LATE EVENING POSTING,  MARCH 29,  2008

Posted at 10:25 p.m.  ET

HILLARY SAYS IT

Nixon wasn't the only one to make things "perfectly clear."

Hillary Clinton solicited an interview with the Washington Post to state that she's going all the way, but not in the sense her husband's interns did:

NEW ALBANY, Ind., March 29 -- In her most definitive comments to date on the subject, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton sought Saturday to put to rest any notion that she will drop out of the presidential race, pledging in an interview to not only compete in all the remaining primaries but also continue until there is a resolution of the disqualified results in Florida and Michigan.

A day after Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean urged the candidates to end the race by July 1, Clinton defied that call by declaring that she will take her campaign all the way to the Aug. 25-28 convention if necessary, potentially setting up the prolonged and divisive contest that party leaders are increasingly anxious to avoid.

"I know there are some people who want to shut this down and I think they are wrong," Clinton said in an interview during a campaign stop here Saturday. "I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started and until we see what happens in the next 10 contests and until we resolve Florida and Michigan. And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention -- that's what credentials committees are for.

"We cannot go forward until Florida and Michigan are taken care of, otherwise the eventual nominee will not have the legitimacy that I think will haunt us," said the senator from New York. "I can imagine the ads the Republican Party and John McCain will run if we don't figure out how we can count the votes in Michigan and Florida."

I don't like writers who remind you that they've been right on something.  So, I won't note that I've written that Clinton should say that a nominee from a convention that excludes two large states will have no legitimacy.  I will not note that I've written that, that I've actually put it on the internet, that people have read it. Won't say it. 

Do you have that now?

This is getting juicy.  I'd love to see Clinton and Obama mix it up at the August convention.  We haven't seen anything like this since the 1972 Dem convention was taken over by American Friends of Mao.

Fun ahead.

Be back tomorrow. 

March 29, 2008.  Permalink 

EARLY EVENING POSTINGS,  MARCH 29,  2008

Posted at 7:55 p.m. ET

MERKEL TO BOYCOTT OLYMPICS

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will boycott this summer's China Olympics.  She becomes the first leader of a major power to do so:

The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, yesterday became the first world leader to decide not to attend the Olympics in Beijing.

As pressure built for concerted western protests to China over the crackdown in Tibet, EU leaders prepared to discuss the crisis for the first time today, amid a rift over whether to boycott the Olympics.

The disclosure that Germany is to stay away from the games' opening ceremonies in August could encourage President Nicolas Sarkozy of France to join in a gesture of defiance and complicate Gordon Brown's determination to attend the Olympics.

Donald Tusk, Poland's prime minister, became the first EU head of government to announce a boycott on Thursday and he was promptly joined by President Václav Klaus of the Czech Republic, who had previously promised to travel to Beijing.

The boycott by a German leader has enormous symbolic significance.  There was no more politically potent Olympics than the 1936 games in Berlin, held under the eye of Adolf Hitler.  The failure of world leaders then to condemn the Nazi regime by making some gesture involving the Olympics gave Hitler a substantial boost in prestige.  Angela Merkel's action now comes at precisely the right time. 

I recall a comment by an Israeli that the late Golda Meir was the best man in the Israeli government.  Maybe Angela Merkel will emerge as the best man in the Western alliance.

We await a comment from the White House.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

SUPERB PIECE

Earlier today I noted that a film critical of Islam had been removed from a website because of extreme threats against the site's staff.  It was not, as I pointed out, a great day for free speech.

With that example in mind, I highly commend to you a superb piece by Greg Sheridan, foreign editor of The Australian.  It is simply titled, "We must learn more about our enemies."  The article starts with a report of connections between the late regime of Saddam Hussein and terrorism.  But most of the piece deals with Hamas, the extremist movement that today controls Gaza, and it uses Hamas's own words and thoughts.  Please read.  It may sicken you, but you've got to know this.  The piece concludes:

But the most telling feature of the Hamas charter is its pervasive religiosity.

The failure to understand that Islamist terrorism is a religious, ideological movement, with a coherent if grotesque world view, is one of many failures of Western commentators. Reading the Islamists' documents would be a good place to start in remedying that so far abject failure.

The piece provides a link to the Hamas charter itself.  By the way, have you ever seen that printed in any American newspaper?  Have you ever heard it described on television?  Hmm, I didn't think so.  It's like going through the Nazi era and pretending there was no Mein Kampf.  A lot of people did.  A lot of those people were in positions of power in government and journalism.  They are not remembered well.

Please read.

