EVENING UPDATE,  MARCH 26,  2008

MORE POLLS

We published some polling data earlier today.  Here's more.  Rasmussen tracking reports McCain up ten points over Obama.  But Gallup has McCain up two points.  Average them together and we get a six-point lead.

Rasmussen has McCain up seven points over Clinton.  Gallup has McCain up two points over Clinton.  Average them and we get a 4.5-point lead. 

McCain must be pleased at where he is, but he has to hustle.  Most of the press will probably come down on him once the campaign gets going.  That is especially true if Obama is the Democratic nominee.  Love conquers all.

Rasmussen, by the way, has Clinton up ten over Obama in Pennsylvania, the next big contest, taking place on April 22nd.  I notice that the political trash talkers are now trying to take the spotlight off Pennsylvania and place it on North Carolina, where Obama is favored, in part because of the heavy African-American population, and in part because of college towns like Durham and Chapel Hill.  North Carolina votes May 6th.  If Obama wins, as expected, he may try to close down the whole primary process there.  I doubt if it will work.  Hillary seems determined to go to the convention.  And the TV people will love that show.

March 26, 2008.  Permalink

THE MIDEAST - A PERSONAL REPORT

One of the pleasures of running Urgent Agenda is hearing from our very intelligent and knowledgeable readers.  A number of readers have personal experience in dealing with issues that we discuss here.  Earlier today, for example, we published observations about the now-notorious Merrill McPeak, Senator Obama's chief defense adviser. 

Recently we received a brief set of personal observations from an American traveling in an official capacity to several points in the Mideast.  I thought you'd be interested.  Here it is:

Just back from my two week trip to the Middle East and your website has been a great way to catch up. Thanks as always.
 
Unfortunately, did not get to the Gaza Strip as originally planned…Egyptian government got cold feet about the prospects of a bunch of official Americans milling around Raffa.  I did have a great time and was particularly impressed by Israel.  The order of our visit went Egypt, Jordan, and then Israel and it was quick lesson in modernity and the West.  I paint the following broad-brushed and surely exaggerated pictures:
 
Egypt is a police state that is corrupt, backward, and stymied.  The people there have no real hope of significant change and have chosen the US as a convenient scapegoat for most of the world’s ills.  The opposition is either co-opted (Western-style opposition) or jailed at election times (Muslim Brotherhood).  A dirty, unpleasant country.  Military officers are Soviet in their mindsets and attitudes…no initiative allowed.  
 
Thanks to their king, Jordan is doing a surprisingly good job in finding a balance between the West and Islam.  Cities and countryside are almost European in appearance and attitudes.  Military is competent. King must deal with the fact that 60% of the population is Palestinian; there are also uncounted numbers of Iraqi refugees in Jordan.  No one knows how many…estimates range from a couple of hundred thousand to a million.  Amman appeared to be bustling with economic activity, new office buildings, new hotels, etc.  Surprisingly warm relations with Israel. People seemed hopeful, though Bush and US policy are popular whipping boys.
 
Israel is self-confident, hard-working, and thoroughly competent.  Their military officers are young, experienced, tough and smart.  They are on the leading edge of technology and tactics that are of great import to the US (UAVs, border-monitoring systems, etc).  I doubt we will see a Palestinian state. They have no cards to play.  The Israelis make it clear that they are interested in security, security, security and do not care much about a two-state solution.  They are not interested in NY Times editorials or toothless UN resolutions.  Additionally, the wall construction (“we hate it but it is necessary”) goes apace and seems to be working.  Settlements on the West Bank are seemingly everywhere:  modern, attractive, and well-protected—hard to envision circumstances under which they will be given up or traded.  One real problem:  demographics…time is not on Israel’s side.
 
Here’s a difference between Egypt and Israel that really struck me:
 
Lunch with Egypt: a multi-course catered affair with dozens of major generals in one of their many ornate officer’s clubs.  Anxious to impress.  They need our assistance and but, I suspect, secretly resent it.
 
Lunch with Israel: same lunch as everyone else with everyone else (enlisted, officers) in a ramshackle chow hall.  Self-confident enough not to worry about what we think of them.  Appreciate our assistance, but would drive on—and succeed—without it.  
 
 Anyway, these are my impressions based on a whirlwind tour through the region.  

It's refreshing to read an honest, personal report, without officialese.

March 26, 2008. Permalink

ANOTHER REASON TO VOTE FOR McCAIN

The supreme exalted and most high leader of Venezuela now speaks about the future, and all good leftists must listen.  So come in from the faculty lounge and gather round:

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, a socialist and fierce U.S. critic, warned on Tuesday that relations with Washington could worsen if Republican candidate John McCain wins this year's presidential election.

Chavez said he hopes the United States and Venezuela can work better together when his ideological foe, U.S. President George W. Bush, leaves the White House next year, but he said McCain seemed "warlike."

"Sometimes one says, 'worse than Bush is impossible,' but we don't know," Chavez told foreign correspondents. "McCain also seems to be a man of war."

Chavez -- who has called Bush "the devil", "a donkey" and 'Mr Danger" -- accuses the United States of having imperial designs in Latin America and says the White House has plotted his overthrow.

McCain calls Chavez a dictator who wants to emulate retired Cuban leader Fidel Castro.

Although Venezuela remains a key supplier of oil to the United States, relations have steadily deteriorated since Bush took office in 2001.

Don't you love it?  Relations have deteriorated since Bush took office.  Has nothing to do with Chavez.  Why he's just a man of the people, apparently trying to sell a TV series called "Mr. Danger."  I'd watch.  I'd laugh.

March 26, 2008. Permalink

MAJOR HOLLYWOOD BULLETIN

Oliver Stone is making a movie about George Bush:

Elizabeth Banks is going from the world of adult films to the White House.

The actress, who recently wrapped shooting Kevin Smith's "Zack and Miri Make a Porno," is in final negotiations to portray Laura Bush in "W," Oliver Stone's biopic on the life and presidency of George W. Bush.

Josh Brolin already is on board to play Bush in the biopic, which begins shooting in late April in Shreveport, La.

Would you please mark that on your calendars.  I know all of you will want to have reserved seats for this Hollywood/left take on the president.  I do hope it will be researched the way Stone researched "JFK," so we will all know the truth at the end.

Why is it that I think I'd prefer "Singin' in the Rain"?

Why is it that I think you'd agree?

I'll be back tomorrow.

March 26, 2008. Permalink