolini made the trains run on time.  Also, to seem to equate Rev. Wright's year-after-year hatreds with a grandmother "who was prone to racial stereotypes" is bizarre.  If grandma was a racist, or even close to it, she would have disowned Barack Obama, or insisted that his mother, her daughter, come down to Earth and raise him herself. 

Our economy is in trouble.  The Iranian nuclear program proceeds.  We must rebuild and expand our defense.  I'm not sure that an abbreviated, artificial discussion of race is what is needed right now. 

When Obama went back on the campaign trail yesterday he attacked John McCain on national security.  If he wants to take on McCain on that subject, fine.  Let's hear it.  Let's also hear the press explore the issue, although, given the general biases of the media, I don't think we'll see quite as much enthusiasm as we see on the subject of race.   After all, how many journalists had college professors who warned about the dangers of a weak national defense?  Show of hands please?  I see one.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink

ANOTHER REASONED VOICE

Just as Michael Gerson provided a reasonable counter to Obama's speech in Urgent Agenda's morning edition, Michael Goodwin, of the New York Daily News, gives us another well-argued critique now:

Barack Obama's speech on race yesterday was an eloquent, heartfelt dissection of America's original sin. He touched all the right bases, historic as well as contemporary, and drew on his own biracial heritage to vividly describe the anger blacks and whites often express about each other.

It was sober and intelligent, a vindication of the risks he took in confronting the hot topic in the first place. But the speech alone can't and didn't secure for Obama the Democratic nomination.

For one thing, there were some contradictions with earlier statements Obama made. For another, there were some problems with his logic, as when he seemed to equate his pastor's outlandish allegations that the U.S. government created AIDS to kill nonwhites with white resentment over job losses and affirmative action.

More importantly, Obama's political problems are bigger than race. Those problems can be summed up in a single word: doubts. They are growing about him at the worst possible time.

And...

It was inevitable, of course, that he would face tests. No rookie could burst onto the stage and sweep to the nomination without near-death experiences. He is having one now that he might not survive.

His mood signaled as much yesterday. He looked uncomfortable, even unhappy, and his few attempts at soaring rhetoric never got off the ground.

There was also a hint of fatalism near the end when he warned against the usual narrow band of race talk, whether it was his relationship with Wright or what he called "some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she's playing the race card."

If that happens, he said, "I can tell you that in the next election, we'll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change."

Even in that self-serving scenario, his image of defeat was incomplete. For one man's distraction is another man's doubt. And right now, doubts about Obama are piling up faster than he can talk them away.

That is correct.  And in Hillary Clinton, and, in the larger race, John McCain, Senator Obama has two skillful, experienced doubt raisers.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink

THE TIME BOMB

The time bomb for the Democrats is Michigan and Florida. There is still no formula in place for including those two states, whose primaries violated party rules, in the national convention.  The Republicans will have a field day with a Dem nominee who's nominated by a convention that excludes two of our largest states.  Hillary Clinton needs those states, which, if they voted in a revote the way they voted originally, for her, would give her an enormous psychological boost.  She made that case in Michigan today:

DETROIT (AP) -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton bluntly challenged Barack Obama to agree to new primaries in Michigan and Florida on Wednesday and said it was ''wrong, and frankly un-American'' not to have the two delegations seated at the Democratic National Convention.

''Senator Obama speaks passionately on the campaign trail about empowering the American people,'' said the former first lady, who trails her rival in delegates won to date. ''Today I am asking him to match those words with actions.''

Obama has yet to declare his support or opposition, although his campaign has raised a number of procedural and legal questions about the most recent proposal for an early June primary in Michigan.

Well said.  Now Clinton must raise her rhetoric to the next level, arguing that the Democratic nomination is "invalid" without those two states.  That is going far, but it's needed.  The phrase "wrong, and frankly un-American" is getting there.  Once Senator Clinton raises questions about the very validity of the nomination, she has Obama where she needs to have him.  He will then have to argue that his nomination would in fact be valid, but it's a hard case to make with two large states not permitted to vote.

The Democratic National Committee, in a memo that surfaced today, puts more pressure on the Obama side:

Democratic National Committee officials have been quoted for a couple of days on background saying they thought a Michigan re-vote fit the rules, and they've finally gone on the record with that in a memo to Rules and Bylaws Committee members:

"We have recently been asked whether the legislation as proposed by Michigan would fit within the framework of the National Party’s Delegate Selection Rules. Our review of this legislation indicates that it would, in fact, fit within the framework of the Rules if it were passed by the state legislature and used by the Michigan State Democratic Party as the basis of drafting a formal Delegate Selection Plan. If a formal Delegate Selection Plan is received we will convene a meeting of the RBC to consider such a Plan."

The memo puts the ball a bit more firmly in Obama's court, where he seems inclined to let it lie.

This issue, like Rev. Wright, will not go away.  But there is no sign that the matter will be settled either.  Advantage McCain, by quite a bit.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink 

POLLING UPDATE

The new Zogby/Reuters poll, issued after my polling report this morning, contains more good news for Senator McCain.  As the Democrats fight, he rises.  It also contains some cheer for Senator Clinton:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama's big national lead over Hillary Clinton has all but evaporated in the U.S. presidential race, and both Democrats trail Republican John McCain, according a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

The poll showed Obama had only a statistically insignificant lead of 47 percent to 44 percent over Clinton, down sharply from a 14 point edge he held over her in February when he was riding the tide of 10 straight victories.