I'll be back later, or tomorrow.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

SATURDAY AFTERNOON POSTINGS,  MARCH 29,  2008

Posted at 3:28 p.m. ET

THE TRACKERS

New tracking polls released today contain some dramatic news.  Obama has recovered somewhat from pastorgate.  According to the latest Rasmussen tracker, McCain is up five points over Obama.  He was up ten points as little as two days ago.  Rasmussen says:

Looking ahead to the General Election in November, John McCain now enjoys a bigger lead when matched against Hillary Clinton rather than Barack Obama. McCain leads Barack Obama 48% to 43% and leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 40% (see recent daily results). McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 44%. Obama’s reviews are 50% favorable and 48% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 42% favorable, 56% unfavorable (see recent daily results). Today is the first time Obama’s favorables have returned to the 50% level since his former Pastor became news.

Trackers are only estimates, snapshots in time.  But Obama's 48 percent unfavorable, compared to his much better standing several months ago, indicates that he can be wounded in political combat, and has been.

Perhaps more significant, Rasmussen reports on state and electoral-college results:

New polling released today for Virginia shows McCain with a solid lead over both Democrats. The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows the Electoral College race is much more competitive than it was a month ago. Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 247 to 240 (see summary of state-by-state results). New polling data will be released later today for Wisconsin.

Horse race coming up.  It's going to get ugly, and, sadly, race will play a part.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

THE CHILLING EFFECT

A professor at a major university alerts me to the fact that "Fitna," a new film by an anti-immigrant Dutch politician that is harshly critical of Islam, has now been removed from a major website that was showing it.  The website cited threats to its staff  "of a very serious nature."  The website, in a statement, also said that it was a sad day for free speech.

I have not seen the film, and don't care to.  It may be vulgar, for all I know.  Or, it may be accurate.  Neither is the point.  The removal of a film under threat of death is an offense to all of us.  Sadly, we are seeing more and more of this pattern, especially in Europe.

Also offensive is a statement by the Dutch prime minister denouncing the film.  If he wishes to denounce it, fine.  But where is the equal denunciation of the vulgar anti-Christian and anti-Semitic stuff put out by radical Muslim groups in Europe?  The leftists and "multiculturalists" generally front for this material, urging us to "understand" grievances.

After the next terror attack that kills thousands, I wonder if this same crowd will urge the Islamists to understand our grievances.  Any answers?  Anyone?

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

More later.

SATURDAY, MARCH 29, 2008

SAINT BARACK TAKES ON THE WORLD

Barack Obama has outlined elements of his foreign policy.

Urgent Agenda may offer cash prizes and possibly some free kitchen instruments, only available here, to anyone who can figure this out:

"The truth is that my foreign policy is actually a return to the traditional bipartisan realistic policy of George Bush's father, of John F. Kennedy, of, in some ways, Ronald Reagan, and it is George Bush that's been naive and it's people like John McCain and, unfortunately, some Democrats that have facilitated him acting in these naive ways that have caused us so much damage in our reputation around the world," he said.

Look, maybe I'm missing something, but doesn't Obama realize that the foreign policies of Kennedy, Reagan and Bush 41 had important differences?  He also said this:

"I do think that Sen. Clinton would understand that George Bush's policies have failed, but in many ways she has been captive to the same politics that led her to vote for authorizing the war in Iraq," he said. "Since 9/11 the conventional wisdom has been that you've got to look tough on foreign policy by voting and acting like the Republicans, and I disagree with that."

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds said Obama represents an absolute departure from Reagan and other presidents whose strength in the face of an outspoken and determined enemy won the greater peace for a generation.

And that is exactly right.  Obama never speaks of victory.  He never speaks of an "outspoken and determined enemy."  His vague foreign policy prescriptions will not lead to peace, but will lead either to war or to a slow erosion of our position around the world. 

History doesn't repeat itself, but the psychology of history repeats itself.  The psychology gripping the Democratic Party and its probable candidate for president is remarkably similar to that of the late 1930s - let's not upset anyone, and let's not listen to the "fearmongers."

Anyone who can be so casual as to pour Kennedy, Reagan, and Bush 41 into the same Cuisinart, and flip it on, hoping for some logical mix, will never have my vote.

But I'm sure he'll have Rev. Wright's.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

THE AG IS SCARED

By virtually all accounts, our new attorney general, Michael Mukasey, is a fine and careful man.  So, we should take his words seriously. Unlike Obama, he is warning us of dangers greater than he'd imagined when he took office, as The Wall Street Journal reports:

In Michael Mukasey, President Bush finally seems to have an Attorney General worthy of the current moment. In Nancy Pelosi's hometown this week, the former judge who once tried terror cases told the Commonwealth Club audience that even he had no idea of the extent of the threat.

Speaking of what he hears in his national security briefings, Mr. Mukasey said, "It is way beyond – way beyond anything that I knew or believed. So, if I was picked for the level of my knowledge . . . that was a massive piece of false advertising."

As reported by the New York Sun, he also offered a perspective, partly personal as a former Manhattanite, on the necessity of warrantless antiterror surveillance. Before 9/11, Mr. Mukasey said, "We knew that there had been a call from someplace that was known to be a safe house in Afghanistan and we knew that it came to the United States. We didn't know precisely where it went. We've got" – here the Attorney General paused with emotion – "we've got 3,000 people who went to work that day, and didn't come home, to show for that."

Pay no attention to that, no attention at all.  Don't you know it's the politics of fear?  The AG is probably some McCain lackey, right? 

Why of course, say the Obamans. 

Further...

The AG also addressed why immunity from lawsuits is vital for the telecom companies that cooperated with the surveillance after 9/11. "Forget the liability" the phone companies face, Mr. Mukasey said. "We face the prospect of disclosure in open court of what they did, which is to say the means and the methods by which we collect foreign intelligence against foreign targets." Al Qaeda would love that. The cynics will call this "fear-mongering," but most Americans will want to make sure we don't miss the next terror call.

If we do miss it, you can be sure Nancy Pelosi will blame it on Bush, even if it's three years from now.  And a good chunk of the press will try to "understand" our attackers' "rage" at "our policies."  Sound familiar?

Listen to Michael Mukasey.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

CURVEBALL - REMEMBER?

Another report in The Wall Street Journal is a cautionary tale about the need for accurate intelligence.  Remember Curveball?  This will remind you:

In the long history of U.S. intelligence fiascos, few have been as minutely examined as the "Curveball" episode – the source whose fraudulent claims were largely responsible for the pre-Iraq War view that Saddam Hussein possessed biological weapons. So it's worth noting what a new, remarkable report from the German magazine Der Spiegel tells us about the spy who lied.

Curveball was "owned" by the German intelligence service, the BND, not our own.  Consider:

His claims to having inside knowledge of Saddam's illicit weapons program quickly made him a prized asset of Germany's intelligence service, the BND. So convinced were the Germans of the reliability of his information that in the fall of 2001 they purchased 35 million doses of smallpox vaccine for fear of what Saddam might be cooking up.

More remarkable is that even after September 11 – when then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder promised "infinite solidarity" with the U.S. – the German government refused to allow the CIA to interview Curveball in person. Often, the Germans resorted to dishonest pretexts for their lack of cooperation, such as that Curveball didn't speak English, when in fact he spoke it fluently (and as if nobody in the CIA spoke German or Arabic). "It was a blockade that made it impossible for any other service to validate his information," David Kay, who ran the Iraq Survey Group that looked for WMD after the war, told Der Spiegel.

Now we're getting somewhere.  It may be that the lack of cooperation from our German "ally" made the fiasco possible:

In November 2002, according to Der Spiegel, Curveball's disclosures formed the centerpiece of a top secret briefing by the BND to the foreign affairs committee of the German parliament. This caused one of those who were briefed to note the "enormous discrepancy between the public statements made by the government" – which opposed the war and downplayed the Iraq threat – "and the knowledge it had in its possession."

Absolutely intriguing.  The German government opposed the war, so it held back from us a man whose "information" might start that war.  Had we had a chance to examine Curveball, we might have detected his corruption.  As the Journal comments:

As for Germany, it has yet to really account for its own large contribution to the bad intelligence – intelligence it later pretended never to have believed in the first place. If the Curveball story teaches anything, it's that the intelligence failures regarding Iraq were world-wide and included many of those who would later become the war's fiercest critics.

But do any of those critics care about the truth?  Do you see any of them asking the right questions?  Don't hold your breath.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink

McCAIN BEGINS

Watch for this.  John McCain has released his first general-election ad.  I've seen snippets, and it's very good.  It gives me confidence that the McCainiacs know how to appeal to the American people:

Sen. John McCain yesterday released the first TV commercial of the general election campaign, offering a look at his military sacrifice as a prisoner of war and his readiness to be president — a positive ad that political analysts say will precede the most expensive, and potentially negative, advertising campaigns ever seen from both sides.

With his two Democratic opponents still battling for their party's presidential nomination, Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, is looking to extend his honeymoon with voters by reintroducing himself as a leader, tax-cutter and the man who spent years as a POW in the Vietnam War.

The new ad, titled "624787," which was his military serial number, calls him "the American president Americans have been waiting for."

It begins with Mr. McCain giving a campaign speech and ends with the footage from Vietnam of then-Lt. Cmdr. McCain in a hospital bed as a POW. Sandwiched in between are headlines from papers touting his support for tax cuts, and editorials describing him as a "real hero" and "ready on Day One."

Good stuff.  Red meat where it's called for. 

I'll return later in the day.

March 29, 2008.  Permalink