Illinois Sen. Obama, who would be America's first black president, has been buffeted by attacks in recent weeks from New York Sen. Clinton over his fitness to serve as commander-in-chief and by a tempest over racially charged sermons given by his Chicago preacher.

The poll showed Arizona Sen. McCain, who has clinched the Republican presidential nomination, is benefiting from the lengthy campaign battle between Obama and Clinton, who are now battling to win Pennsylvania on April 22.

McCain leads 46 percent to 40 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Obama in the November presidential election, according to the poll.

And all we see ahead is more Democratic infighting.  Recall that the Democrats came out of their 1988 convention, having nominated Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts, ahead by double digits.  Now they're behind in what was supposed to be their sterling-silver year.  The silver is tarnished.  A polishing is required.  No polisher is in sight.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink 

THE TENSIONS GROW

The battle over Tibet is growing.  China is now reacting to threats to enact at least a partial boycott of this year's China Olympics unless Chinese suppression of Tibetan demonstrators ceases:

BEIJING, March 19 -- China's Olympic organizers declared Wednesday that recent anti-Chinese violence in Tibet will not deter plans to relay the Olympic torch through the troubled region, including taking it to the top of Mount Everest.

The torch relay is scheduled to get under way Monday with a handover ceremony in Olympia, Greece, and the beginning of a 130-day, 85,000-mile relay through foreign countries and China.

The explosion of violence in Tibet last Friday and a subsequent crackdown by Chinese security forces have threatened the government's plans for a smooth run-up to the Beijing Games in August. But on Wednesday, Jiang Xiaoyu, executive vice president of the Beijing Organizing Committee for the Olympic Games, vowed to carry on as planned.

"These disturbances are totally against the spirit of the Olympic Games. They are a challenge to the Olympic charter. . . . These so-called activities will not win the hearts and minds of the people and so they are doomed to failure," Jiang promised at a news conference announcing plans for the relay.

Attempts to make the Games a platform for political agendas contravene the Olympic spirit and meet with disapproval by the millions of people who want simply to enjoy the sporting events and pageantry planned to begin Aug. 8, Jiang said. This holds true, he added, for whatever kind of political goals activists may have in mind: humanitarian concerns in Darfur, Tibetan independence, Muslim nationalism in the neighboring Xinjiang region or human rights for Chinese in general.

That sounds fairly desperate.  Clearly, the Chinese are concerned that their great show for the world might turn into a bust, broadcast live and in HD by NBC. 

So far, the White House has not reacted to ideas expressed by the French foreign minister to boycott the opening ceremony - attended by world leaders - but not the games themselves.  It would be noble for President Bush to close out his administration by staying home and siding with freedom.  But money talks, and China is big business, and Condi, a Bush 41 trainee, is at State and...you know the rest.  Sadly.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink 

JOB OPPORTUNITY!

Finally, in this tight economy, it's always a pleasure to pass on a job opportunity.

Do you like making people pretty?  Do you like regular hours?  Do you want big bucks?  Have you considered dermatology?

Okay, you have to go to medical school, but what's four years for a dream?

The skin doctors - loaded with Botox and ready to make you a hot date - are medicine's golden group right now.  Consider:

As thousands of medical students await word this week on residency programs, two specialties concerned with physical appearance — dermatology and plastic surgery — are among the most competitive.

Only 61 percent of seniors at American medical schools whose first choice was dermatology received a residency in that field last year, compared with 98 percent for those whose first choice was internal medicine and 99 percent for those seeking family medicine, according to a report by the Association of American Medical Colleges and the National Resident Matching Program, which pairs candidates and programs. Although there are far fewer positions in dermatology (320 residencies in 2007) than in internal medicine (5,517) and family medicine (2,603), the field is attracting some of the best and brightest future doctors.

Seniors accepted in 2007 as residents in dermatology and two other appearance-related fields — plastic surgery and otolaryngology (ear, nose and throat doctors, some of whom perform facial cosmetic surgery) — had the highest median medical-board scores and the highest percentage of members in the medical honor society among 18 specialties, the report said.

The vogue for such specialties is part of a migration of a top tier of American medical students from branches of health care that manage major diseases toward specialties that improve the life of patients — and the lives of physicians, with better pay, more autonomy and more-controllable hours.

“It is an unfortunate circumstance that you can spend an hour with a patient treating them for diabetes and hypertension and make $100, or you can do Botox and make $2,000 in the same time,” said Dr. Eric C. Parlette, 35, a dermatologist in Chestnut Hill, Mass., who chose his field because he wanted to perform procedures, like skin-cancer surgery and cosmetic treatments, while keeping regular hours and earning a rewarding salary.

What can one say?  I guess it's the market.  I can just see some actress in Beverly Hills bragging that her plastic surgeon was a Rhodes scholar.

But what about the record of the guy saving lives?  Hmm.  Let's think about something else.

And, checking my pulse, I'll be back tomorrow.

March 19, 2008.  Permalink